Severe Atlantic Storms Over The Christmas Period #2

[Coast]

Any convective rainfall experts know what I'm looking at (within the black rectangle) on the latest radar grab. This may need watching I imagine for potential violent gusts, hail and thunder.

 

Almost exactly as GFS has it modelled:

 

 

[alanwh]

Got to feel sorry for those in parts of Wales right now, this courtesy of BBC online.

 

1448: ITV news reports that the River Cynon in the Rhondda valleys, south Wales, has burst its banks in Aberdare. The Michael Sobell Sports Centre in Aberdare is closed and the A4059 Aberdare bypass has also closed due to flooding at a roundabout near Tesco supermarket, it reports.

Yep..Hellish Christmas those being flooded, can you imagine ?

[Wet'n'Dry]

Sferics crossing the Irish sea, we might see some embedded thunderstorms this evening >>

 

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/StormVueNG.htm

[Coast]

1433: The Met Office says the whole of the UK is now under a "be aware" yellow alert for strong winds on Friday. Warnings will be refined closer to the time, it says.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25485373

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Squall line seems to be getting longer and longer!!

 

[Polar Bear]

Appointing a CDM co-ordinator is a legal requirement on all construction sites (with over so many men/working for so long a period.....it's been a while since I did my SMSTS so I can't remember the exact numbers)

 

I'm a QS, and our company sends emails around to all site teams reminding them to secure everything on site before the Christmas break. You would think it would be common sense but the number of sites I walk past with materials stacked on scaffolds just waiting to be picked up by the wind.

wondered why our CDM chap was looking particularly busy and fraught today. Fortunately my scheme all complete now.... (transport planner - PM of transport schemes)

[Cyclonic]

This link is good for watching the squall line

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

Stay safe everyone

[Nick F]

Central pressure circa 950mb according to meteocentre analysis at 1400, nearest Buoy- the K4 Bouy NW of Ireland recording 955.1mb at 1400.

 

 

06z GFS and 00z ECMWF have 948mb and 945mb for 1500hrs respectively, so some 2-5mb drop required over an hour to get near model predicts, which seems reasonable, given central pressure shown by meteo was 954mb at 1300hrs.

 

GFS forecasts the central pressure of the low to drop to 927mb at noon Christmas Eve, so a good 20-25mb fall to go yet!

Edited December 23, 2013 by Nick F

[weather eater]

 Lewis Griffiths in Southampton

emails: Our whole street has already flooded, trees have fallen down and many roads are closed. We've put sandbags outside our door to stop water coming in. The wind has taken down at least 10-15 trees on our road.

[TonyH]

Sferics crossing the Irish sea, we might see some embedded thunderstorms this evening >> http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/StormVueNG.htm

They are on the west coast of Ireland according to netweather radar in the showery air following and they don't usually make it across Ireland.

[yozza1987]

Any convective rainfall experts know what I'm looking at (within the black rectangle) on the latest radar grab. This may need watching I imagine for potential violent gusts, hail and thunder.

 

1435GMT 231213 NW v6 radar.png

 

It's moving through quickly (60mph or so) and sits currently through parts of Gloucester, Worcester, Bristol (as already reported), Could it be a rearward sloping Ana Front?

 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/book/export/html/146

 

 

currently in worcester and the rain has just stopped, just got a breeze at the minute,  can even see a break in lower level clouds, but can see more coming from malvern way

[alexisj9]

Don't  know how big the gust are now, but they are certainly making some noise and some are quite long lived.

[pip22]

The number of flood warnings - where flooding is expected and immediate action required - have increased again, now up to 16. And there are now 154 flood alerts across the country.

[gottolovethisweather]

currently in worcester and the rain has just stopped, just got a breeze at the minute,  can even see a break in lower level clouds, but can see more coming from malvern way

 

Thanks for the report and welcome aboard netweather towers. Yes, it does seem likely that things should soon start dying down a little out towards the West and Southwest but its only temporary I believe, a fair bit of rain to come yet unfortunately.

Edited December 23, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Just saw one news report mentioning umbrellas being blown inside out LOL- seriously haha, is that all there is to talk about.

I could fart and turn a umbrella inside out.

[Nick F]

Cold front developing a squall line stretching from Devon up the Severn Valley through the W Mids and up into Nern England - the front probably occluding north of there into Scotland. Cold frontal develops a wave from the SW later this evening, slowing down the CF's progress eastwards - which will steepen the pressure gradient across the SE of England towards midnight, with probably the strongest winds likely gusting to 70-80mph along the English Channel coast 21z-03z and the wave will bring a pulse of heavier rain northeast too here before clearing in the morning:

 

 

So although the wind gusts may moderate a little, the models suggest the worst to come across the SE later this evening ahead of the wave.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Just saw one news report mentioning umbrellas being blown inside out LOL- seriously haha, is that all there is to talk about.

I could fart and turn a umbrella inside out.

 

Better get yourself on Britians Got NO Talent then....

[The PIT]

Nice n quiet here. Max gust 47mph amazing what bit of shelter does. Looking like a squall line maybe forming on the front.

[Skullzrulerz]

BREAKING NEWS Southampton Airport has closed because of high winds.

[pip22]

Breaking News

Southampton Airport has closed because of high winds. Dam you beat me to it!! grrr! lol

 

Police search for man fallen into the river Rothay in Cumbria. First casualty perhaps?

Edited December 23, 2013 by pip22

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Nasty squall line developed over Wales/South West England now on the move

 

Here at 14:05

 

 

Here at 15:05 (one hour later)

 

 

whoops, no map underneath.  Take my word for it, it's now over west midlands

Edited December 23, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Skullzrulerz]

1524: Emergency services are searching for a man who is believed to have fallen into the River Rothay at Ambleside, Cumbria, which flows towards Lake Windermere. The incident was reported by a member of the public just before 15:30 GMT.

[Eskimo]

Winds have calmed down here, awaiting that squall line though!

[big_treacle]

Very wet here and pretty windy too. It doesn't look or sound as bad as the St Judes storm was here thankfully.

[Buriedundersnow]

NASA HIGH RES MODEL has things windy in the south at first with gusts around 60-70mph but with a little period going into overnight where 80mph gusts could be possible

 

 

then after this the focus moves further north to the core of the storm with winds looking especially strong for northern Ireland for a time after this with gusts possibly reaching 100mph maybe even a bit higher

 

 

then main focus moves to Scotland and northern england with still tightly packed isobars giving windy conditions through Christmas eve and lasting into Christmas day before finally starting to ease with gusts of wind of 70-80mph for northern England and gusts of 90mph possible through the central belt and southern uplands of Scotland and higher the further north and west you go these winds will be sustained and strong and damaging for Scotland