scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[skyeblue]

If this was to happen it will be the worst natural disaster of all time .Talking to the locals of the the canaries it,s gonna happen but don,t when

[Buriedundersnow]

Bus,

just looking at your punt for the next few months below each of your posts.  How does a SSW wind bring cooler weather?  i think thats what your saying is it?.

I thought it was the east and northly type wids that brought us the cold white stuff?

 

 

in this case SSW = sudden stratospheric warming

 

an SSW can bring us severely cold weather in winter

 

usually our winds are basically westerly winds with low pressures being brought from west to east and in winter this is governed by the POLAR VORTEX a big cold low pressure system in the stratosphere that turns like any other low pressure in the northern hemisphere in an anti-clockwise motion and its influence means the weather down here goes in the same direction from west to east with a strong jet stream meaning no high pressure can develop to the north keeping all the cold air bottled up in the arctic and the only way to change this is to disrupt the vortex through different things.

 

you can temporarily disrupt the vortex through either WAVE ACTIVITY or MINOR WARMINGS which will temporarily disrupt or displace the vortex reducing the westerly flow and can allow blocking to set up but unless there is added pressure kept on the vortex it will reform and return the westerly flow

 

 

now an SSW is totally different this can tear the vortex apart making it very hard to recover and can mean we see the westerly winds replaced with easterly or blocking patterns (high pressure building to the north) for longer periods and can last right till winters end.

 

to get an SSW you have to get the higher temperatures into the vortex itself to tear it apart and raise temperatures over the pole itself

 

 

we also have to see this propagate as well to achieve an SSW the stratosphere has many layers from 0.01hpa to 100hpa and to get an SSW these temperatures have to infiltrate the vortex layer by layer down below 30hpa and only once this is done we can call a technical SSW.

 

once the vortex has been torn apart then the pieces spread and we can see high pressure build in the areas where no vortex is and this allows the cold air over the arctic to spill out to lower lattitudes like ours and deliver the deep cold and snow we all love in winter.

 

thats my take on it anyway and hope I am right lol

 

and also hope it makes some sense

Edited December 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

If this was to happen it will be the worst natural disaster of all time .Talking to the locals of the the canaries it,s gonna happen but don,t when

 

 

yes it will happen and its not only earthquakes that is the danger its volcanic eruptions as well as the reason the island is splitting is due to water being held in fissures inside the mountain which means when magna moves into the volcano and heats the water it means the pressure inside the island raises pushing it apart and breaking it up.

 

the earthquake today is thought to be from an intrusion of fresh magma into the chamber loading up the volcano for an eruption which means if temps rise inside the island and enough pressure builds the island could be ripped clean in half.

[arcticscot1]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd introduce myself. I'm John now living and working in Cambridge Bay in the Canadian North but originally from Glasgow (we left when I was 14 years old). Been reading the storm threads and thought I would register to read the Scottish thread too. I doubt I'll be of any help based so far away but still have a general interest in Scottish weather so keep up the good work as your brightening up a cold dark winter at this end. 

 

BTW your more than welcome to borrow some of our snow haha currently its -33c!

[lupe]

Wow Bus,

 

Thats awesome info and right up my street of things to learn,  im kinda thirsty for it if you know what i mean...signing out to cook curry just now but im going to re-read and digest that again later.

Really appreciate your time bro, thanks .

[Buriedundersnow]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd introduce myself. I'm John now living and working in Cambridge Bay in the Canadian North but originally from Glasgow (we left when I was 14 years old). Been reading the storm threads and thought I would register to read the Scottish thread too. I doubt I'll be of any help based so far away but still have a general interest in Scottish weather so keep up the good work as your brightening up a cold dark winter at this end. 

 

BTW your more than welcome to borrow some of our snow haha currently its -33c!

 

welcome to the thread ARCTICSCOT1

 

wish we could steal some of your snow just a little jealous at what you's are seeing just now.

[Buriedundersnow]

Wow Bus,

 

Thats awesome info and right up my street of things to learn,  im kinda thirsty for it if you know what i mean...signing out to cook curry just now but im going to re-read and digest that again later.

Really appreciate your time bro, thanks .

 

if your interested about learning the stratosphere try this thread its all about the stratosphere and you will probably pick up a lot more info in there

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/

[lupe]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd introduce myself. I'm John now living and working in Cambridge Bay in the Canadian North but originally from Glasgow (we left when I was 14 years old). Been reading the storm threads and thought I would register to read the Scottish thread too. I doubt I'll be of any help based so far away but still have a general interest in Scottish weather so keep up the good work as your brightening up a cold dark winter at this end. 

 

BTW your more than welcome to borrow some of our snow haha currently its -33c!

Hey buddy!  really nice having you here!  hope your welcome was as warm as mine a few days ago  -33!!  bring it on!  i registered a -24 beginning of the year but -33?!!  anyhoo,  all the best here!

[lorenzo]

RE SSW - rather than provide the huge technical explanation ( stratosphere thread is the home for that). This 57 second vid sums it all up neatly.

 

[edo]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd introduce myself. I'm John now living and working in Cambridge Bay in the Canadian North but originally from Glasgow (we left when I was 14 years old). Been reading the storm threads and thought I would register to read the Scottish thread too. I doubt I'll be of any help based so far away but still have a general interest in Scottish weather so keep up the good work as your brightening up a cold dark winter at this end. 

 

BTW your more than welcome to borrow some of our snow haha currently its -33c!

Welcome and I see your from Nunavut the newest region of Canada!! We got cracker from Costco for xmas dinner and they were Canadian..... Spent 30 mins answering Canadian trivia questions which were handily also printed in French

I'm jealous of yer Tim Hortons.... Addicted to their coffee and timbits

[maggiebaggie]

Is still pretty windy here. local weather station says wind gusts at 47mph at minute altho we're further up the hill and more exposed. Its rained all day as well so me and kids getting cabin fever.

Has the worst passed?

Am looking forward to not hearing wind in background even if for an hour!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I've done a wee blogpost on how the winter (and my winter forecast) is shaping up so far and on the medium-long term outlook for the rest of the winter.

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4709-winter-forecast-recapupdate/

[lupe]

Thanks lorenzo,   i appreciate that....just a quick rectification on my -24 that i said to our canadian friend,  that was windchill not ambient .not that it's an important but i felt a bit of a numpty.

[Buriedundersnow]

Is still pretty windy here. local weather station says wind gusts at 47mph at minute altho we're further up the hill and more exposed. Its rained all day as well so me and kids getting cabin fever.Has the worst passed?Am looking forward to not hearing wind in background even if for an hour!

 

things should ease down with this through tomorrow but wind isn't going to be far away over the next week or so

 

heres the latest chart

 

[Highland Snow]

That's another 12.7mm of rain today bringing the monthly total to 178.8mm and more inbound before the old year is out.

[Cheggers]

Wet and windy still!!! 

[maggiebaggie]

thanks BUS. I might just go get earplugs!!

Last night windy too so hoping to get better sleep tonight once hubby in from his Glasgow commute at 2am!

[pleasesnownow]

Getting so bored now with this wind

[Buriedundersnow]

still some decent gusts about here wee shake of the house with the last one

Edited December 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[November13]

Yes enough wind for me!Next!

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM 12z was at warm end of the ensembles for london the GFS 12z was right inline with the ECM extended mean

 

[Norrance]

That's another 12.7mm of rain today bringing the monthly total to 178.8mm and more inbound before the old year is out.

That has been very wet. Here I am almost 100 mms lower not counting today's rain and I still thought that it was wet.

 

Managed to get around quite well in our travels over the Christmas period missing the worst especially on the bridges. Some flooding today up in Highland Perths and still banks of snow by the road over around 300 mtrs asl on the way over from Crieff to Aberfeldy. Couldn't see too much of the higher hills but looked pretty white in the glimpses we had. Not much sign of snow on the Ochills though but could see some patchy stuff towards the tops.

Currently windy with showers and a temp of 6.2C.

Here's to a whiter New Year.

[Hiya]

I've done a wee blogpost on how the winter (and my winter forecast) is shaping up so far and on the medium-long term outlook for the rest of the winter.

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4709-winter-forecast-recapupdate/

 

The Scottish mean must be getting on for record breaking surely?

[LomondSnowstorm]

The Scottish mean must be getting on for record breaking surely?

 

Hmm, it's going to be in the top 10 certainly but not sure it's quite record breaking - Phillip Eden currently has the anomaly at around +2.1 to the 25th for Scotland (+1.6C for North, +2.3C for West and +2.5C for East), the 81-10 mean is 2.8C for the whole month which means we're probably running around the 5C mark to the 25th. The next few days aren't going to see anything massively mild to push that upwards so I reckon we'll be stuck somewhere between 5.1C and 4.7C for the month as a whole. Anything above 4.9C would put us at 5th highest in the rankings but I think we're probably safe from ending up in the top 4, which are:

1988: 5.8C

1971: 5.7C

1934: 5.6C

1924: 5.6C

The next ones down are '31 and '21 (both 4.9C), '74 and '42 (4.8C) and then '56 and '53 (4.7C). The lack of very mild Decembers since 1988 has been very noticeable given almost all other months have seen either record or near record highs in the 100 year series since then - 2006 at 4.4C was the mildest since then and we're almost bound to come in higher than that, so this will be the mildest December in 25 years and will bring to end the longest run of consecutive sub 4.5C Decembers in the last 100 years.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt

Seems odd to say when talking about mild months in the context of AGW/the general increase in Scottish and UK temperatures in the last 100-200 years but we were overdue a mild December

Edited December 28, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Buriedundersnow]

small but pretty intense high pressure anomaly developing over the pole at 500hpa