scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[Hiya]

Think a wee trip to Grangemouth is on the cards http://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/info/group-id/8133

 

I went over the the Clackmananshire bridge at 4.20, never seen it so high, all the way up to the verge of the road.

[Polarlow]

Just back from Riverside Dundee, Very High Tide, but no more flooding.

 

[Cheggers]

Bit depressing when you think this to be one of the better days of the festive period! Grey, dreich and cold, but good to not get blown around.

[Hairy Celt]

A dry, calm & partly sunny day up here with none of the drama of further south. The tides have been high but without coincident high winds, nothing untoward has happened...

 

Eeeurgh, back to the weekly grind soon. My hopes of using the holiday to go up some long-unvisited hills were thwarted by the weather but the winter still has time to come good.  Fingers crossed.

[Hiya]

I think the key was the word 'slack' - if we'd had even a modicum of surface cold ahead of the front it could easily have been a very snowy setup. As it is we were reliant on latent cooling from heavy precipitation to drag the freezing level down and that's a pretty difficult ask, especially since the front appears to have been a bit weaker than initially modelled and also because it's the middle of the day after a not all that cold night.

 

Exactly the reasons why it wasn't going to snow to low levels. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Exactly the reasons why it wasn't going to snow to low levels. 

 

It always looked pretty transient in fairness but on yesterday's NMM it hung around the central belt past sunset which pushed temperatures down a bit. I was a wee bit perplexed that the MO did make as much of a deal out of this one as they did, considering we've had a few similar ones where low ground snow was possible but not exactly likely, but they must've seen something in their modelling, possibly based around that NAE 6Z chart which showed a rapid localised decrease in the freezing level associated with the precipitation.

Evidently, that didn't come off so all we had was a bit of sleet to higher levels:

 

Would've been helpful to see the Euro4 modelling for the precipitation but sadly this doesn't appear to be available anymore for some reason, and instead all it shows is the surface pressure:

 

Gales return briefly tomorrow up the Irish Sea into the Firth of Clyde and across the Minch:

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM 12z hasn't backtracked any with how it handles the heights to our north at 144hr after taking a slight backtrack this mornings 0z but that is one we will have to watch and something I would like to see disappear as personally I don't like it but the ECM 12z did go on to give a little excitement going forward with ridging towards Greenland at the end.

 

 

I would prefer to see those heights to our north not sink if this is the route we go down as it would allow us to tap into the colder air quicker but we will see what we are being dealt in the coming days.

 

the ridge I have pointed out heading to Greenland would tie in well with what the ECM 0z mean chart at 240hr and other mean anomalies charts from not only ECM but also NCEP have been pointing towards. 

 

 

now notice on the anomalies chart that there is low heights over Europe and it doesn't agree in this area with the op so I am hoping this is a falsehood from the op and it is struggling to get the first ridge correct like it did over the last week with the Alaskan ridge as we could do without all the mess over Europe and take a straight shot at Greenland as this would knock us straight into the cold.

 

12z anomalies charts will show more later so will see how they fair in a while.

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM 12z hasn't backtracked any with how it handles the heights to our north at 144hr after taking a slight backtrack this mornings 0z but that is one we will have to watch and something I would like to see disappear as personally I don't like it but the ECM 12z did go on to give a little excitement going forward with ridging towards Greenland at the end.

 

ECH1-240.gif

 

I would prefer to see those heights to our north not sink if this is the route we go down as it would allow us to tap into the colder air quicker but we will see what we are being dealt in the coming days.

 

the ridge I have pointed out heading to Greenland would tie in well with what the ECM 0z mean chart at 240hr and other mean anomalies charts from not only ECM but also NCEP have been pointing towards. 

 

EDH101-240.gif

 

now notice on the anomalies chart that there is low heights over Europe and it doesn't agree in this area with the op so I am hoping this is a falsehood from the op and it is struggling to get the first ridge correct like it did over the last week with the Alaskan ridge as we could do without all the mess over Europe and take a straight shot at Greenland as this would knock us straight into the cold.

 

12z anomalies charts will show more later so will see how they fair in a while.

 

The ECM op gives a more gradual progression to proper cold, with a cold continental high extending over us. I don't mind this evolution to be honest as it gives us a break from the endless stream of lows, would give some nighttime frosts and also dries the ground out, which is good for everyone. I feel a switch to a proper easterly in the next 10 days is still a bit of an outside bet, but that there are some decent initial signs after that to around the 20th-25th, when both the stratospheric warming (at the moment it looks to be minor although possibly still producing at least a temporary split) and perhaps the MJO alongside AAM become that bit more favourable. Until then, I think we could still see some short sharp snaps but the building blocks are there for later in the month at least, regardless of the exact evolution it takes us to get there.

[Buriedundersnow]

now if we look at the ECM 12z in another way and say it could be right and going against the anomalies charts then its not game over as we could work out and end up with some Scandinavian heights or another route I have spotted that has happened in many blocking scenarios.

 

RED ARROW = if the low pressure continues to move on a north east trajectory to move over us.

 

BLACK ARROW = if the low does move northeast we may see the ridge pull the high pressure out of Europe and into the Atlantic and to aid with the building of heights in Greenland and allow low heights to sink into Europe to replace it

 

 

just wanted to show this to show we have a couple of routes into the cold through Greenland even if either one of the op or anomalies charts are right.

 

so options are still open either way

Edited January 4, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

The ECM op gives a more gradual progression to proper cold, with a cold continental high extending over us. I don't mind this evolution to be honest as it gives us a break from the endless stream of lows, would give some nighttime frosts and also dries the ground out, which is good for everyone. I feel a switch to a proper easterly in the next 10 days is still a bit of an outside bet, but that there are some decent initial signs after that to around the 20th-25th, when both the stratospheric warming (at the moment it looks to be minor although possibly still producing at least a temporary split) and perhaps the MJO alongside AAM become that bit more favourable. Until then, I think we could still see some short sharp snaps but the building blocks are there for later in the month at least, regardless of the exact evolution it takes us to get there.

 

yeah I think we will defo see cold and there plenty of routes still out there i have to be single minded in a way as i am still chasing the pattern i first spotted hoping it can come off (only time will tell with that) but i do see the other routes open and like you say the ECM does show a more gradual route but i am getting sick of waiting for snow and really hope we see it at the earliest point possible although rarely does that come off.

 

in another few days i will know if my pattern will work out but if not like you said we look to be on our way to something in the end.

[Buriedundersnow]

i saw this on twitter last night late on and thought it was pretty cool that you can see old tornado scars in the snow over in America i didn't think they would show up like that

 

[snow1975]

The ECM 12z ends with a meridonal pattern across the Atlantic. Mild SSW flow over the UK with WAA, could do with a more S'ly flow up to Svaalbard to help inflate a Scandi high and drag in the deep cold pool from Europe. As it stands, looks like heading for Greece or SE England.

There must be a pattern change coming since the model runs are inconsistent eg. Thursdays zonal ECM vrs yesterday's reverse zonal 12Z vrs todays meridonal pattern.

Edited January 4, 2014 by snow1975

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM anomalies charts below the 0z 240hr on left and 12z 240hr on right.

 

still have the low heights over Europe the heights to our north a little different orientated and the heights on the USA east coast have moved closer to Greenland

 

 

its a hard one to read we can prob say we defo have the ridge moving towards Greenland but with the anomalies being a bit toned down over Europe there might be some discrepancies there but with the anomalies staying in relatively stable would say the overriding but maybe not by much would be away from the op.

[Hairy Celt]

If we all blow westwards hard enough might the Atlantic depressions get the message and just do a fast one out the front door?

 

Nah, thought not...

[Buriedundersnow]

heres one for you LS and i hope it makes sense.

 

we start with the MJO phasings and we see the GFS and UKMO below have changed there forecasts to stay relatively together again.

 

 

but yet again the ECM is going down a different path on is own and personally i think it could be wrong.

 

 

hopefully the ECM is wrong because if we are looking good to go into a phase 8 from the charts we are seeing it ties in pretty well with the model output although our heights are a bit further to the north than on the composite shown below for phase 8.

 

 

now if we assume that the GFS and UKMO are right with phase 7 next and with the ECM throwing in the ridge headed for Greenland i think it may be wrong and fighting against its MJO forecast then if we move on to phase 7 and take into account phase 8 was already a bit further north with the heights so we could maybe be looking at phase 7 moving further north.

 

then does that not look bang on with the Greenland ridge and heights joining with the Scandinavian ridge already there

 

 

so maybe ECM might be wrong and having a little hissy fit and i hope so because that phase 7 MJO composite look well good.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[LomondSnowstorm]

heres one for you LS and i hope it makes sense.

 

we start with the MJO phasings and we see the GFS and UKMO below have changed there forecasts to say relatively together the same again.

 

GFSO_phase_small.gifNCPE_phase_21m_small.gifUKME_phase_23m_small.gif

 

but yet again the ECM is going down a different path on is own and personally i think it could be wrong.

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gifECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

hopefully the ECM is wrong because if we are looking good to go into a phase 8 from the charts we are seeing it ties in pretty well with the model output although our heights are a bit further to the north than on the composite shown below for phase 8.

 

JanuaryPhase8500mb.gif

 

now if we assume that the GFS and UKMO are right with phase 7 next and with the ECM throwing in the ridge headed for Greenland i think it may be wrong and fighting against its MJO forecast then if we move on to phase 7 and take into account phase 8 was already a bit further north with the heights so we could maybe be looking at phase 7 moving further north.

 

then does that not look bang on with the Greenland ridge and heights joining with the Scandinavian ridge already there

 

JanuaryPhase7500mb.gif

 

so maybe ECM might be wrong and having a little hissy fit and i hope so because that phase 7 MJO composite look well good.

 

Cheers for those, they hadn't updated since the 1st so we were waiting with baited breath for them. Looks like they've all largely stuck to their guns, with the ECM wanting to kill the convection in the Western Pacific but with the UKMO and GFS wanting to ramp it up. Unfortunately the ECM has the best skill in forecasting the MJO but all of these forecasts are a bit temperamental to say the least so it's rather up for grabs at the moment. A few of the models want to move the MJO backwards into phase 6 or even phase 4, which is quite amusing, and the BOM is displaying almost 0 skill whatsoever:

We might as well use TEITS' 'easterly seagull' method from a few years back

[Buriedundersnow]

Cheers for those, they hadn't updated since the 1st so we were waiting with baited breath for them. Looks like they've all largely stuck to their guns, with the ECM wanting to kill the convection in the Western Pacific but with the UKMO and GFS wanting to ramp it up. Unfortunately the ECM has the best skill in forecasting the MJO but all of these forecasts are a bit temperamental to say the least so it's rather up for grabs at the moment. A few of the models want to move the MJO backwards into phase 6 or even phase 4, which is quite amusing, and the BOM is displaying almost 0 skill whatsoever:

We might as well use TEITS' 'easterly seagull' method from a few years back

 

 

i had heard the ECM had the best verification stats somewhere but how big a lead is it and are the verification stats similar to like they do with the models like .873 and all that.

 

this is one of the times i hope the ECM is wrong and the GFS and UKMO have it spot on as some big heights to our northwest would be good.

[Buriedundersnow]

heres another one and you will prob think I'm mad now

 

below is the ECM 12z 240hr chart i have dome a little paint and turned it round to line up with the MJO composite

 

if you look at the arrows and follow the evolution then the rest of the northern hemisphere could look like the MJO phase 7 and the only bit wrong would be us.

 

 

not to be taken seriously just something i noticed.

 

unless you go back to this post and we see that evolution with a trough dropping into Europe and its looks bang on for a phase 7.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78858-scotland-regional-discussion-231213/?p=2884933

 

maybe that's the pattern just cracked as it would work

Edited January 4, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

updated NCEP 500mb anomalies charts

 

6-10 day chart see's the atlantic being shut off

 

 

8-14 day chart shows the high on the USA eastern coast and Greenland highs moving closer together and winds for us switching round to an easterly direction

 

 

anomaly charts looking good even if the output isn't.

 

EDIT: small question on these charts that someone could maybe answer for me the two highs when the purple dashed lines join and go round both is that indicative of ridging?

Edited January 4, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[aggy]

Good chance of storms tomorrow folks

[BurntFishTrousers]

Earlier today @ Kincardine: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZlMbNRESlw

[BurntFishTrousers]

Is there some kind of chemical reaction between high levels of salt water and algae (not used to water cover) which makes this video appear pink? There is a pink hue apparent, and not just near sunset, yeah?

Edited January 5, 2014 by BurntFishTrousers

[Ravelin]

*Alert* *Alert*

Yep, we actually have a frost here this morning, a fairly rare event thus winter so far. Current temp of -2.3/ll.lC (for those that missed the earlier discussion, the Lidl weather station doesn't show -ve dew points) and the overnight low was -2.9C. Along with that we have no wind and blue skies so a nice looking morning for a change. Won't last though will it?

[mardatha]

Pure white here too and sunshine, but a bank of heavy cloud coming up from the south.

[Cheggers]

I can see the Ochils for the first time in weeks. Cold and calm here but no frost.