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Severe Atlantic Storms Over The Christmas Period #2


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
1904: Jamil

emails: I'm at Heathrow Terminal 3 waiting for a plane that should have left at 1605. We've been told that the inbound flight tried to land twice and couldn't because of high winds. It was diverted to Amsterdam to refuel.

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Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire

Its all so quiet atm paul on look north mentioned more strong winds return esp in south and east lincs hope all are staying safe

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

The thought of a Daniel Defoe type storm that winds up over a period of days and gets remembered for ages now seems quite appropriate...

We will see, Friday may be the one, don't forget, in the days these few days off in between storms might have been confused and forgotten by Alcohol as the local water in UK was poison at the time....

Even those diarist's that are lamented the most, were thoroughly topped up with grog and would crash if they could drive, shure as mustard. 

 

Sleep tight.

Probably nothing.

Edited by Rustynailer
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Posted
  • Location: North Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe gales, heavy rain and alpine climates
  • Location: North Northumberland

correct - low level though 143 (according to Wikipedia) is highest ever recorded gust at low level

 

I think sadly a lot of the Highlands AWS stations are offline at high levels due to storm damage earlier in this period so we are unlikely to have the effects recorded across the highest summits.  130 mph + easily possible above about 1000 m in my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

I did nothing of note "here" - ie my locality in Essex - just seems a wet and windy day so far

I would agree, but wind does seem to have ramped up a bit in last half hour. However, looks like worst time for this area will be 3.00am with 62mph predicted by MO.
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I do think that people are slightly exaggerating the windspeeds that the South East and then later on Scotland and Northern Ireland are going to get.

 

I know there are amber warnings in force, but I haven't seen any model suggesting 115mph or 150mph will happen.

 

That being said, the low is currently at 940mb, on track with the GFS, if not slightly deeper. It's expected to deepen by around 5-15mb from now over the next 12 hours before movig Northeast and slowly weakening.

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex

Peter Cockroft BBC London forecast, gusts upto 80mph after midnight. Not much sleep for me then! :-(

 

I'll be at work then when finished will try to get home, all those Tree's along the route are making me reconsider my way home. Assuming something hasn't hit the Car whilst I am working. Then I get to drive to Leeds in the Morning, returning on Friday when the next storm is due. Merry Christmas everyone. Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Latest satellite animation with the LP center clearly visible in top left-hand corner.

 

 

 

Huge mass of rain incoming as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

northern Ireland and the northwest of Scotland have always been forecast to have the highest winds and 150mph in the Scottish highlands is easily achievable

 

Naa,

 

150Mph anywhere other than in a valley on top of a mountain where the wind is "channeled" will not see 150mph.

I cant find any model showing anything reliably over 100mph at the moment, so 150mph is to be quite honest absurd.

 

While im not "trolling" or trying to argue, This is my point of view. If you can find a model showing this , please share.

 

Katrina for example, only reached 175mph.

This is by far nothing like it. The pressure gradient is pretty much half of what Katrina was. ( or any other hurricane force storm to be honest )

 

While, im not trying to downplay the dangers of this clearly bad storm. I dont see speeds like that being reached anywhere of note.

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk

Hiya Russ, what are the conditions like on the IOW? Not heard anything from my folks in Brading and Ventnor but I can imagine its pretty wild!

The thought of a Daniel Defoe type storm that winds up over a period of days and gets remembered for ages now seems quite appropriate...We will see, Friday may be the one, don't forget, in the days these few days off in between storms might have been confused and forgotten by Alcohol as the local water in UK was poison at the time....Even those diarist's that are lamented the most, were thoroughly topped up with grog and would crash if they could drive, shure as mustard.  Sleep tight.Probably nothing.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Naa,

 

150Mph anywhere other than in a valley on top of a mountain where the wind is "channeled" will not see 150mph.

I cant find any model showing anything reliably over 100mph at the moment, so 150mph is to be quite honest absurd.

 

While im not "trolling" or trying to argue, This is my point of view. If you can find a model showing this , please share.

 

if u read the post right 150mph was for Scottish highlands so there are hills there or have u never been to the highlands and with the pressure being progged it could very well happen as it has many times in the past

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Posted
  • Location: North Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe gales, heavy rain and alpine climates
  • Location: North Northumberland

Naa,

 

150Mph anywhere other than in a valley on top of a mountain where the wind is "channeled" will not see 150mph.

I cant find any model showing anything reliably over 100mph at the moment, so 150mph is to be quite honest absurd.

 

While im not "trolling" or trying to argue, This is my point of view. If you can find a model showing this , please share.

 

In the interest of balance/discussion, quote from MWIS:

 

Headline, Cairngorms National Park, Monadhliath

Storm to hurricane force upland winds; areas of snow.

 

 

How Windy?

South or southwesterly in the range 70 to 100, gusts 130mph.

 

Effect Of Wind?

Very difficult walking from low level upwards. Any mobility extensively tortuous on higher areas. Severe wind chill.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Gusts around 75mph have been recorded so far in the SE of England and looking at the high res model charts it pretty close to the mark. The winds will stay very strong during this evening along Southern and SE England but between 10pm tonight to about 3am on Tuesday the winds are expected to increase for these area's with 60mph gusts reaching inland parts and along the exposed coasts 75 to 85mph, I know a few days ago the Isle of Wight recorded a gust around 90mph and these charts look a lot worse than that day so something higher this time is a probability.

 

post-6686-0-49142000-1387825820_thumb.pn

 

From 4am on Tuesday onwards the strong winds will move away from England and ease down. But the storm in the Atlantic starts to move in from the West at the same time. Ireland, Wales and the Western Scottish coasts will be the first ones to feel the wind picking up as we head into early Tuesday morning. These parts can expect 60 to 75mph and the most exposed parts along the coasts of Ireland may reach over 80mph gusts,

 

post-6686-0-76658600-1387826089_thumb.pn

 

Later on in the morning and into the early afternoon for Western parts of Ireland the wind will ease but it will stay strong for the NE of Ireland. Scotland and Northern England now see the worst of the winds with 60 to 75mph gusts being widespread. Exposed coastal parts could see 80mph gusts and the Scottish Highlands around 85 or 95mph. These winds are expected to stay strong in for the next few hours then after 4pm they will start dropping,

 

post-6686-0-59203300-1387826396_thumb.pn

 

During Tuesday evening and over night into Wednesday the West and North of Scotland start to see the strong winds with gusts ranging from 60 to 70mph a little bit lower than what Southern parts have seen but it will still be strong and with a lot of the Scottish islands being exposed and some hilly, gusts in some parts could still reach over 75mph,

 

post-6686-0-40428800-1387826575_thumb.pn

 

Stay safe everyone over the Christmas holidays hope you have a good one. Pretty much all of the UK will feel the affects of this very strong and deep low pressure system.

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I do think that people are slightly exaggerating the windspeeds that the South East and then later on Scotland and Northern Ireland are going to get.

 

I know there are amber warnings in force, but I haven't seen any model suggesting 115mph or 150mph will happen.

 

That being said, the low is currently at 940mb, on track with the GFS, if not slightly deeper. It's expected to deepen by around 5-15mb from now over the next 12 hours before movig Northeast and slowly weakening.

Don't think anyone has predicted 150mph winds for the Southeast Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

if u read the post right 150mph was for Scottish highlands so there are hills there or have u never been to the highlands and with the pressure being progged it could very well happen as it has many times in the past

 

Tbh, I doubt that will even be reached there.

150mph+ (158 mph) even for 1 minute of gusts is classed as Category5 or "Super typhoon" size and power.

 

Not going to happen.

 

And please, dont just read the pressure for wind speed

Just because its 925mb, This is not the full picture and is not representative of wind speeds.

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: North Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe gales, heavy rain and alpine climates
  • Location: North Northumberland
Posted · Hidden by recklessabandon, December 23, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by recklessabandon, December 23, 2013 - No reason given

Tbh, I doubt that will even be reached there.

150mph+ even for 1 minute of gusts is classed as Category5 or "Super typhoon" size and power.

 

Not going to happen.

 

Hasn't Cairngorm already hit 170 mph + in the past. 1986 - 173 mph - I believe if memory serves me correctly.

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Hiya Russ, what are the conditions like on the IOW? Not heard anything from my folks in Brading and Ventnor but I can imagine its pretty wild! 

How you doing ourkid?

Nice breez atm...

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Hasn't Cairngorm already hit 170 mph + in the past. 1986 - 173 mph - I believe if memory serves me correctly.

Here was the set up. (Yay 3,000 posts) :)

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,windstorms
  • Location: .

Tbh, I doubt that will even be reached there.

150mph+ (158 mph) even for 1 minute of gusts is classed as Category5 or "Super typhoon" size and power.

 

Not going to happen.

 

And please, dont just read the pressure for wind speed

Just because its 925mb, This is not the full picture and is not representative of wind speeds.

Higher has already been recorded in the past so doubt no more

I have no idea what gusts will reach at altitude in Scotland so I let you two get back to it 

 

Gust speed Highest gust speed records (low-level sites) Country Speed Date Location Scotland 123 142 knots mph 13 February 1989 Fraserburgh (Aberdeenshire) Northern Ireland 108 124 knots mph 12 January 1974 Kilkeel (County Down) Wales 108 124 knots mph 28 October 1989 Rhoose (Vale of Glamorgan) England 103 118 knots mph 15 December 1979 Gwennap Head (Cornwall)

The highest gust speed from a high level site is 150 knots (173 mph) at Cairngorm Summit (1,245 metres AMSL) on 20 March 1986.

Edited by Beaufort12
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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

How you doing ourkid?

Nice breez atm...

Building up over a period of weeks to be quite impressive.

Nearish to Freshwater now, for the peace and quiet, Beradinge(!) has gone to the dogs...

Conditions squall lines and continental rain mixed with coastal wind. exelent and great with a nice Spanish red...

Building up over a period of weeks to be quite impressive.

Nearish to Freshwater now, for the peace and quiet, Beradinge(!) has gone to the dogs...

Conditions squall lines and continental rain mixed with coastal wind. exelent and great with a nice Spanish red...

That was forpinball wizard

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

Mean wind speed average 1971-2000. Can't they, with those multi-million pound super computers, update to 2010 at least?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Tbh, I doubt that will even be reached there.

150mph+ (158 mph) even for 1 minute of gusts is classed as Category5 or "Super typhoon" size and power.

 

Not going to happen.

 

And please, dont just read the pressure for wind speed

Just because its 925mb, This is not the full picture and is not representative of wind speeds.

 

I know its about more like how close the isobars are and other factors.

 

my post also wasn't about repeated gusts it was for the highest gusts and in a storm where there are widely high wind speeds there is always scope for the odd much higher gust to come out of the blue.

 

we will wait and see if I get close or not.

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Posted
  • Location: North Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe gales, heavy rain and alpine climates
  • Location: North Northumberland

Here was the set up. (Yay 3,000 posts) Posted Image

Posted Image

thats the one! 

 

to be honest, just my opinion, i am sure higher speeds will have occurred, and will occur again. I don't think the mountain weather stations are particularly favourably located to record winds funnelled through corries etc, but that is the same for anything I guess.

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