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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

When is this to happen? I don't understand +168 hours. Husband needs to pick up son at 4am on New Years day (he working) and is asking for the forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

Morning all,

 

Nice post, LS, putting the current December into context. I remember 1988 - I was 18 and a bigger snow fan back then than I am now ;-) - and it was awful.

 

GFS this morning with 850s out to +180 in the narrow range of +3c to -4c for Leuchars. If it verifies we'll be having temps very close to average, along with sunshine and showers between systems. Snow will be confined to the hills.

 

5c this morning, mostly cloudy and breezy.

 

p.s. Mardatha, +168 is next Saturday (4th Jan).

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Posted
  • Location: Campsie
  • Location: Campsie

The models all indicate more of the same cool and showery theme as we move towards the New Year with the driver for this being a pretty solid looking Polar Vortex to the north of Canada. Pressure remains quite low to our north and quite high to our south and this pattern doesnt look as though it will change much over the next 7 days. 

 

The positives this morning would be the occasional chart showing marginal snow conditions, more particularly the further north you go, and there is no shortage of precipitation, so if things fall into place there could still be some heavy snowfall for someone over the next 10 days or so. Pressure is also predicted to rise a little over Greenland and ensembles also indicate a very gradual drop in temperature.

 

Overall though no big changes showing yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Morning all! Wet and windy here again...surprise! been trying to sort out my latest ( cheapo! ) weather station. Bought it in November but the pressure has always been way out, at least 20mb lower than my other two. the problem is the instructions. Yes, they are in English, but were obviously written by someone whose first language is not English. Very frustrating! However, will spend some more time this afternoon pressing buttons and see where it gets me!

 

Looking as if it might be wet and windy again at Hogmanay, would I be right?

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Articscot1 i think the only answer is to post some pics for us snowless souls :)

 

Charts do still seem to show potential pattern change and jet is progged to dive so lets hope we start to see things working in our favour very soon.

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Posted
  • Location: In the country near Gorebridge 203m asl
  • Location: In the country near Gorebridge 203m asl

don't worry Piers Corbyn says 'snowmaggedon' East Midlands northwards esp east coast in the very first days of Jan!

hehehe

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Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)

So far not the worst day ever, grey with a stiff breeze only. At least we got oot with the pup without looking like we have a furry kite at the end of a lead.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

 

This type of energy takes time to wind down but it will and I am hopeful that we will see height rises north and west of the UK in the next couple of weeks which will shut down the Atlantic storm train but in turn, turning things a lot colder over Europe.

I’m not a fan of hype, providing misinformation and wish casting but I am going to provide you with more evidence which suggests to me that we have, hopefully, a much colder pattern in January.

Models of course do shift around but I’m noticing in the ECMWF   Control that we’ve lows that look to shift south as heights build initially over Russia, then Scandinavia and eventually over Greenland. Remember the CFSv2 500mb heights which has been shown frequently in recent days which shows the block developing over the arctic and the hooking up of the Alaska-Greenland and eastern Europe highs..

Below is the ECMWF   Control surface charts which show lows dropping south while heights rise across the north.

252 hrs (6 Jan)

Posted Image

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

 

 

 

 

 

 

CATCH  I see lots of promise this morning from the GFS reference quote above which is a snippet from what I posted yesterday.

 

should add the bit in the quote wasn't from me it was posted from an outside source not from this forum which I found while looking for things yesterday

 

now to explain.

 

yesterday in the 12z we sort of saw a move towards what this was on about with some very encouraging signs with concerns to blocking to our north and was looking to pick up the kind of pattern talked about as seen below

 

post-18233-0-05050000-1388234836_thumb.ppost-18233-0-69204000-1388234836_thumb.p

 

now we move on to this mornings 0z and we follow the pattern and sort of work it out a little more and if you look up to the quote its uncanny

 

heights linking up between Alaska, Greenland and eastern Europe with heights to our north - check

 

heights starting to build out to our west to shut off the Atlantic - check

 

lows dropping south while heights build to our north - check

 

post-18233-0-54334300-1388235259_thumb.ppost-18233-0-80064700-1388235259_thumb.p

 

now this has taken the pattern forward a little and also we see better 850's building over Scandinavia also here is the link to this mornings 0z so you can run through it and see the lows dropping south and the pattern play out

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&heure=0&jour=28&mois=12&annee=2013&archive=1&carte=1

 

now obviously this is right at the end of the GFS and has always to be taken with a pinch of salt but also has to be looked at after it continuing from yesterdays hints and moving the pattern forward which is uncanny how it matches with what was in the post that the ECM was showing at the 500mb level and the GFS does have a tendency to drop things back in its runs which might be the case here or we may see it run with idea

 

it also looks to ridge the heights through between us and Scandinavia which is being hinted at by the ECM strat charts recently

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

 

Seems odd to say when talking about mild months in the context of AGW/the general increase in Scottish and UK temperatures in the last 100-200 years but we were overdue a mild DecemberPosted Image

Afternoon folk's  

Enjoyed that post LS,  I have a question though and its regarding the run of sub 4.5 december's.

Forgive me please if this is a naive question and if it is in the wrong forum ( no brave enough to go in Posted Image  ) but I wondered if anyone can shed a wee bit of light?

 

So with the sea warming this will effect how the gulf stream and drift operate,  and it turn this dictates our weather over the british isles. I read somewhere a while ago  the shift on the gulf due to global warming would see our average temps plummet...especially for Scotland  ( LS said we had run of below average temps).... so in effect scotland will be experiencing climate change while the rest of the world experiences global warming.    

 

so to sum it up is there a chance we are on path for more of the white stuff? or did i dream this all up?

 

if its a daft question or i dont make sense its from my alarm clock going off way too early the last few day's,  i cant switch it off either as its 6ft tall and lives next door with a load of concrete to cut.  Mind you my missius is going to take the batteries out before longPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Articscot1 i think the only answer is to post some pics for us snowless souls Posted Image

 

Charts do still seem to show potential pattern change and jet is progged to dive so lets hope we start to see things working in our favour very soon.

 

I second that with the pics and I wonder if he is seeing anything like this I found on twitter

 

people ice skating in the streets in Canada

 

post-18233-0-43109400-1388239466_thumb.j

 

hopefully we will see some cold like this soon

 

BRITISH WEATHER SVS â€@BritWeatherSvs 3h

New Year: First two weeks of January shaping up to be colder - with snow for many. Not saying when & how much just yet, but just expect it.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

nevis range looking snowy

 

Nevis Range â€@TheNevisRange 5m

Very stormbound pic.twitter.com/KQ4z6ZIfo9

 
post-18233-0-77825800-1388240005_thumb.j

 

 

and I wouldn't mind some of this before winters end

 

 This is Livigno in the Italian Alps yesterday. 1800m reports of 250cm of fresh snow. pic.twitter.com/UIVc7dE3a5"

 

post-18233-0-84963300-1388240005_thumb.jPosted Image

 

PS: LUPE I will leave your question for someone more technically minded as I am not very clued up with that stuff maybe LS or LORENZO would know about that or point you somewhere to find out

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

KK Bus,   Just feel it our winters are set to get very cold and snowy again, in theory the gulf gets weaker then we are more exposed to the northern wind....

With all our wet and windy weather and longing for the white stuff this could be a dream come true for most of us.  hopefully LS or LORENZO will spy my ? later..

 

Awesome pic's of canada, man wish it were here!  mind you i cant skate lol     Cant believe nevis range when up the road with me today is pushing 7 degree's and even windchill is struggling to get below 5.....  

 

Catch up later folks, mother in law coming within the hour .Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

KK Bus,   Just feel it our winters are set to get very cold and snowy again, in theory the gulf gets weaker then we are more exposed to the northern wind....

With all our wet and windy weather and longing for the white stuff this could be a dream come true for most of us.  hopefully LS or LORENZO will spy my ? later..

 

Awesome pic's of canada, man wish it were here!  mind you i cant skate lol     Cant believe nevis range when up the road with me today is pushing 7 degree's and even windchill is struggling to get below 5.....  

 

Catch up later folks, mother in law coming within the hour .Posted Image

 

 

the only thing I have heard about the gulf stream is a theory that in cold winters where we see blocking to our north and we see winds going from east to west instead of west to east then this can cause the gulf stream at the surface to be diverted up the west side of Greenland instead of taking its usual flow up the east side and towards the arctic but its only a theory and that's all I have heard on the matter but like I said others might have heard or know more on this subject

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Posted
  • Location: Lairg
  • Weather Preferences: crystal cold man!
  • Location: Lairg

Ah i see,  well its something to do with the ice caps melting which cool's the sea's surface temp  which means cooler water evaporates into the gulf air stream which changes its pattern.....(also something to do with salt water and the cold freshwater of ice caps around atlantic effecting air stream to......

 

 

Right will catch you later and thanks bus

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Snowing in Dundee according to the reporter on Soccer Saturday at the Dundee game

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

Morning all! Wet and windy here again...surprise! been trying to sort out my latest ( cheapo! ) weather station. Bought it in November but the pressure has always been way out, at least 20mb lower than my other two. the problem is the instructions. Yes, they are in English, but were obviously written by someone whose first language is not English. Very frustrating! However, will spend some more time this afternoon pressing buttons and see where it gets me!

 

Looking as if it might be wet and windy again at Hogmanay, would I be right?

get yourself a decent one http://www.russell-scientific.co.uk/kew-barometers-11-c.asp

costs approx £1350, a scientific mercury barometer will last 50+years and will remain accurate/stable.

 

My station mean temperature anomaly for the month so far stands at +1.7C compared to the 1981-2010 average..

Edited by snow1975
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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Ah i see,  well its something to do with the ice caps melting which cool's the sea's surface temp  which means cooler water evaporates into the gulf air stream which changes its pattern.....(also something to do with salt water and the cold freshwater of ice caps around atlantic effecting air stream to......

 

 

Right will catch you later and thanks bus

I'm no expert but a lot of the theory surrounding the gulf stream is to do with the melting of the ice caps. As the sea freezes the ice formed contains little or no salt. This means the surface seawater at the pole contains more salt and is denser than the seawater below, therefore it sinks. This dense, sinking seawater helps drive ocean circulation and if less ice is being formed the circulation is weaker. I assume the gulf stream, being a surface feature, is also driven to a large extent by the atmosphere and the tendency of weather systems to travel from SW to NE across the Atlantic. Change the pressure difference between the equator and poles and this flow will be affected.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

CATCH  I see lots of promise this morning from the GFS reference quote above which is a snippet from what I posted yesterday.

 

should add the bit in the quote wasn't from me it was posted from an outside source not from this forum which I found while looking for things yesterday

 

now to explain.

 

yesterday in the 12z we sort of saw a move towards what this was on about with some very encouraging signs with concerns to blocking to our north and was looking to pick up the kind of pattern talked about as seen below

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-384.pngPosted Imagegfsnh-1-384.png

 

now we move on to this mornings 0z and we follow the pattern and sort of work it out a little more and if you look up to the quote its uncanny

 

heights linking up between Alaska, Greenland and eastern Europe with heights to our north - check

 

heights starting to build out to our west to shut off the Atlantic - check

 

lows dropping south while heights build to our north - check

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-2013122800-0-384.pngPosted Imagegfsnh-2013122800-1-384.png

 

now this has taken the pattern forward a little and also we see better 850's building over Scandinavia also here is the link to this mornings 0z so you can run through it and see the lows dropping south and the pattern play out

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&heure=0&jour=28&mois=12&annee=2013&archive=1&carte=1

 

now obviously this is right at the end of the GFS and has always to be taken with a pinch of salt but also has to be looked at after it continuing from yesterdays hints and moving the pattern forward which is uncanny how it matches with what was in the post that the ECM was showing at the 500mb level and the GFS does have a tendency to drop things back in its runs which might be the case here or we may see it run with idea

 

it also looks to ridge the heights through between us and Scandinavia which is being hinted at by the ECM strat charts recently

 

 

a small question for LORENZO or LS when your next on.

 

I have been sat thinking today about this possible pattern change being talked about and how it would set up and going back to the AO and NAO forecasts and I refer back to my post above.

 

if we were to go for a pattern like the 0z did shown in the link then would that pattern be possible with the NAO forecast like it is in a sort of neutral position because from what I see from the run the NAO doesn't actually go negative as there is still low pressures pushing into the Atlantic from the west.

 

or am I reading the NAO wrong from the 0z run.

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Evening! I have noticed that the GLAAM forecast seems to be high , can i ask the effect of this and can this be good news? I was speaking to family friend who said to me regarding the UK winter weather to always keep eyes on the alps if its snowy weather you are after. Interesting. Anyway adios for the time. (Away to put on my suit as i take FIFA serious, wish me luck!)

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I always thought the AO and NAO were derived from the charts, rather than driving anything in themselves?

 

 

yeah but what I was meaning if that run was in the NAO forecast would it show as negative or would it be inline with the forecast we are seeing as the Atlantic doesn't actually get shut off

 

post-18233-0-75532700-1388262679_thumb.g

 

like if it was in this forecast would it show as going negative or would it be in with the neutral to slightly positive as there is no real ridging stopping lows from moving through

 

obviously it wont be in that forecast there but just wanted to know for reference if the NAO doesn't show any negative runs is that solution still possible within them

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Evening! I have noticed that the GLAAM forecast seems to be high , can i ask the effect of this and can this be good news? I was speaking to family friend who said to me regarding the UK winter weather to always keep eyes on the alps if its snowy weather you are after. Interesting. Anyway adios for the time. (Away to put on my suit as i take FIFA serious, wish me luck!)

 

 

I might be wrong but I think GLAAM is what we need to see to allow us to have low pressures move northwest to southeast and I also think it helps high pressures move north but don't quote me on that its something I have only just started to look into

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM 7-10 day mean anomalies charts don't look too bad.

 

first lot of energy dropping southeast into Europe with the Atlantic getting blocked off and the second lot of energy moving in the right direction

 

post-18233-0-43314200-1388264016_thumb.gpost-18233-0-15257100-1388264029_thumb.gpost-18233-0-21013400-1388264030_thumb.gpost-18233-0-77530200-1388264030_thumb.g

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