Severe Atlantic Storms Over The Christmas Period #2

[Mokidugway]

Sting Jet forming (play animation) http://www.zamg.ac.a...nbild-animation

shure looks like it , once I slowed animation down !...

[matty40s]

Wow, Is this what its come down to? Pure speculation?

 

So, Rather than someone showing me a reliable chart that is progging  150mph+ gusts, We have resorted to "It happened before so why not again?" 

clap clap

I'm not arguing that it hasn't happened before, Im not arguing that its not possible tonight. ( I already said it might be.. )

What im arguing is that we have no evidence that this is the case other than speculation, And I can feel it in mah olde bones.

you might not have been trolling the first time but now.....

 

here's the winterhighland outlook.

Tuesday currently looks like an exceptionally severe day on the Scottish Mountains, heavy and persistent snow fall in the West will be accompanied by Violent Storm Force SW winds, likely 50 to 60 gusting 80-100mph, backing Southerly and increasing 90-100mph with gusts 120 to 140mph possible. Some model runs have even shown mean speeds at the 850hpa height which due to the depth of the low pressure will be around or below Munro Level reaching 110mph.

 

Yes, Cairngorm did record 195 at the funicular tunnel mouth, but it wasn't an active station at the time. The following few days , they spent 3 days digging to find the tunnel mouth again.

[A.J]

amazing isn't it?.....the site are doing their best to help out with the threads and give posting guidance, yet there are still some folk who disregard said guidance, either that or a few folk in here have had a few too many sherberts tonight....As Jo rightly mentioned, it's not a competition, it's a discussion on the CURRENT severe weather outbreak, and NOT who's got the biggest gusts or whatever....Believe me, the one measurement a weather station can't record is the speed of wind blowing out of some folks backsides in here tonight!

 

So please, swallow a chill pill, report your weather conditions, summaries, constructive debate etc and leave the point scoring nonsense in the kindergarden...cheers 

[Bovril]

amazing isn't it?.....the site are doing their best to help out with the threads and give posting guidance, yet there are still some folk who disregard said guidance, either that or a few folk in here have had a few too many sherberts tonight....As Jo rightly mentioned, it's not a competition, it's a discussion on the CURRENT severe weather outbreak, and NOT who's got the biggest gusts or whatever....Believe me, the one measurement a weather station can't record is the speed of wind blowing out of some folks backsides in here tonight!

 

So please, swallow a chill pill, report your weather conditions, summaries, constructive debate etc and leave the point scoring nonsense in the kindergarden...cheers 

Could you start with explaining what this developing string Jet may cause to a already nasty storm, and which area is may affect?

 

thanks!

[Cold Winter]

Interesting line of convection developing over Cornwall and a swirl of heavier rain out to sea off the coast of Devon/Cornwall. This is similar to how the London tornado of 2006 occurred as a squall line developed over Cornwall and moved northeast. One to watch perhaps! Small tornadoes aren't uncommon in set-ups like these.

 

TORRO warning: http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

Edited December 23, 2013 by Cold Winter

[Team Jo]

Read it again and tell me you don,t act like Americans .well ott

 

 

 

 

Sorry, I'm not following?

[yozza1987]

Rain has just returned in Worcester, wind is slowly starting to build up again also

[dismantled29]

[Mokidugway]

]Could you start with explaining what this developing string Jet may cause to a already nasty storm, and which area is may affect?

 

thanks!

[knightrider]

you might not have been trolling the first time but now.....

 

here's the winterhighland outlook.

Tuesday currently looks like an exceptionally severe day on the Scottish Mountains, heavy and persistent snow fall in the West will be accompanied by Violent Storm Force SW winds, likely 50 to 60 gusting 80-100mph, backing Southerly and increasing 90-100mph with gusts 120 to 140mph possible. Some model runs have even shown mean speeds at the 850hpa height which due to the depth of the low pressure will be around or below Munro Level reaching 110mph.

 

Yes, Cairngorm did record 195 at the funicular tunnel mouth, but it wasn't an active station at the time. The following few days , they spent 3 days digging to find the tunnel mouth again.

JEEZ!!!!    So glad I don't live up there, the 70-80mph gusts we are expecting later this evening is a scary enough prospect!

[A.J]

latest radar image (courtesy NetWeather.tv) showing an impressive LEWP developing in the south west approaches and extending into Cornwall & Devon. Anyone underneath it will be experiencing some lively weather, with torrential rain and very gusty winds

 

[A.J]

just to add, for those interested, there's a technical discussion thread opened earlier this evening for this severe weather event and can be found here ---------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78857-christmas-storms-technical-discussion/  with an excellent opening post from Weather09

[Vorticity0123]

The system is currently well on its way to reach its lowest pressure (about 927 hPa), which is rather impressive.

 

The structural characteristics of the system can be seen very nicely in the 850 hPa temps, as seen below:

GFS T:6h 850 hPa temps

 

What can be seen very clearly is 850 hPa temperatures of higher than 0*C circulating into the system from the subtropics, feeding the system itself. Moreover, a band of -10*C uppers is also lurking to the west of the system, also spiralling toward the center.

 

Also note the very sharp temperature gradient(big temperature differences at a very short distance) near Newfoundland (25*C in only 2000 km!), which served as a perfect breeding ground for this low pressure area. 

 

The structure of the low is also visible in the dewpoints (surface).

GFS T+18h (dewpoints 2m)

 

And finally, a very nice 3D compostion of the wind field of the low can be found here.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=2.28,50.70,1424

 

It shows very nicely that the system is being fed from 2 distinct airmasses (polar and subtropical), originating from Newfoundland and near Florida, respectively.

 

All stay safe!

 

Sources:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-7.67,51.19,818

[Methuselah]

latest radar image (courtesy NetWeather.tv) showing an impressive LEWP developing in the south west approaches and extending into Cornwall & Devon. Anyone underneath it will be experiencing some lively weather, with torrential rain and very gusty winds

 

viewimage.png

Is that a narrow line of thunderstorms, down there in the southwest?

[A.J]

not sure Pete, no sferics detected (yet) , parameters don't look exciting to be honest, but one never knows

[Dancerwithwings]

]Could you start with explaining what this developing string Jet may cause to a already nasty storm, and which area is may affect? thanks!

its a decending area of dry dense air at the cloud head of a very strong depression, decending rapidly increasing the wind at ground level , it looks like a scorpions tail hope that helps, I am crap at explaining things , check Wikipedia, cheers, !!...

[Mokidugway]

No sferics from that squall yet though,

[lupe]

Hi people,

 

My first post here as a novice,  im watching the pressure tumbling here in the north west highlands.  my thoughts are with those down south and i hope everyone stays safe! 

On december 5th i thought we were going to lose our roof, somehow my weather mast stayed up! it was the first time i was in fear and myself and the wife moved to the center room downstairs at 3.30am...the thunder and lightening with it was prophetic!  But i have been tracking this storm for around 7 days and im nervous to be honest....but the low pressure following also concerns me, it seems epic??!!

 

on the second low pressure system around new years eve the "eye" lands right on the highlands.

As a novice could someone tell me about the eye of these storms?  I know they are not like hurricanes but is that the worst area in an atlantic storm as a given rule?? or is it the mildest?

I have a feeling being where i am that its going to be a wee bitty rough up here!!!  thoughts with down south though in a big way!

 

Tris

[Bovril]

Thanks to both posters took time to explain the sting Jet. 1 question do these stay very close to the center of the storm and have a small area of effect?

With it being out to sea, if one does form would the damage be much less?

[TheToastPeople]

Its oddly calm outside at the moment with only a few small gusts of wind, been slowly receding for the past couple hours. But i just went outside and i can defiantly hear a roaring sound to the south, Very eery

[Rustynailer]

Well I am finding this evening quite exciting, its pretty windy and dramatic around here, In the North West Parts of Scotland however its about to get breezy in a special way...

From space it looks like hell, good luck old chap and welcome.

Have a good time.

 

Regards.

Well I tried to reply to a chap who had just started on the forum then but I , missed it...

Edited December 23, 2013 by Rustynailer

[khodds]

It's not calm here, it's very loud - if the squall that's over Devon/Cornwall hits here all hell will break loose

[Mokidugway]

Thanks to both posters took time to explain the sting Jet. 1 question do these stay very close to the center of the storm and have a small area of effect?With it being out to sea, if one does form would the damage be much less?

pretty much stay around the centre , damage area 50 to 100 miles across , and very damaging !!

[Nick F]

Gust of 76mph 2100hrs at Langdon Bay up on the White Cliffs of Dover, understandably the cross-channel ferries are suspended between Dover and France. Further west at 21z: 70mph at Plymouth and 71mph At Culdrose in the SW of England.

 

 

Earlier fax for 6pm showed the frontal wave heading towards the SW of Britain

 

... which is currently spreading persistent rain northeast across much of Wales and S England, highest rainfall rates across higher ground looking at current radar. This is worrying if you look at the radar accumulations for the last 12 and 24 hrs which highlight Sern Wales, SW England and parts of southern England with high totals:

 

 

Lights flickering here in the suburbs of south London and all our electricity cables are underground!

Edited December 23, 2013 by Nick F

[Richie V]

Well after pressure stablised earlier It's now on the rapid descent again 971.7

It is nearly our turn for a blasting here in yorkshire.

I'm getting inpatient now