Severe Atlantic Storms Over The Christmas Period #2

[Mokidugway]

From Peter Kirk on Twitter:

 

"Low just NW of Scotland down to 927hPa per the 12Z Met Office FAX chart"

 

 

That makes it only the 7th Mid Latitude Cyclone ever recorded in the North Atlantic to fall below 930mb. Stunning to look at on satellite imagery too.

 

WOW !...( now back to the sprouts) ....

[Liam J]

A couple charts from the 12z runs which are rolling out, really winding up for later on the 26th into Friday...

 

GME

GFS

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2013 by Liam J

[pip22]

The 12z GFS is showing the Friday's storm tracking over Scotland and bringing severe gales/storm force winds for Northern England, Southern Scotland and NI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2013 by pip22

[IanR]

I was expecting at least something like bawbag or the 98 boxing day storm, but nope, just typical winter storm weather, rattles the roof but nothing out the ordinary.

Just a mere twig mover here, we were expecting 50 - 60 mph gusts,  I have seen stronger winds on one of those fine but breezy  sunny summers days,

Not even concerned about the next storm, I can write the script for my location even now

[Chris W]

Pretty blowy here in the north east and gusting around 45-50mph but strengthening.  Checking in again at the BBC forecast it loks like we are in for a windy evening (gusts up to 70mph) before this plays itself out.

[The PIT]

Fridays storm looking more interesting for me at the moment. Whether it will stay that way when we get closer the time is another matter of course. Today just a blustery day so Met office one GFS nil.

[IanR]

What a bizarre storm this is turning out to be

 

The far south coast - south-east seemed to get hit hardest (furthest away from the low)

 

Normally, you expect places nearer the center to get the worst of it

 

I hope these storms do bugger off, so we can just focus on Christmas, and chill

The south always get the interesting weather now , no matter where the centre of low goes , The next storm is meant to be a north event, but you can bet the south will get in on the act, leaving parts of northern England wondering what the fuss is about again

Sorry but its just the truth

[cheese]

That might be the case for Manchester and its hinterland, but not here. We had a 76mph gust earlier this month with sustained speeds approaching 50mph. I think it's normal for the Vale of York to record stronger winds in any case - that is usually what happens in my experience. Winds seem to flow down the Pennines, gaining speed as they do so.

 

However, I do agree that this low pressure has not delivered at all here - today was breezy, but not very windy. Certainly not close to 70mph. Friday looks pretty bad on the GFS and UKMO however. I guess the isobar gradient was not tight enough here.

Edited December 24, 2013 by cheese

[Robbie Garrett]

Was at least gust 70mph in London. I've got an email that one of our aircraft tie downs snapped and aircraft was blown 100ft sideways.

[hec1]

wind picking up here again, though nothing unusual

[Swave Snow]

going out my nut here netweather radar suggests really heavy snow in aviemore (where i am at the moment) and zilcho coming down,  such a let down for a snow lover, the damn stuff is overhead but aint coming down, everywhere else around is getting hammered.

[Rich_Clements]

going out my nut here netweather radar suggests really heavy snow in aviemore (where i am at the moment) and zilcho coming down,  such a let down for a snow lover, the damn stuff is overhead but aint coming down, everywhere else around is getting hammered.

Thats Murphy's weather law

[Richie V]

I can't help but feel that many on here are dissapointed with this storm just passed (me included)

All I will say is, for those who missed out, chin up, friday looks fab from the north mids northward. Our time is nearly here. I'm off for a whiskey or ten....

MERRRRRRY XMAS PEEPS XX

[laserguy]

I'm not far from you RV, and can confirm that we've had absolutely sod-all around here - what a surprise. Everyone else in the country having fun while we're in the Doldrums, nearest I'll get to any action is the arcade 'hurricane simulator' in a Sheffield entertainment complex. Here's hoping to an absolute washout summer for recompense.

[sclarke]

I'm not far from you RV, and can confirm that we've had absolutely sod-all around here - what a surprise. Everyone else in the country having fun while we're in the Doldrums, nearest I'll get to any action is the arcade 'hurricane simulator' in a Sheffield entertainment complex. Here's hoping to an absolute washout summer for recompense.

 

To be honest, moving all your furniture upstairs to avoid the on-rushing floods on Christmas Eve, isn't what I'd call fun........Lucky escape is what I'd say.

[laserguy]

To be honest, moving all your furniture upstairs to avoid the on-rushing floods on Christmas Eve, isn't what I'd call fun........Lucky escape is what I'd say.

 

It'd beat going to the mother-in-law's for Xmas lunch - trust me.

[Bluebreezer54]

What's happening in some locations down here tonight is not most peoples idea of 'fun'. It would be bad enough at any time of the year let alone on Christmas Eve.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25502730

[Snowshine]

LONG RANGE STORMS DUE (UK)

FRIDAY - Most GEFS models show this storm heading directly over Scotland, affecting mainly the usual North Western areas, although other areas may be disrupted if these turn out to be the most accurate models. Other models, such as the one shown below, shows this low pressure system as being quite a weak one compared to Monday's Storm. If this model turns out correct then the South do not have much to worry about apart from some rain and blustery winds.

MONDAY - This could either be a fairly damaging (55%) storm, weak (35%) storm, damaging (9%), deadly (1%). The models are extremely mixed, some show the storm hitting at a later date, some show the storm not hitting at all, some models don't even show the storm. If it does hit then it could be a fairly damaging one.

LONGER RANGE STORMS (These storms are normally shown on few models)

5 JAN - Many models show a storm, few show the storm over the UK. It is currently not expected to be a storm with a pressure under 965mb.

7 JAN - Some models show a big storm with a pressure of 945mb to hit the UK, others show no storm.

THEN there is potential for an extremely cold mid January, as shown on long range CFS models.

[Summer Sun]

UK Power Networks warns customers in SE England without electricity by midnight to make contingency plans for Christmas Day

 

The Met Office's amber warning for high winds in the Western Isles and Orkney and Shetland has been downgraded to yellow. The warning was meant to last until midnight.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Gaz1985]

 

UK Power Networks warns customers in SE England without electricity by midnight to make contingency plans for Christmas Day

 

The Met Office's amber warning for high winds in the Western Isles and Orkney and Shetland has been downgraded to yellow. The warning was meant to last until midnight.

 

 

A throw away BBQ for cooking Christmas dinner.........lol

Edited December 24, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Sussex Jules]

LONG RANGE STORMS DUE (UK)

FRIDAY - Most GEFS models show this storm heading directly over Scotland, affecting mainly the usual North Western areas, although other areas may be disrupted if these turn out to be the most accurate models. Other models, such as the one shown below, shows this low pressure system as being quite a weak one compared to Monday's Storm. If this model turns out correct then the South do not have much to worry about apart from some rain and blustery winds.

image.jpg

MONDAY - This could either be a fairly damaging (55%) storm, weak (35%) storm, damaging (9%), deadly (1%). The models are extremely mixed, some show the storm hitting at a later date, some show the storm not hitting at all, some models don't even show the storm. If it does hit then it could be a fairly damaging one.

LONGER RANGE STORMS (These storms are normally shown on few models)

5 JAN - Many models show a storm, few show the storm over the UK. It is currently not expected to be a storm with a pressure under 965mb.

7 JAN - Some models show a big storm with a pressure of 945mb to hit the UK, others show no storm.

image.jpg

THEN there is potential for an extremely cold mid January, as shown on long range CFS models.

I think to say the south doesn't have much to worry about apart from bit of rain is a bit flippant to say the least unless there is a drastic change to river levels over the next few days some people in the south could be facing a bleak New Year on top of the bleak Christmas they face tomorrow. At this present moment in time there is 1 severe flood warning, 51 flood warnings and 90 flood alerts. The ground is saturated and any further rain is going to have nowhere to go. Unfortunately I gave spoken to far too many friends today that are facing evacuation this evening.

[paul m]

A throw away BBQ for cooking Christmas dinner.........lol

How is that funny ?????

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Please don't let this storm upgrade anymore. I really feel for people who are already suffering this christmas.

Latest 18z run showing an upgrade in intensity. We do NOT want to see this thing trending any further south, otherwise it could mean big trouble.

[Mokidugway]

A short quiet spell over Christmas for us all, with luck those who's festive preparations have been spoiled by the weather ,I wish you quick resolve to your problems, and a heart felt merry Christmas ....

[Man With Beard]

What's happening in some locations down here tonight is not most peoples idea of 'fun'. It would be bad enough at any time of the year let alone on Christmas Eve.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25502730

Yes I understand the interest in extreme weather but my interest actually became fear yesterday, trees were narrowly avoiding cars, trees coming down on houses, power going off in nearby towns and with a young child I didn't fancy having no heating for christmas ... not having a damaging storm is a blessing