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Severe Atlantic Storms Over The Christmas Period #2


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AMBER WARNING FOR WIND ON TUESDAY!

FOR LONDON & SOUTH EAST ENGLAND.

 

Southwesterly gales and locally severe gales will continue across southern and eastern parts of England during Monday night, but are expected to strengthen further across parts of southeast England, in the Amber warning area, during the early hours of Tuesday, with gusts of 65-75 mph inland and 75-85 mph along exposed coasts. The winds will ease from the west by morning.

 
The public should be prepared for disruption, particularly to travel and for interruptions to power supplies.
 
Winds will strengthen further across southeast England during the early hours of Tuesday, with the potential for damaging gusts inland as well as along the coast. The winds will ease quickly from the west before dawn.
Edited by Skulltheruler
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About time the Met Office gave us an amber for wind in the SE.  I was amazed they didn't put it to amber yesterday.  Bit belated if you ask me, although I appreciate they're having their work cut out down in Exeter at the moment.

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Amber warning for wind issued for London, SE England & East of England now (not SW England where amber warning for rain and yellow for wind remain in place). Warnings look very confusing on Met Office website!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&regionName=sw&fcTime=1387843200&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

Edited by Cold Winter
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Do you know if it is developing to expectations right now Sainsbo? I remember hearing Peter Gibbs yesterday suggesting it would be at its deepest over the sea, so other than via buoy readings they might not get an official reading as to whether the record gets broken. Nonetheless, by his projections I firmly believe we have approximately another twelve hours of deepening possible yet.

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Hmm, given that the whole country is going to see similar wind speeds today and tomorrow, shouldn't we all be under the same level of warnings? Met office are still saying up to 90mph for Western Scotland, yet we're only at Amber warning levels.....

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Amber for SE now for Wind

 

Valid from: 
0005 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

Valid to: 
0600 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

Southwesterly gales and locally severe gales will continue across southern and eastern parts of England during Monday night, but are expected to strengthen further across parts of southeast England, in the Amber warning area, during the early hours of Tuesday, with gusts of 65-75 mph inland and 75-85 mph along exposed coasts. The winds will ease from the west by morning.

The public should be prepared for disruption, particularly to travel and for interruptions to power supplies. Winds will strengthen further across southeast England during the early hours of Tuesday, with the potential for damaging gusts inland as well as along the coast. The winds will ease quickly from the west before dawn.
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I'm not sure, but I think there may be an Amber warning out there Posted Image

 

Does the Met OFfice not have any webcams of their own? I'm guessing it's not very nice down there!

Edited by SteveCoops
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Here's the NMM 6 for later this evening, secondary wave of winds looks to be the strongest across the south east coast.

post-15177-0-95978600-1387797284_thumb.p post-15177-0-82658400-1387797307_thumb.p post-15177-0-42714600-1387797318_thumb.p

Quite consistent modelling of the rainfall projections..

NMM 6 day 1 & 2..

post-15177-0-66994000-1387797425_thumb.p post-15177-0-40321300-1387797456_thumb.p

NMM 18 day 1 & 2..

post-15177-0-49592000-1387797500_thumb.p post-15177-0-10490200-1387797525_thumb.p

WRF is still going for 928mb tomorrow! :O

post-15177-0-25608300-1387797874_thumb.p

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Do you know if it is developing to expectations right now Sainsbo? I remember hearing Peter Gibbs yesterday suggesting it would be at its deepest over the sea, so other than via buoy readings they might not get an official reading as to whether the record gets broken. Nonetheless, by his projections I firmly believe we have approximately another twelve hours of deepening possible yet.

What is the record? I thought it was about 925mb - got quite a way to go to beat that, maybe more chance in tomorrows effort?

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Do you know if it is developing to expectations right now Sainsbo? I remember hearing Peter Gibbs yesterday suggesting it would be at its deepest over the sea, so other than via buoy readings they might not get an official reading as to whether the record gets broken. Nonetheless, by his projections I firmly believe we have approximately another twelve hours of deepening possible yet.

 

Agreed, possibly more IMO

 

It does like like it is deepening as it is expected to. The GFS has it at 955mb at 12, so 957mb at 11 and dropping at a rate of 3-4mb/hr looks like it's keeping up just fine Posted Image

 

 

What is the record? I thought it was about 925mb - got quite a way to go to beat that, maybe more chance in tomorrows effort?

 

I don't think there is much chance, if any, of that record being broken. Even though it may deepen to 925 (NOAA still predict it going to 924mb!), it'l likely be north and not over land by then.

 

My guess is gonna be 932mb near Stornoway sometime tomorrow

Edited by Sainsbo
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10 39am John Curtin, who is head of incident management at the Environment Agency, tweets: "#ukstorm being described as an 'explosively deepening' low - its not as alarming as it sounds but follow our warnings."

LMAO There will be quite a few people pooing their pants reading that one !

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top gust I've recorded so far this morning - 71 mph. Wtaching the slates on the garage roof lifting up and down, which isn't very pleasant. Quite surprised as it wasn't supposed to be quite that strong for this location today.

 

Surprised as well, we're only meant to be getting 50-60 mph gusts up north. Then again you are quite high up, nothing special down in the town centre.

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Low centre is probably near 955hPa now, waiting for k4 to update but at 10am it still had 30mph easterlies and a pressure of 960hPa suggesting centre was somewhere to its south and not too close to it.-

 

 Edit....

 

K4 buoy now to 956.7 mb

 

With 20mph easterlies, suggesting centre is near 950hPa @ 11am. Around 10hPa deeper than progged by EURO4 model for midday.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Edited by Matty M
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