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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Damp and dark here, but not windy. I'm missing the sun! Hoping it will visit Perth maybe on Wednesday! 

 whats happening on Wednesday OTR

 

oh and update yer bio as it says rubbing your hands in glee at potential in the charts on October 20th.....although it might apply to now :)

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Afternoon all! Blawy with some rain flung in for good measure, temp currently 7c, pressure 963. Getting a bit repetitive this, eh? And boring. Any decent changes on the horizon?

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

A heavy shower passed over at 1.40pm, no thunder and sun out now.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Very dull this morning, then with heavy rain and very blustery wind. More heavy rain showers off and on all day so far.

 

Bored stiff of wind and rain, even mair seek watchin aw the snaw in America on the news :(Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

not much clearer today with the models and we still have the ECM differing from the mean anomalies charts on the 0z

 

post-18233-0-00079700-1389019830_thumb.gpost-18233-0-65012500-1389019830_thumb.gpost-18233-0-51736800-1389019844_thumb.gpost-18233-0-61326600-1389019840_thumb.g

 

hopefully wont be long till we see which is right if we ever doPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

couple of pics to show the cold in the USA.

 

in this pic that isn't cold cloud tops that's it picking up its the surface cold on the satellite

 

post-18233-0-35721000-1389020119_thumb.j

 

heres on showing just how cold it is

 

post-18233-0-87722800-1389020119_thumb.j

 

heres a satellite loop where u can see the air working down over the country

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Newburgh(Aberdeenshire)
  • Location: Newburgh(Aberdeenshire)

Well I am really bored of this wet grey windy spell.  Been talking in work about the current US situation and we rekon we have only had to scrape the car of ice a maximum of 2/3 monings this winter so far!! Which is fankly just incredible when we are now into January.

 

On a positive note i have booked my holidays off for the last 2 weeks in july so if you want warm weather stay at home those 2 weeks as its guarenteed to be since im away!

 

Hopefully we can get some sort of change into the weather soon!

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

well the UKMO says scandi not a chance, move on, have some westerlies

 

post-18233-0-52255300-1389028161_thumb.g

 

GFS 12z gives it a go and says no as well

 

post-18233-0-66716300-1389028339_thumb.p

 

lets see what the ECM does but with it looking to sink the high and its anomalies charts going against it I don't think scandi is on the cards

 

only plus point is UKMO still has cold uppers hanging out west that could move in

 

post-18233-0-63183900-1389028558_thumb.g

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

 whats happening on Wednesday OTR

 

oh and update yer bio as it says rubbing your hands in glee at potential in the charts on October 20th.....although it might apply to now Posted Image

 

Well its looking dry on wednesday so i figure we might see the sun - Im aware there are one or two flaws with this theory but Im hanging onto it!

 

Ahh yes I think I maybe jinxed the weather after that so I shall leave my bio be lol! 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

its not all doom and gloom with the UKMO if its right.

 

heres yesterdays 12z at 144hr with the main area circled

 

post-18233-0-70795300-1389029468_thumb.g

 

now todays 12z at 120hr so same time and you see the area circled has been flattened out to give a more westerly

 

post-18233-0-96493600-1389029471_thumb.g

 

now we still have the chance of snow off a westerly but lets hope the UKMO keeps flattening this and we may see the 850's line up more like the yellow line below and have less warm air getting in the mix.

 

post-18233-0-64855000-1389029472_thumb.g

 

so still snow chances about just what uppers we will get is still up for grabs.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

finally ECM starting to come along to its anomalies charts.

 

the anomalies charts are the 0z so you will have to use you imagination to see the 12hr gaps to match

 

post-18233-0-19447800-1389033723_thumb.gpost-18233-0-22394000-1389033737_thumb.gpost-18233-0-71168700-1389033728_thumb.gpost-18233-0-11923400-1389033738_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM 12z has taken a step towards what I am looking for and with the other models taking steps in this direction as well it looks like we may be going down this path.

 

first step we see in the ECM chart below with energy beings transferred under the heights to our north and the heights staying steady and hopefully this will stay through future runs and also the UKMO hinted towards this earlier as well.

 

post-18233-0-52103800-1389038868_thumb.g

 

GEFS also trying to come join the party with quite a few Greenland height rises thrown in and also the mean 240hr shows no real low heights to our north with some ridging then next to it we see the spread chart for 240hr and it shows there is quite good agreement in this area.

 

post-18233-0-13047800-1389038874_thumb.ppost-18233-0-86741700-1389038882_thumb.p

 

hopefully a trend we see continue as when it comes to cold Greenland is the preferred position as Scandinavia can be a hard block to get in place right to benefit us and to keep there without it sinking etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

BUS, I hope you're right!

I was out earlier picking the eldest son up from football training. Lovely clear night with the moon and plenty of stars on show, start of Jan, 4hrs or so since sunset, what would you expect the temperature to be? Below zero with a frost already? Above zero, but only by a degree or two and dropping? Oh no, we have 8.5C, which is quite ridiculous really!

Wind picking up again but only 0.5mm of rain today so far.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

so do I RAVELIN cos like I said scandi highs are just so easy sunk or absorbed into the Russian high or sat to far east to benefit us where as Greenland highs or heights to our north are better for seeing the cold.

 

don't get me wrong if a scandi high set up right I wouldn't kick it out the bed for farting but just personally prefer Greenland.

 

ECM 500 anomalies charts stay solid with heights to our north and out west.

 

post-18233-0-34645100-1389042809_thumb.gpost-18233-0-65868500-1389042814_thumb.gpost-18233-0-64161900-1389042815_thumb.gpost-18233-0-95406200-1389042811_thumb.gpost-18233-0-47880000-1389042825_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

plus on a bit of a naughty side I would like to see the heights stay to our north with the set up and have the finger of cold uppers seen here at 192hr on the ECM 12z pushing in above where the line is.

 

post-18233-0-07089300-1389043307_thumb.g

 

then maybe we can get something like this

 

post-18233-0-72507100-1389043318.gif

 

then we can pop our heads up at the border having a good giggle saying wheres your snow Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

I admire your staying power BUS.... you deserve USA type cold

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

cheers guys I just really enjoy the hunt and the chase.

 

little information to how the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTRE see the pattern playing out and they favour the ECM 0z ensemble mean due to its skill on the anomalies over the past 60 days

 

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 16 2014TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES PREDICT RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.  

 

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 20 2014 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. RIDGES ARE FORECAST JUST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS ASSESSED BY ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.  

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

It's a dry, blustery start to the day here with broken low clouds moving rather rapidly across the sky. The temperature had finally dropped below 8C before I left the house this morning, but only just. Even if we don't get snow, at least the temperatures after tomorrow are forecast start to drop to something a bit more 'normal' for the time of year.

 

Looking at the data for Dyce, it's striking that for the last 6 days the wind has been predominately from a southerly direction. In fact there's rarely been a period where it didn't include at least some southerly element. I suspect if I could see the data for further back that it wouldn't be too dissimilar for the end of Dec.

 

Oh, and as for reports on the BBC Website of the US cold snap, is it just me that gets annoyed at the insistence of quoting every single one of the low temperatures 'including windchill'? Sorry, but I'd rather know the actually air temperatures, with windchill as an optional extra. Getting almost 'Express'-like in their reporting.

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Newburgh(Aberdeenshire)
  • Location: Newburgh(Aberdeenshire)

All is ok people The "Polar Express" has rolled out another gem of a story. We shall all be blanketed by snow ans ice next week Posted Image and all shall rejoice at the winter wonderland..........Oh hang on its all rubbish as usual and Mr P from Vantage weather has got his name in the papers again.Posted Image

 

Worth a read if you need a laugh on day 2 back at work! Posted Image

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/452414/After-the-great-flood-comes-the-big-chill-with-sub-zero-temperatures-from-the-US

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

When I see the thread is still on page 48 I know the chase remains outwith the reliable....although if everybody did that does that mean no one would be looking at the models and we could all get hit with a big surprise :)

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Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)

Morning, just bounced into Gatwick, and the flooding is really bad, water everywhere you look, see fields where horses have a square foot in several acres of what is now a lake.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

What weather we have all been experiencing, i sincerely hope this is not a taste of any possible "global warming".

 

I have been encouraged this morning by some Sunshine and i have been out doing some garden tidying again and getting the washing out and the chickens all clean and tidy (yes one of them has had a bath too!) Coop and chickens lol.

 

So onto the models, Welllll hang in there folks we're still sitting waiting and wondering if once just once things may develop for some cold. ( i have bought my DH a frost shield for his windscreen in the hope that it breaks the non winter curse)Posted Image

 

Edit: how do i get rid of the warning posts thingy??

Edited by snowy owl
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

not really much clearer this morning only saving point in the UKMO 144hr that has came along a little to the ECM 12z yesterday even though the 0Z today was a little worse and also looks better aligned over the USA for the second ridge

 

post-18233-0-02698300-1389097594_thumb.g

 

BLACK ARROWS = ridging

 

RED ARROW = undercutting low

 

PURPLE ARROW = lows looking better to get  some WAA lined up further along

 

also heres a cracking pic showing a big bank of cloud rolling through texas yesterday as the cold polar front moved through

 

post-18233-0-02220000-1389097719_thumb.j

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