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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: Windygates
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, sun in summer!
  • Location: Windygates

Back roads around here were pretty bad. Was torrential in the early afternoon.

 

 

 

TIP: Don't drive through unless you know for sure the base of the car will have at least an inch of clearance. Cars float - at least initially so... Drive slowly - going fast doesn't help unless it's a narrow stretch of water and you're in a real hurry. Go fast and the force of water can tear off the sump guard, wheel arch internal covers etc; they were never meant to take that. Also make sure your engine air intake is well clear; on some cars it can be quite low.

 

Leon has ridden narrow 2 ft drifts on winters. 1.5 ft of flood is another matter...

Especially if you drive an Alfa Romeo, Rover/MG or Vectra Diesel- these are the most common cars I pull out of floods. Not that we get much flooding in Fife.. I'm off today and tomorrow so not my problem!

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

was in the MOD and saw this posted so thought I would post it in here as this is what I have been talking about and was looking for to be the eventual outcome in the pattern I have been looking at with the first ridge putting some heights to our north then later on a push of heights from the Atlantic to reinforce the block

 

post-18233-0-59817600-1388441457_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

was in the MOD and saw this posted so thought I would post it in here as this is what I have been talking about and was looking for to be the eventual outcome in the pattern I have been looking at with the first ridge putting some heights to our north then later on a push of heights from the Atlantic to reinforce the block

 

Posted Imagepost-6981-0-91844300-1388437758.png

As long as the high gets no closer to us than that? 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

As long as the high gets no closer to us than that? 

 

 

yeah would be good a little further north if something like that does manage to come off.

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Did we have 24/7 Breaking News today about all the flooding? I seem to recall we had that recently at a flooding event further south a few days ago.....Posted Image

 

Scottish flooding was about 10 mins in on the Radio 4 six o'clock news and got 2 very short sentences.  Perhaps they couldn't find anyone with a sufficiently flooded ego to be worth interviewing.

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Posted
  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

Lifted this from the bbc website.  Cars floating in flooded streets is only "poor" weather, hardly newsworthy.post-2658-0-50862000-1388445073_thumb.pn

Edited by Hiya
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

yeah would be good a little further north if something like that does manage to come off.

 

I think that's almost perfect to be honest, slightly depends on the upper cold pool I guess but our mean heights in winter are so low that even a little bit above average is still pretty low in an easterly type setup.

This is December 1st 2010 in the same format for example:

post-9298-0-22445000-1388446472_thumb.gi

And the actual:

Posted Image

It's not quite as good as the above on second glance at the air pressure charts but it'd still be quite a decent wee easterly even at that. Even slightly lower heights with a similarly weak central pressured high (i.e. everything shifted a bit north) would give potential for shortwave activity developing with slack pressure and a good convective setup if the flow is stronger.

Anyway, all speculative yet, would be good just to get to a stage where we can discuss charts like that as a realistic possibility again.

 

Also, as Chiono pointed out on the MT we don't have the geopotential 10hpa charts (I'm sure they're out there somewhere though, if you're on Lorenzo link me up to them as it would be enlightening for the 18Z) but this looks pretty close to a full on split SSW for the 15th:

Posted Image

edit: no need, appears to be pretty comprehensively covered on the strat thread as ever (also stupidly forgot that SSW is defined by reverse of winds at 30hpa rather than 10hpaPosted Image )

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

the ECM 12z was on the warmer side of the ensembles and was one of the latest with the ridge all probably due to downstream the lack or ridging in Alaska if it had ridged earlier it probably would have placed the heights in a more favourable position to trap more of the trough underneath it as it looks ready to sink on the op.

 

post-18233-0-36394300-1388447808_thumb.gpost-18233-0-45309700-1388447806_thumb.g

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Was just looking through the 18z re YET ANOTHER Atlantic Storm fleeing in, so many variances on positioning of these lows that I think even the pub run can't cope !

post-7292-0-97402000-1388447739_thumb.pn

 

Heights and Temps for GFS are on Instantweather maps

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013123018&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360

 

post-7292-0-78751000-1388448133_thumb.gipost-7292-0-50051200-1388448134_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Just out of interest, a wee comparison between the 'textbook' pre and post SSW tropospheric height pattern and the current predicted 8-14 day pattern:

post-9298-0-84073400-1388448105_thumb.pn

Posted Image

and the +168 ECM ens to give a clearer picture of the Eastern Hemisphere:

Posted Image

 

Key features (shown by the dotted marks) on the split SSW (if it goes full blown SSW it will be a split rather than a displacement) precursors are the Kamchatka Ridge, Aleutian high and eastern US trough, and to a lesser extent the UK trough. Roll the idealised model onto 0-30 days and then 30-60 days and you can see why this is such an exciting development and also why charts like the ECM control are likely to become more and more commonplace in FI in the coming weeks. Exciting times...

Cheers to both of you for the link by the way

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

what do you think chances are for an immediate response cos I'm sure I read in the strat thread no long ago someone saying we seem to be seeing quick responses maybe they were wrong though.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Initial response still some time away, should 30mb split occur. As chiono wrote earlier improved chances of easterly setting up some 7 days later, then lagged effect of cold filtering down.

This of course depends on down welling. SSWs Not easy to predict, after effects even more so.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Initial response still some time away, should 30mb split occur. As chiono wrote earlier improved chances of easterly setting up some 7 days later, then lagged effect of cold filtering down.

This of course depends on down welling. SSWs Not easy to predict, after effects even more so.

 

Yep, although I suppose the 'spinning plates' analogy does lend itself to the idea that the colder the strat the more spectacular the fall. It could be a 2012 like event where we didn't exactly see the best tropospheric reaction or it could be like a 2009 where there was a strong initial reaction but with a slightly disappointing longer term downwelling, or it could be like last winter where hemispherically at least it was a really very prolonged and spectacular reaction which set us up for an exceptionally cold March - it's too early to give more than an educated guess on that front IMO, but I rather like my at the time massive longshot 25th January beasterly prediction at this stagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

another small question and sorry if its getting tedious this should be the last one.

 

is what we are seeing is it a proper warming or is it renewed wave activity that is showing at day ten in the ECM strat charts as in the explanation of wave 2 is warming on two sides of the vortex is it not like in the GFS 30hpa chart

 

post-18233-0-51854000-1388451228_thumb.ppost-18233-0-29887900-1388451241_thumb.g

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

A pretty wet day here until the afternoon. I had a nice drive around Aberfoyle and Loch Achray in the beautiful Trossachs - some spectacular pale pink tone in the sky, water and land as the front cleared, a nice mix of pale pink and grey/purple cloud aswell as a watery blue coming through the thin cloud. With all the rain recently Loch Achray was reaching right up to the edge of the road. 

 

This has been one of those unsettled, atlantic driven Decembers with any seasonal weather being short-lived. The difference with this year is that it was overall much milder than your typical zonal December. A really mild spell after a coolish start was responsible. Other than that it hasn't been overly mild but the changeable nature of our weather this month has meant that frosts have been hard to come by and warm sectors in low pressure systems results in milder daily maxima. Despite how mild the month has been I've still be able to see snow on at least 5 days which is sort of respectable. This month could have had less in the way of relentless and constant low pressure, fronts, rain and wind and with a little more in the way of some frosty, cooler and settled interludes and to see a bit more of that low December sunshine or clear sky at day and night.

 

For New Year's Eve and Day I'll be away in Fife but in the New Year I'm hoping to start and complete a review of the Scottish weather during 2013. 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Not long in after walking back from a party, hick, and its a riot of stars up in the sky. Correspondingly the temperature is hovering just above freezing but the paths and roads are already getting slippy. No doubt it'll be mild and wet again by the time I wake up.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Morning all! Still dark and dry here, breezy though and the alarm is flashing on one of my weather stations. Glad I don't live in the South West of Scotland though....those poor peeps flooded out of their homes. It was apparently a lovely starry night last night and a bit on the cold side but temps are now well up at 6.3 this morning. Hope the weather isn't too bad where you all are if you are going out partying later Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

As predicted, 5.7C and no sign of any frost this morning. dry and very little wind though.

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Posted
  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

 

Just for a minute there I thought Dundee had slid into the Tay...

 

I passed the fire engines and 3 police cars outside those flats on my way to the cinema last night, was wondering what it was all about.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

Morning all,

 

Breezy here in Crail with a ESEly, temp +5.4c.

 

Monthly figures almost finalised and Leuchars is coming in with a mean temp of 6c (+2.3c above average). Only one air frost recorded this month. Apart from the week around the 9th-15th where max temps were above 10c every day it wasn't outrageously mild for the rest of the month in terms of daily highs.

 

December 1988 had a mean temp of 7.1c by way of comparison.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Well its dry here if rather breezy this morning.

 

Went into the MT, not a good idea or you may need some prozac lol.

 

I think we all need to do a snow dance this Hogmanay, it may just do the trick :)

 

Best wishes to you all for 2014, will try and pop back in later on :))

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