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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Bugger...At one stage on the 12z I thought we were heading for a 3 ridge link up until it all went pear shaped. Still, after seeing that SW forecast, who cares!!Posted Image

 

its definitely taking steps back towards the ECM up till 192hr the GFS did the same with the last ridging first it pointed it out then dropped it and spent the rest of the time catching up to the ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland

Ugh :( rain, rain, rain oh and wait for it more rain, I just want some SNOOOOOOW

Maybe we should start up the sacrificing again? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Peebles, Scottish Borders, 168m asl
  • Location: Peebles, Scottish Borders, 168m asl

Utterly dismal here, it's never stopped all day and the Tweed river has now burst it's banks and it's not due to peak until 9pm. Fed. Up. Of. Rain. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

Hey folks,

 

Im trying to get to grips with a few bitties here but i looked at the models for what looks like a real howler for down south,  so if i said it looks wild at +168 on the GEFS have i got this right?  the site thats in french i think??  and am i right it looks wild?  

 

Been nice up here today   (real technical i know)   but i know the highland ducks are are vacating south at the moPosted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Hey folks,

 

Im trying to get to grips with a few bitties here but i looked at the models for what looks like a real howler for down south,  so if i said it looks wild at +168 on the GEFS have i got this right?  the site thats in french i think??  and am i right it looks wild?  

 

Been nice up here today   (real technical i know)   but i know the highland ducks are are vacating south at the moPosted Image 

 

GEFS is the ensembles and GFS is the main model so if its the main model run then yeah you would be right it looks wild at +168 but would be GFS as others might think you mean the ensembles if you say GEFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Hey folks,

 

Im trying to get to grips with a few bitties here but i looked at the models for what looks like a real howler for down south,  so if i said it looks wild at +168 on the GEFS have i got this right?  the site thats in french i think??  and am i right it looks wild?  

 

Been nice up here today   (real technical i know)   but i know the highland ducks are are vacating south at the moPosted Image 

 

This is the GFS 168 hours chart

 

post-6686-0-49564800-1388425943_thumb.pn

 

As you say it does look wild that's correct Ireland would be the worst hit and Scotland at risk of 55 to 65mph gusts. Still a week away and most of the models are unsure how this low will track into the Atlantic. Usually the case is the models take a few days to work out the path. It then takes a few days before its about to arrive on how deep it will actually get.

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: Campsie
  • Location: Campsie

42mm of rain for me since last night with more on the way. Most fields are waterlogged and the road conditions are quite tricky in places. Not looking great for the next few days. I have a feeling this winter may become memorable for some pretty serious flooding - not what I was hoping for.

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Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)

Ugh Posted Image rain, rain, rain oh and wait for it more rain, I just want some SNOOOOOOW

Maybe we should start up the sacrificing again? Posted Image

I think looking at the latest model runs, BFT has been oot with intent. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

GEFS is the ensembles and GFS is the main model so if its the main model run then yeah you would be right it looks wild at +168 but would be GFS as others might think you mean the ensembles if you say GEFS.

Ensembles??  ie statistics?

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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

This is the GFS 168 hours chart

 

Posted Imagegfs-0-168.png

 

As you say it does look wild that's correct Ireland would be the worst hit and Scotland at risk of 55 to 65mph gusts. Still a week away and most of the models are unsure how this low will track into the Atlantic. Usually the case is the models take a few days to work out the path. It then takes a few days before its about to arrive on how deep it will actually get.

Thankyou very very much to both of you  Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Ensembles??  ie statistics?

 

each model has its main run then it has several different runs between 20 up to I think maybe 50 on some models which run with slightly different inputs than the main model then when you see ensembles charts like below you see all the runs and also the mean line which in this case is the yellow line and they take the mean from all different parameters temps, pressure, rainfall etc to give an idea of what we may see instead of just taking what one model run says

 

post-18233-0-88066800-1388426651_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

Why does the darn dog always need walk when i spend a mo on here........on the lookout for a treadmill, pm with details!!!Posted Image    speak lata folks

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Posted
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)

The White Cart in Linn Park was flowing as fast as I have ever seen it this afternoon. We were staying well back from the edge of the river when I took this photo.

 

post-11598-0-74198900-1388427449_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Learner area is packed with information - http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/5-the-netweather-guides/

 

From there this link on Ensemble forecasting -

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ClkAme7CLzViv51_1r8KQINHoendcxYbHJh2Ya2zQzI/edit?hl=en&pli=1

 

RE: Meteociel - couple of images may help.

 

When you select GEFS - Global Ensemble Forecasting System, the 'control' run opens, from here and highlighted you can see the mean and also spread charts.

post-7292-0-54311000-1388427378_thumb.pn

 

If you click panel, this opens up all the different variances created by each of the 'perturbations' or ensemble members.

post-7292-0-36308000-1388427395_thumb.pn

 

If you click diagramme you can see the ensembles plotted as a graph, click Carte Europe presents a map on whcih you can click to bring up the ensembles for that location. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

post-7292-0-42141500-1388427646_thumb.gi

 

Where the operational run deviates from the cluster of ensembles this can be considered an 'outlier' solution, you read this a lot specifically where a model produces a very warm run or a very cold run.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

anyone know what this is.

 

CLUE: its out of this world

 

post-18233-0-13351800-1388428325_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Storm on jupiter bus?

 

not far off its the polar vortex on Saturn I spotted it on twitter and thought it looked quite cool makes a change to see a vortex when it isn't just colours and lines.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

not far off its the polar vortex on Saturn I spotted it on twitter and thought it looked quite cool makes a change to see a vortex when it isn't just colours and lines.

 

Find a wider range image BUS - it's hexagonal...!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

Thats cool alright,     Today i was costing up the weather balloon with gps and camera etc to try get some real nice pic's up in the stratosphere...gets to 90-125,000ft...problem is where it lands as its quite common up here to lose signal very easy so finding the payload could be difficult, working on it though..

 

Lorenzo i appreciate the post and will be putting my head in the learners section,  Enjoy the crack here!   It would be easy to carry on posting stats of the week or of the day but i want my teeth into forecasting..the GFS was what i used before i came on here, i only really understood pressure and isobars really on it...nice to know i was looking at a model you guys use though... 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Like everywhere else its been rain, rain and more rain here today. At least my rain gauge is getting some action,its recorded 14.2mm of rain so far today, so not as much as some. Temp is currently 5.8C but car was showing 4C when I was out earlier. Nothing even remotely slush like though, probably cos the dew point ain't much lower than the temperature. Virtually no wind all day.

 

Hopefully the ski centres are getting plastered with snow, which would at least be some consolation while we wait for more widespread cold and snow.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Find a wider range image BUS - it's hexagonal...!!

 

hexagonal

 

post-18233-0-52011400-1388430783.jpg

 

other images

 

post-18233-0-01976800-1388430765.jpgpost-18233-0-12492300-1388430764.jpgpost-18233-0-43435400-1388430764.jpgpost-18233-0-85739800-1388430783_thumb.jpost-18233-0-83148000-1388430782.jpgpost-18233-0-53596900-1388430784.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

Did we have 24/7 Breaking News today about all the flooding? I seem to recall we had that recently at a flooding event further south a few days ago.....Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM 12z went wrong quite early tonight so will wait for ensembles to see where it stands but think it might be wrong as early as 120hr.

 

below is yesterdays 12z at 144hr and this mornings 144hr and todays 12z 120hr if you notice both yesterdays and this mornings both have ridging through Alaska and they look a good match for the pattern moved 12hrs on then todays 12z and there is no ridging which greatly affects things

 

post-18233-0-07178300-1388435452_thumb.gpost-18233-0-43826200-1388435513_thumb.gpost-18233-0-06378300-1388435573_thumb.g

 

if we move on to yesterdays 12z 168hr and this mornings 0z 168hr and todays 12z 144hr then you can see again yesterdays 12z and todays 0z look ok for a 12hr progression then todays 12z doesn't look quite right then the run goes a little wrong from here on in

 

post-18233-0-71679400-1388435453_thumb.gpost-18233-0-68506300-1388435515_thumb.gpost-18233-0-01724400-1388435574_thumb.g

 

maybe a hiccup maybe not or maybe some Shannon entropy kicking in that we will just have to wait and see

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

Back roads around here were pretty bad. Was torrential in the early afternoon.

 

Had to turn around at one point on the way to Gala; could probably have gone through but silly risking a flooded engine bay.

 

Few idiots were attempting it; hope they knew where their air intake was.

 

TIP: Don't drive through unless you know for sure the base of the car will have at least an inch of clearance. Cars float - at least initially so... Drive slowly - going fast doesn't help unless it's a narrow stretch of water and you're in a real hurry. Go fast and the force of water can tear off the sump guard, wheel arch internal covers etc; they were never meant to take that. Also make sure your engine air intake is well clear; on some cars it can be quite low.

 

Leon has ridden narrow 2 ft drifts on winters. 1.5 ft of flood is another matter...

Edited by scottish skier
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