scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[LomondSnowstorm]

Afternoon folk's  

Enjoyed that post LS,  I have a question though and its regarding the run of sub 4.5 december's.

Forgive me please if this is a naive question and if it is in the wrong forum ( no brave enough to go in   ) but I wondered if anyone can shed a wee bit of light?

 

So with the sea warming this will effect how the gulf stream and drift operate,  and it turn this dictates our weather over the british isles. I read somewhere a while ago  the shift on the gulf due to global warming would see our average temps plummet...especially for Scotland  ( LS said we had run of below average temps).... so in effect scotland will be experiencing climate change while the rest of the world experiences global warming.    

 

so to sum it up is there a chance we are on path for more of the white stuff? or did i dream this all up?

 

if its a daft question or i dont make sense its from my alarm clock going off way too early the last few day's,  i cant switch it off either as its 6ft tall and lives next door with a load of concrete to cut.  Mind you my missius is going to take the batteries out before long

 

There's certainly something in this, and while our local climate is affected by an absolute smorgasbord of different factors often acting in different directions, there are studies which show that (as others have said) low Arctic sea ice extent, by increasing heights to our north and displacing cold air into the mid latitudes:

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/11595

In the longer term of course the idea of the North Atlantic Drift slowing, and perhaps even stopping, via melting Greenland ice is an interesting one - certainly the Atlantic SST tripole, which correlates with a negative NAO and was a key factor in the cold of December 2010 according to the Met Office, suggests that colder temperatures in the mid Atlantic do lead to more blocked winters:

 

On the other hand, one would expect that a weakened jetstream in general would lead to increased summer blocking as well, which certainly hasn't been the case in recent summers other than the last one. This is partly due to the fact that the jet has generally been tracking further south in recent years, which has meant that, instead of being displaced well to the north as is usual in summer, it has been barreling straight into Scotland or even further south.

I have my own hypothesis, a rather far out one which is quite probably a load of nonsense, that a lot of our regional climate variability including the LIA and Medieval Warm period can be explained by the phenomena you touched on in your question i.e. increased global temperatures having a disproportionate effect on Greenland's ice caps which then cause a major shift in the NW European climate, in winter in particular, although solar activity also appears to have a pretty major effect (along with major volcanic events). Either way, both low solar activity and decreasing NAD temperatures/strength are going to be predominant factors in the coming decades, and so I would expect colder winters to feature quite strongly in the coming few years - a very interesting time to be a climate scientist or indeed a weather forecaster I'm sure.

As for the specific point about December, this is the only month which has so far bucked the trend in having an 81-10 average lower than the 71-00 average. I'm not sure the reason for this but, as December is often the most 'zonal' month with the Polar Vortex building towards its peak, it makes sense that both a southward movement and an increased tendency for High Latitude blocking would be most keenly felt in the month where the jet tends to rule the roost.

[LomondSnowstorm]

a small question for LORENZO or LS when your next on.

 

I have been sat thinking today about this possible pattern change being talked about and how it would set up and going back to the AO and NAO forecasts and I refer back to my post above.

 

if we were to go for a pattern like the 0z did shown in the link then would that pattern be possible with the NAO forecast like it is in a sort of neutral position because from what I see from the run the NAO doesn't actually go negative as there is still low pressures pushing into the Atlantic from the west.

 

or am I reading the NAO wrong from the 0z run.

 

Hi BUS, certainly is possible (the pattern you mean I'm assuming is the one at the end of FI?):

With the core of the blocking centred across Russia/Scandinavia the NAO can be neutral or even slightly positive and still see us in a cold and blocked (as opposed to January 1984 style cold zonality where the NAO can be as positive as you like) setup. The above could eventually lead to a negative NAO as the trough slowly sinks into the continent (although it rather illustrates Steve Murr's point on the MT that we'd need a split flow to bring the WAA to sustain the block and the CAA from the Arctic to actually bring the cold uppers, though the latter is provided on this run by the Asian Mountain Torque event further east) but if the core of the blocking sets up further east we don't *need* a strongly negative NAO to get a decent cold spell. For a long lasting one which is particularly good for Scotland then you really do need a proper Greenie high and subsequent stonkingly negative NAO but a positive NAO doesn't necessarily preclude snow and cold.

9th February 1991 - NAO of +0.4, decent beasterly:

December 1981 - NAO for the middle of the month was generally positive (+0.6 for the chart posted) but with very cold and quite snowy, perhaps more especially for southern Britain with -25.2C recorded at Shawbury on this day:

To be fair, the spell was initiated by a negative NAO and northerly which dropped a PV chunk down to our latitude which largely sustained the cold spell for the next few weeks (think 09/10 without the semi-permanent Greenland High) but it does show again that a negative NAO isn't always necessary for cold.

[Buriedundersnow]

thanks for the reply and yes I was talking about the end of FI where there was a small push to put some heights to our north.

 

interesting read about what you think is leading to the blocking patterns I have my own theory more along the lines of the solar activity on that one but need to learn up on a few more things first before I can see if there is anything in it and it would possibly fall in line with the winters we have been seeing.

[lupe]

There's certainly something in this, and while our local climate is affected by an absolute smorgasbord of different factors often acting in different directions, there are studies which show that (as others have said) low Arctic sea ice extent, by increasing heights to our north and displacing cold air into the mid latitudes:

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/11595

In the longer term of course the idea of the North Atlantic Drift slowing, and perhaps even stopping, via melting Greenland ice is an interesting one - certainly the Atlantic SST tripole, which correlates with a negative NAO and was a key factor in the cold of December 2010 according to the Met Office, suggests that colder temperatures in the mid Atlantic do lead to more blocked winters

Thanks for that LS, i appreciate that and i find the subject fascinating to but also concerning.  I see how you use "in the next few years" and "the coming decades"

instead of in the distant future.  its a pressing fact in one way or another i just didnt know exactly how it worked.

 

It crazy that the rest of the world is experiencing global warming but we will experience climate change that leads to us getting colder. I guess the only positive is we will see more extreme weather to follow, if that really is a positive!   more of the white stuff tho!

It will take me a few reads of your reply to understand  but i had to ask here as the learner's section is kind of well not learning in one bit and the other section had their L plates removed age's ago!  

Hope my post makes sense, im basically saying thanks for the info LS.....darn screen is blurry im that goosed from my darn neighbors shot at "changing rooms"

 

night all 

[Buriedundersnow]

Thanks for that LS, i appreciate that and i find the subject fascinating to but also concerning.  I see how you use "in the next few years" and "the coming decades"

instead of in the distant future.  its a pressing fact in one way or another i just didnt know exactly how it worked.

 

It crazy that the rest of the world is experiencing global warming but we will experience climate change that leads to us getting colder. I guess the only positive is we will see more extreme weather to follow, if that really is a positive!   more of the white stuff tho!

It will take me a few reads of your reply to understand  but i had to ask here as the learner's section is kind of well not learning in one bit and the other section had their L plates removed age's ago!  

Hope my post makes sense, im basically saying thanks for the info LS.....darn screen is blurry im that goosed from my darn neighbors shot at "changing rooms"

 

night all 

 

 

I'm sure I read somewhere that historically through periods of climate change that its usually us in northwest Europe and in south east asia that seem to see the worst and we see what has been happening down there with major flooding plus some severly cold pushes into china

[BurntFishTrousers]

http://www.islayblog.com/2013entries/20131228-nice-islay-storm-video.shtml

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q3EcEdFDW0#t=16

 

(how to embed YT videos? - this forum platform sucks; )

Edited December 29, 2013 by lorenzo
Just paste the link versus using the Link Icon in toolbar. Oh well that's not doing it now either !! LOL !

[Norrance]

A cooler afternoon here with some showers. very icy out now.

 

I remember the warm Dec 1988 quite well. Was working in Aberdeen and my diary showed no frosts in the month. Unlike right now there was no snow on the hills either and at New Year I got a brilliant bargain on a pair of racing skis and bindings at Craigdons in Inverurie due to the poor early season sales.

 

Looks good for the mountains at least going into the New Year and I see the Met O are hinting at possible significant cold later in January.

[Buriedundersnow]

well its been an interesting day model watching.

 

nothing else today has topped the eye candy the 0z GFS gave us in FI following on from yesterdays 12z which it quickly dropped but is no issue in my eyes as I think that was it just finally laying out end of the pattern and our route to cold with the possibility of a Greenland push there after as the 2 highs in the Atlantic which was the first sign seems to be back in the charts.

 

now following on through the day and in my opinion since dropping eye candy the models today have slowly worked there way towards the solution with the ECM 12z having a little shuffle of pattern to fall more in line and also there were signs in the GFS 18z pre 240hr that it also was coming towards this pattern.

 

now obviously there will be more time needed but I am looking at around the 216hr - 264hr mark from tomorrow onwards to be around the time we will see the pattern set to see us blocked to our north so the 7/8th in the models maybe if the pattern is slower the 9/10th and it may not come together tomorrow it may still take a few days for the models to work it all out.

 

then again I might be wrong for the second time this winter which in that case enjoy the rain

 

but I am sure this has a better chance than the last one.

[LomondSnowstorm]

A cooler afternoon here with some showers. very icy out now.

 

I remember the warm Dec 1988 quite well. Was working in Aberdeen and my diary showed no frosts in the month. Unlike right now there was no snow on the hills either and at New Year I got a brilliant bargain on a pair of racing skis and bindings at Craigdons in Inverurie due to the poor early season sales.

 

Looks good for the mountains at least going into the New Year and I see the Met O are hinting at possible significant cold later in January.

 

Uppers on the 12Z GEFS are pretty good for hill snow, with the mean only very briefly hitting 0C in the short term and then remaining pretty consistently around -2C for the rest of the shortish term:

 

It's not anything to write home about as far as low ground snowfall goes, but with the mean trough tracking ever further southwards I doubt it'll be too long before we see some snowy setups present themselves on the operational runs.

 

Ian F (the excellent MO/Beeb forecaster from the southwest of England) is currently looking into where the 'significant cold' comment is coming from, given that the ECM 32 dayer was generally quite westerly dominated - it could well be that their seasonal GLOSEA4 model is sniffing out an SSW by the end of January and the possibility of an instant tropospheric response a la last winter or early February 2009.

[Ravelin]

A cool, calm and sunny start to the day here with a temperature of 2C and a ground frost. Best looking forecast day for the remainder of the year. 

 

Got my Lidl  weather station set up properly yesterday. Ordered an L shaped aerial pole on Fri and to my surprise it turned up in the post yesterday. Got it mounted to one of the vertical posts on the back garden fence so the sensor unit is probably at least 7ft above ground level. Rain sensor is mounted on top of the fence post to keeping away from the dog & kids.

[Hawesy]

Cool and sunny here too, currently +1.4c with a ground frost. Still no air frost for Glasgow Bishopton or Edinburgh Gogarbank so it seems quite possible now neither site will record an air frost in December. http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

[Highland Snow]

Minimum -0.2C at 08.32 with white frost - Seasonal!

[mistyqueen]

get yourself a decent one http://www.russell-scientific.co.uk/kew-barometers-11-c.asp

costs approx £1350, a scientific mercury barometer will last 50+years and will remain accurate/stable.

 

My station mean temperature anomaly for the month so far stands at +1.7C compared to the 1981-2010 average..

 

 

Not a snowball's chance in hell that I'd be able to afford that! Take the zero off the end of the price and I'd think about it!   Anyhoo, something is far wrong up here. Today we have.....no wind....no rain....no winter snow ( as if! ). We have clear blue skies and the sun is shining on the village across the loch. So calm...so lovely! HAH! I'm an idiot if I think that'll last! Best make the most of it then...

[Northernlights]

Very seasonal here too currently 0c with frost that has  come in harder since first light. A photo of Ben Wyvis emerging from the clouds in all her winter glory from a distance and close up over the town of Nairn. Hills  have really taken a plastering in the last few weeks and some huge drifts will have been formed.Reminders of this years winter will be around for a long time on the hills next spring and summer.

Just to add side roads are very slippery this morning with sheet ice everywhere.

Edited December 29, 2013 by Northernlights

[blitzen]

Morning. 2.8c/1,4c/WSW. Lovely morning here and quite chilly.

I am quite enjoying chart watching at the moment as there is plenty to look for. Really don't understand all the despondency on the MOD.  Ridging is beginning to appear which will change the setup from what we have been staring at for weeks on end?. Still a stormy and wet outlook for a while yet unfortunately, but I think the NH is getting its act together in our favour.  I think from the second half of January we will notice a big change.  Don't shoot the messenger!

Edited December 29, 2013 by Blitzen

[Highland Snow]

Lapland currently +1.2C with a major thaw underway - pictures from the Levi winter resort:

 

 

 

So not much of a cold pool to tap into at present from an easterly.

[Cheggers]

Pleasant day so far with scattered clouds. Woke at 7 to let dog oot and my thumping head was met with rather chilly air, and frost on the ground, and a strange phenomenon of nae wind. Currently 6c. 

[Buriedundersnow]

well what a nice wee day for a change with the sun shining and no wind or rain but that wont stay the same for long so if your into skiing get up there it looks good

 

 

we also had a frost for a few last night

 

 

but wont be long till the rain comes in again its already on its march towards us

 

 

with the possibility of things getting wild with another sting jet maybe down south

 

 

seems to be plenty of them about this year

 

then in a couple of days we have new year and it looks like it will be cloudy for the night itself with winds picking up as we progress through the night

 

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM mean anomalies charts still looking good this morning and continuing the theme with heights building to our north with the first piece if energy dropping into Europe the Atlantic being blocked off and shows what LS was alluding to last night with the trough over us at the end dropping south

 

[Buriedundersnow]

Morning. 2.8c/1,4c/WSW. Lovely morning here and quite chilly.

I am quite enjoying chart watching at the moment as there is plenty to look for. Really don't understand all the despondency on the MOD.  Ridging is beginning to appear which will change the setup from what we have been staring at for weeks on end?. Still a stormy and wet outlook for a while yet unfortunately, but I think the NH is getting its act together in our favour.  I think from the second half of January we will notice a big change.  Don't shoot the messenger!

 

 

decided to go in the MOD thread to see what you were meaning and your right about the despondency can see a few of them contemplating jumping off the nearest cliff if the models don't show anything good soon

 

it is a bit weird the now America have been experiencing all the cold so far and now they are calling for us to see some which I would tend to lean towards believing them as they will have been looking through the patterns in great detail over the past few weeks due to the massive arctic blasts and will probably have a better hold on what will happen next plus they seem to be well respected and knowledgeable people.

 

I think the main problem within the MOD thread is any time we see something semi decent pop up in the models there is always someone ready to put it to bed referencing the strat which might be a valid point but I think the strat may be more open to favouring us seeing some cold than it was weeks ago.

 

another thing I haven't worked out really as well is with this strong PV keeping the cold bottled over the arctic how has America managed to see such cold blasts like they have been seeing I have a thoughts which will tie in with my blocking theory but need more time to find out a little more on the subject.

 

I am also with you concerning the second half of January seeing a big change and think the pieces may be falling into place over the next ten days.

[edo]

This winter is beginning to feel like a chase again looking for the good charts but still hopeful based on some of the LRFs that indeed this could be a more traditional winter with jan and February seeing the best of the weather....best being snowy for avoidance of doubt

[Norrance]

Cool but fair here today. Currently 3.5C from a max of 4.0C. Just scraped an air frost with -0.1C this morning.

[Buriedundersnow]

well the GFS 12z took a step in the right direction today and was pretty good up till 192hr where it went wrong from there but it has thrown in the ridge in the atlantic seen in the charts below which is in time with my thoughts for the first push of heights to our north but unfortunately due to the GFS place energy from the PV over northern Greenland this wasn't able to stick this time round but watch for this in future should the models go down the route I have been thinking. 

 

 

if this is the pattern then there are still a few small things to be worked out by GFS and we move on to see if the ECM can go down the same lines or not.

[Buriedundersnow]

rainfall totals for the next 7 days

 

 

looks like its going to be a rather soggy affair for alot

[lupe]

Hey folk's,

 

You can kindof guess what the weather is in my area, besides in not going to tell you! i decided i am in a major huff now the storms have passed....you see i can understand scientific terms like "blawin a hoolie"  and predictions like "hatten down the batches"  but now im completely lost lol   I thought until a few day's ago some of these charts you are mentioning are type's of mazda's

 

Anyhoo crystal here today and stove is stoked up ready for me to "get ma hid" around some of the things you are saying lol   Think of me as a fish out of water only flapping about on the bank lol

Right, im away to pull the batteries oot my weather station in temper 

 

if i can borrow the neghbors ladder    hope your all ok! 

just seen your newest post  bus i understand that one!!!  woop woop 

Edited December 29, 2013 by lupe