scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[SW Saltire]

Morning all, horrendous morning here. Very strong winds and heavy rain. Local river due to flood in an hour and tidal surge expected around 2pm. Let's hope a cold February and March can stop this winter being remembered as a rampagingly zonal winter with many people being flooded out of their homes...

Edited January 3, 2014 by SW Saltire

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Tidal surge on the Clyde.. Not bad

[skyeblue]

Fancy going to Ayr

[edo]

i would say the wind and rain is worse here today than from any of the December storms...... and I see windy wilson calling this Sunday a superstorm?? Not had a chance to look at anything as at work but is Sunday looking particularly bad or just more of the same?

[aggy]

Just be down beach now heading to prestwick safe distance clearly

[skyeblue]

Just be down beach now heading to prestwick safe distance clearly

you might find a train sitting on the runway

[BlizzardConditions]

There is also a Met Office weather warning out for snow tomorrow: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1388793600

 

That seemed to come out of nowhere! Great deal of uncertainty around it though.

[NUT]

Thankfully it's stopped raining (at least for a bit)

[blitzen]

Hardly inspiring is it?  Rain lashing down here and quite breezy. I can't seem to get a handle on the outlook for us a bit down the line. Models, to my eye, do show some interest in FI but reading the model thread, and some posts from the more informed, there doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm for the colder outlook verifying? As ever, more runs needed and hopefully the colder outlook will start materialising within the reliable.

[Polar Maritime]

This probably want come as a surprise..

 

Retweeted Met Office (@metoffice):

For Scotland, December 2013 was the wettest month ever since national records began in 1910.

[Blizzardo]

Tomorrows snow prospects for parts of Southern and Central Scotland really are finely balanced. Air temperature will be around 2-3c as the precipitation moves in, the thicknesses are ok but upper air is probably the wrong side of marginal for low ground at around -2c. The precipitation looks reasonably heavy which will help.

 

There could be some surprises for some with rain turning to sleet and then wet snow and maybe a covering if you have a little bit of height. Overall, definately worth a watch.

[mistyqueen]

Just had a wee five minute power cut there. A*se.

 

Just checked by health lottery numbers....nae chance! A*se again.

[Zenarcher]

Was a bit windy through the night but it picked up in the morning here got a top gust of 57mph. Some local flooding around the coastal parts.

 

Also here's the sat image taken today of the storm,

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Bit of snow potential tomorrow courtesy of a subsidiary low and consequent wrap around occlusion:

 

Looks to be very localised though to central eastern Scotland (at least as far as low ground potential is concerned) with 950s seemingly reflecting some major latent cooling associated with heavy precipitation combined with a slack flow:

Some reasonably heavy precipitation, so around 2-4 inches for high ground, less so for lower ground as it appears to be almost entirely intensity dependent so may well start off as rain:

 

The GLOSEA4 model is playing up which means we can't get its take on it, other than that the thicknesses at both 850 and 500 level are both too high where the occulsion is, only falling behind the front when things should start to clear northeastwards:

Still time for changes to the northern extent of the heavy precipitation (which was previously just up to the Forth) and it should be noted that the NMM shows it as rain initially before turning to snow for low ground on its back edge by tomorrow night.

I haven't really looked at the models in much depth this year so far due to being laid low with this dreaded throaty cold/flu/manflu thing that I've had since Christmas (and in fairness which wasn't exactly helped by the Hogmanay festivities) but I'll endeavour to do a summary post after the 12Zs come out.

 

[edo]

Tomorrows snow prospects for parts of Southern and Central Scotland really are finely balanced. Air temperature will be around 2-3c as the precipitation moves in, the thicknesses are ok but upper air is probably the wrong side of marginal for low ground at around -2c. The precipitation looks reasonably heavy which will help.

 

There could be some surprises for some with rain turning to sleet and then wet snow and maybe a covering if you have a little bit of height. Overall, definately worth a watch.

 

this outlines the uncertainty, a bit more detail from met office

 

• Persistent rain, which will be heavy at times is pushing into the very west of Scotland at the moment. This is expected to spread to most parts by mid-morning (apart from perhaps the far northeast). Rain amounts are roughly as expected yesterday, with 30-40mm (isolated totals of perhaps 50-60mm) possible over the high ground of Argyll/Stirlingshire/Perthshire and W Grampian too. 20mm expected widely elsewhere. Please see the latest Flood Guidance Statement for a more details of impacts associated with this.
• We have already seen winds gusting to around 60mph over western areas, and this will continue through the morning, perhaps reaching around 70mph at the most exposed locations. Inland in western areas, gust speeds are more generally expected to be around 50mph.
• The wind speeds are not exceptional, but combined with a surge and a high astronomical tide, there is the potential for coastal flooding impacts. There was an afternoon update to the Flood Guidance Statement yesterday, and the Solway Firth, Firth of Clyde and the Oban area are now considered to be at medium risk of flooding (i.e. Amber).
• Winds have the potential to continue to disrupt ferry traffic in the west into this afternoon, and will ease through the evening and overnight.
• The persistent rain should ease through the late afternoon and evening, becoming confined to areas north of the central belt, though showers will follow into the evening, potentially wintery over high ground.

Tomorrow is a much quieter and brighter day for most, though there is currently some uncertainty over an area of precipitation moving northwards into the Borders and eastern D&G in the afternoon. There is a risk that this precipitation may fall as snow over higher ground, uncertainties at the moment surround the height at which this will turn to rain (i.e. whether it will be disruptive) and also the northwards extent of the precipitation. Forecasters are currently assessing the need for a Yellow Warning, a decision will be made later this morning.

[DR(S)NO]

Just went for a wee walk along Helensburgh front.......certainly blew the cobwebs away.I see the film crews are out for footage for the news .

Police stopping traffic both sides of the front road due to serious flooding.Pier has disappeared under the water and waves crashing onto the main road .Main car park completed flooded and bad news for the folk that thought it would be a good place to park with such serious weather forecast....DOH.

[Soaring Hawk]

Just be down beach now heading to prestwick safe distance clearly

That's where I would be if still living in East Ayrshire - my favourite place when its stormy. 

 

Poor Laura Bicker on BBC news doing a stirling job of staying upright on the sea front at Ardrossan - and at some risk of being hit by the waves and sucked out into the boiling sea behind her.  Very dramatic at high tide 30 minutes ago. 

 

Mind you, down here in soft southern parts, it keeps getting almost totally dark with my local roads flooded, thunder, hail, some sleet and monsoon sideways rain.  I almost feel like I'm back in Ayrshire!

 

Take care all and send me a postcard from Norway after Sunday's incoming hits you.

[JoeShmoe]

Dont know who else is an NFL fan but for the Packers - 49ers playoff game in Minneapolis this weekend the MAX temperature is -22c with wind chill of -35 to -50c

 

 

http://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=2e5d4f4e94b7ccc3&hl=en&gl=GB&source=web

 

Should be an interesting game to watch, suggesting it could be the coldest NFL game in history, even colder than the ice bowl

Edited January 3, 2014 by JoeShmoe

[Buriedundersnow]

i would say the wind and rain is worse here today than from any of the December storms...... and I see windy wilson calling this Sunday a superstorm?? Not had a chance to look at anything as at work but is Sunday looking particularly bad or just more of the same?

 

my mum keeps saying things to me about him I think she follows him on the net to find out about weather.

[Buriedundersnow]

looking at this mornings 0z runs we cant look past 144hr as this is where they differ in opinion below I have circled the area where the main difference for us is with the heights to our north where the ECM and UKMO have a slightly more robust block where as the GFS has this area totally different and this is the furthest we can go just now with the op runs till we see how this is resolved and unfortunately the 6z GFS didn't do any better here but we will see how the 12z's go with it

 

 

since we have ECM and UKMO against GFS we will call it 2 against 1 so might be the preferred option and if it is we see some promise toward the end of the ECM mean 500 anomaly chart which I have done below

 

GREEN ARROW = the low heights being transferred across America toward the west coast and taking the vortex further from Greenland

 

PURPLE ARROW = where the vortex has left and leaving a calmer picture with heights building through the area

 

YELLOW ARROW = showing a weakening of heights across Europe

 

 

just a few good signs from the anomalies chart should this be the road we go down

Edited January 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[edo]

my mum keeps saying things to me about him I think she follows him on the net to find out about weather.

we have debated him on here before... he provides a service for sure but he certainly likes the "celebrity aspect" and he knows hee haw about weather just reports others forecasts but to be fair he does not pretend to be a metreologist and he gets people involved with the weather so im all for that.... I know hee haw aswell but many of you on here are exceptional and its a shame to think that if people are interested in the weather they go there instead of here but probably as well they do as would become a trollfest.

[Colsuth]

December 2013:

 

Max: 15.1 C 13th Dec

Min: -1.4 C 7th Dec

 

rain 127.8 mm

highest wind gust  24m/h

 

NB weather station almost blown away on 5th Dec so don't have figures for that day but Kinloss had 83mph gusts. dont think the wind speed is going to be very accurate (too sheltered) and not too sure about rainfall as it didn't seem a wet month.

[Ravelin]

Its been a mixed day here so far. Current temp is 6.9/2.9C with a mere 5.5mm of rain since midnight, most of that during the night. Wind isnt too bad at 10km/h and gusting just over twice that. Current pressure is 964mb, which is the lowest for a while.

 

Can't be bothered looking at the models, at least until I detect a bit more excitement about the prospects. It seems from what I've read here that there is some potential and hopefully that will become more than just potential. Are we actually getting any closer though, or is the potential constantly 2 weeks away? 

[Buriedundersnow]

we have debated him on here before... he provides a service for sure but he certainly likes the "celebrity aspect" and he knows hee haw about weather just reports others forecasts but to be fair he does not pretend to be a metreologist and he gets people involved with the weather so im all for that.... I know hee haw aswell but many of you on here are exceptional and its a shame to think that if people are interested in the weather they go there instead of here but probably as well they do as would become a trollfest.

 

 

my mum has talked about him mentioning seeing what is being said on the forums so he might look in on here we never know.

 

 

I want to give a little tip to anyone looking in the MOD and seeing all the talk of doom and gloom it may very well be down there but not so much for us here as we could have some snow chances coming maybe even for next weekend and also don't look at the ensembles just now as they just don't relate to us here at all as the ensembles are for London or Holland and are being skewed by the heights over Europe seen below

 

 

 

more so when you see a chart like this posted and people saying south west dominated wind pattern well again of couse it will be down there due to the heights over Europe

 

 

we have chances of much colder air coming in from Canada on the northern end so we do have possibilities of snow in the near future

[Polar Gael]

"Hi, is that Noah? Just wondering if you'd ever considered setting up a Scottish franchise?"

 

 

 

Dreich in Crieff: properly tipping it down, 5.1ºC & dark. Wind is getting up again, too.

 

Lochans forming in the back garden...

 

It's time for the snowdancing to start - & hopefully end this utter p*sh!