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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


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get yourself a decent one http://www.russell-scientific.co.uk/kew-barometers-11-c.asp

costs approx £1350, a scientific mercury barometer will last 50+years and will remain accurate/stable.

 

My station mean temperature anomaly for the month so far stands at +1.7C compared to the 1981-2010 average..

 

 

Not a snowball's chance in hell that I'd be able to afford that! Take the zero off the end of the price and I'd think about it! Posted Image  Anyhoo, something is far wrong up here. Today we have.....no wind....no rain....no winter snow ( as if! ). We have clear blue skies and the sun is shining on the village across the loch. So calm...so lovely! HAH! I'm an idiot if I think that'll last! Best make the most of it then...

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Very seasonal here too currently 0c with frost that has  come in harder since first light. A photo of Ben Wyvis emerging from the clouds in all her winter glory from a distance and close up over the town of Nairn.post-2744-0-72839300-1388313487_thumb.jppost-2744-0-44237500-1388313508_thumb.jp Hills  have really taken a plastering in the last few weeks and some huge drifts will have been formed.Reminders of this years winter will be around for a long time on the hills next spring and summer.

Just to add side roads are very slippery this morning with sheet ice everywhere.

Edited by Northernlights
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Morning. 2.8c/1,4c/WSW. Lovely morning here and quite chilly.

I am quite enjoying chart watching at the moment as there is plenty to look for. Really don't understand all the despondency on the MOD.  Ridging is beginning to appear which will change the setup from what we have been staring at for weeks on end?. Still a stormy and wet outlook for a while yet unfortunately, but I think the NH is getting its act together in our favour.  I think from the second half of January we will notice a big change.  Don't shoot the messenger!Posted Image

Edited by Blitzen
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Pleasant day so far with scattered clouds. Woke at 7 to let dog oot and my thumping head was met with rather chilly air, and frost on the ground, and a strange phenomenon of nae wind. Currently 6c. 

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ECM mean anomalies charts still looking good this morning and continuing the theme with heights building to our north with the first piece if energy dropping into Europe the Atlantic being blocked off and shows what LS was alluding to last night with the trough over us at the end dropping south

 

post-18233-0-29985000-1388326011_thumb.gpost-18233-0-88274100-1388326011_thumb.gpost-18233-0-20241300-1388326013_thumb.gpost-18233-0-64804000-1388326027_thumb.gpost-18233-0-17525300-1388326028_thumb.g

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Morning. 2.8c/1,4c/WSW. Lovely morning here and quite chilly.

I am quite enjoying chart watching at the moment as there is plenty to look for. Really don't understand all the despondency on the MOD.  Ridging is beginning to appear which will change the setup from what we have been staring at for weeks on end?. Still a stormy and wet outlook for a while yet unfortunately, but I think the NH is getting its act together in our favour.  I think from the second half of January we will notice a big change.  Don't shoot the messenger!Posted Image

 

 

decided to go in the MOD thread to see what you were meaning and your right about the despondency can see a few of them contemplating jumping off the nearest cliff if the models don't show anything good soon Posted Image

 

it is a bit weird the now America have been experiencing all the cold so far and now they are calling for us to see some which I would tend to lean towards believing them as they will have been looking through the patterns in great detail over the past few weeks due to the massive arctic blasts and will probably have a better hold on what will happen next plus they seem to be well respected and knowledgeable people.

 

I think the main problem within the MOD thread is any time we see something semi decent pop up in the models there is always someone ready to put it to bed referencing the strat which might be a valid point but I think the strat may be more open to favouring us seeing some cold than it was weeks ago.

 

another thing I haven't worked out really as well is with this strong PV keeping the cold bottled over the arctic how has America managed to see such cold blasts like they have been seeing I have a thoughts which will tie in with my blocking theory but need more time to find out a little more on the subject.

 

I am also with you concerning the second half of January seeing a big change and think the pieces may be falling into place over the next ten days.

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This winter is beginning to feel like a chase again looking for the good charts but still hopeful based on some of the LRFs that indeed this could be a more traditional winter with jan and February seeing the best of the weather....best being snowy for avoidance of doubt :)

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well the GFS 12z took a step in the right direction today and was pretty good up till 192hr where it went wrong from there but it has thrown in the ridge in the atlantic seen in the charts below which is in time with my thoughts for the first push of heights to our north but unfortunately due to the GFS place energy from the PV over northern Greenland this wasn't able to stick this time round but watch for this in future should the models go down the route I have been thinking. 

 

post-18233-0-54181800-1388337026_thumb.ppost-18233-0-08159200-1388337028_thumb.ppost-18233-0-79077500-1388337027_thumb.ppost-18233-0-18588900-1388337029_thumb.ppost-18233-0-77134900-1388337029_thumb.p

 

if this is the pattern then there are still a few small things to be worked out by GFS and we move on to see if the ECM can go down the same lines or not.

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Hey folk's,

 

You can kindof guess what the weather is in my area, besides in not going to tell you! i decided i am in a major huff now the storms have passed....you see i can understand scientific terms like "blawin a hoolie"  and predictions like "hatten down the batches"  but now im completely lost lol   I thought until a few day's ago some of these charts you are mentioning are type's of mazda'sPosted Image

 

Anyhoo crystal here today and stove is stoked up ready for me to "get ma hid" around some of the things you are saying lol   Think of me as a fish out of water only flapping about on the bank lol

Right, im away to pull the batteries oot my weather station in temper Posted Image

 

if i can borrow the neghbors ladder Posted Image   hope your all ok! 

just seen your newest post  bus i understand that one!!!  woop woop Posted Image

Edited by lupe
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just seen your newest post  bus i understand that one!!!  woop woop Posted Image

 

don't worry you will be amazed how quick you pick things up and by the end of winter you will be catching up with what everything means

 

 

People on another forum (not weather) are talking about Piers Thingy's forecast, saying a major storm and snow for new years day. Any truth in that?

 

there will be windy weather about but looks like the worst of the wind is to be down south and any snow around will just be over higher ground for the majority of us it will just be rain if anything falls from the sky.

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well the GFS 12z took a step in the right direction today and was pretty good up till 192hr where it went wrong from there but it has thrown in the ridge in the atlantic seen in the charts below which is in time with my thoughts for the first push of heights to our north but unfortunately due to the GFS place energy from the PV over northern Greenland this wasn't able to stick this time round but watch for this in future should the models go down the route I have been thinking. 

 

 

 

 

Exactly! I was pleased to see that attempt at ridging in the Atlantic and it wasn't there on yesterday's runs (certainly not as robust as it was today)   OK it failed on this attempt but it was interesting. Some on the MOD (not all) will not be happy unless they see 6' of snow programmed for their front doorstep by the weekend!  This is an evolving situation, it is going to take time. In my opinion tho' things are moving in the right direction.

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Exactly! I was pleased to see that attempt at ridging in the Atlantic and it wasn't there on yesterday's runs (certainly not as robust as it was today)   OK it failed on this attempt but it was interesting. Some on the MOD (not all) will not be happy unless they see 6' of snow programmed for their front doorstep by the weekend!  This is an evolving situation, it is going to take time. In my opinion tho' things are moving in the right direction.

 

I cant really say anything about the people not being happy unless there is lots of snow in the forecast as I kind of had my wee moment at the start of winter Posted Image

 

its always the case in pattern changes especially when we flip to a cold pattern the models go haywire till they eventually sort out what they picked up in the first place.

 

its like they see something and say ' no no no that's not right get lost' then they fight against it till they eventually get round to the realisation the pattern is the correct one. 

 

I'm liking the 500hpa realtime modelling as this is showing the arctic region already filling with high pressure so heights to the north somewhere looks a good shot and we just have to wait and see if it falls in the right place for us.

 

post-18233-0-86498100-1388342893_thumb.g

 

also heights filling the arctic at 200 hpa

 

post-18233-0-84966500-1388343059_thumb.g

 

heres the links for anyone who is reading who may not know where to find this

 

500hpa  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

 

200hpa  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

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Posted · Hidden by Buriedundersnow, December 29, 2013 - think i got it a bit wrong and didnt pick up right what he was saying
Hidden by Buriedundersnow, December 29, 2013 - think i got it a bit wrong and didnt pick up right what he was saying

seems JOE B thinks there is something wrong in the models just now as well he is thinking that 27th on the left was right which is what the ECM has been pointing towards and on the right is today for same date and he thinks its wrong so this goes to show what I was saying above that the models have gone a little mental trying to sort out if the pattern is correct

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 1h

http://Weatherbell.com  DID NOT BUY GFS ENSEMBLES from Friday for what is now day 9. Look at Ensemble change! pic.twitter.com/YGOfQjYoET

 

post-18233-0-15549700-1388344555_thumb.p

 
 

 

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Interesting T168,216,240 on the ECM with the Atlantic ridging once again trying to make inroads. Plenty to keep model watching interesting until there is a better handle on the pattern going forward. Patience required.

 

What I would call a mini ramp from John Holmes :  (might have been at the sherry!)Posted Image Interesting thoughts though......

 

Sorry folks...it won't let me pick up the link (PDF) but have a scoot over to the MOD and read for yourselves.

Edited by Blitzen
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see with all these sting jets and bombing lows we seem to be seeing these days they should bring out weather stations with there usual pressure falling steady and falling rapidly with another added level.

 

Posted Image F%*KING HELL HIDE NOW!

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