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Severe Atlantic Storms Over The Christmas Period #2


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme weather conditions
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S

Very still here, currently 5.7c, feels colder than that

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Scilly - St Marys

Mean Speed - 41mph

Gust - 51mph

 

Rain band has now arrived - Westwood Ho - North Devon

 

Wind speeds picking up, especially south coasts

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Thanks for that Roger a really interesting post and a very Merry Christmas to you

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

M.E 5 AM update - Warning is still Orange

 

Windy and blustery today with strong and gusty south to southwest winds. Very wet this morning with spells of heavy rain, preceded by some sleet on northern hills. Some spot flooding is possible also. Top temperatures 8 to 11 C.

Tonight

Windy and showery early tonight but it will become stormy overnight with gale force southwest winds giving some severe gusts in places. The showers will be heavy and prolonged also with hail and thunder and later tonight will fall as sleet and snow in western and northern areas. Lowest temperatures of -1 to plus 2 C.

Posted Image

Tomorrow

Extremely windy and blustery tomorrow morning and stormy in places, but the winds will moderate through the afternoon and evening. Further heavy wintry showers for a time, with some sleet and snow in places. Top afternoon temperatures of 4 to 7 C.

 

 

 

Dublin forecast

 

Dublin

23 December 2013- updated at 06:00

Today 

Windy and blustery today, with strong and gusty southwesterly winds. Heavy rain at first, with some spot flooding. More showery weather will develop during this afternoon. Top temperatures 10 or 11 C.

Tonight

It will become extremely windy later tonight, with strong to gale force and very blustery southwesterly winds expected to develop. Some clear spells, but showers will develop too, some heavy, with some hail, sleet and thunder in them. Lowest temperatures of -1 to plus 1 C., with frost in places also.

Tomorrow

Extremely windy at first tomorrow, with gale force and very blustery southwest winds expected. These winds are likely to be accompanied with some severe gusts in places. There will be a lot of showers also, many heavy and some wintry and thundery, with some sleet and snow possible. The winds will moderate during the afternoon. Highs of 4 or 5 C, are expected.

 

http://www.met.ie/

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

Shipping forecast for Shannon

 

 

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0405 UTC Mon 23 Dec Wind Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, veering west severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 perhaps hurricane force 12 later. Sea State High or very high, perhaps phenomenal later.

 

PS, Low 300 miles west of Sole 984 expected north Rockall 931 by midnight tonight. 

 

So a tumble of +50mb in about 18hrs 

Edited by BurntFishTrousers
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

I'm being safe and conservative.

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

What else can you say about this? Pick a number for wind speed.

Bugger you can see the feature that will drag the south east winds up around 1 am on there, a little wave really squeezing those bars together. Please tell me that feature has been there all along. I don't need things to upgrade, was hoping to see a big downgrade.

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Posted
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey

At what point can we say that confidence of what the charts are showing really increases to a near certain level? For the moment, in SE England, we are maybe 12-14 hours from what is being forecast, however with St Jude, even only 8 hours before the storm, it was forecast a hell of a lot worse than it actually was.

 

Thanks,

 

Mal 

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Bugger you can see the feature that will drag the south east winds up around 1 am on there, a little wave really squeezing those bars together. Please tell me that feature has been there all along. I don't need things to upgrade, was hoping to see a big downgrade.

 

 

At what point can we say that confidence of what the charts are showing really increases to a near certain level? For the moment, in SE England, we are maybe 12-14 hours from what is being forecast, however with St Jude, even only 8 hours before the storm, it was forecast a hell of a lot worse than it actually was.

 

Thanks,

 

Mal 

 

To be honest with you, in complex set ups, charts are never 100% certain.. but within a 24hr the confidence level increases then 12hrs then down to 6hrs but even at 6hrs slight changes can make huge differences 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Harwich, Essex Coast
  • Location: Near Harwich, Essex Coast
Posted · Hidden by FatherOf2, December 23, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by FatherOf2, December 23, 2013 - No reason given

Shipping forecast for Shannon

 

 

PS, Low 300 miles west of Sole 984 expected north Rockall 931 by midnight tonight. 

 

So a tumble of +50mb in about 18hrs 

 

Shipping forecast for Shannon

 

 

PS, Low 300 miles west of Sole 984 expected north Rockall 931 by midnight tonight. 

 

So a tumble of +50mb in about 18hrs 

Worked so many years in a maritime operations office and before that on ships and don't remember ever seeing phenominal 

 

Shipping forecast for Shannon

 

 

PS, Low 300 miles west of Sole 984 expected north Rockall 931 by midnight tonight. 

 

So a tumble of +50mb in about 18hrs 

 

Shipping forecast for Shannon

 

 

PS, Low 300 miles west of Sole 984 expected north Rockall 931 by midnight tonight. 

 

So a tumble of +50mb in about 18hrs 

Worked so many years in a marine support operations office and before that on ships.  Don't remember ever seeing phenomenal mentioned on home shipping forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Shipping forecast for Shannon

 

 

PS, Low 300 miles west of Sole 984 expected north Rockall 931 by midnight tonight. 

 

So a tumble of +50mb in about 18hrs 

WOOOOOAAAA! 

I don't think i've ever seen a shipping forecast like that before! Certainly never seen phenomenal as a C State.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Pressure here is dropping like a stone. Was 1000 mB at 0500, now 993.5 mB!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Currently stand on top of an 800ft hill in dorset

Wind is already strong and the trees making massive noise

Clouds racing past above very deep grey but cloud base at about 1200ft.

In the distance heavy rain and a cloud base of 700ft or so very definite.

It's coming

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted · Hidden by ZONE 51, December 23, 2013 - pressed on wrong quote
Hidden by ZONE 51, December 23, 2013 - pressed on wrong quote

They will upgrade to red later today (24 hours out).The thing is they have to be very careful and as precise as possible. 

 

It's not like here where anyone can give a forecast. There are consequences to getting it horribly wrong for publicly funded met offices.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

At what point can we say that confidence of what the charts are showing really increases to a near certain level? For the moment, in SE England, we are maybe 12-14 hours from what is being forecast, however with St Jude, even only 8 hours before the storm, it was forecast a hell of a lot worse than it actually was.

 

Thanks,

 

Mal 

 

Indeed at present the low is only at 964mb - assume it is meant to strenghten

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=Europe&area=eur&size=large

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Think I got this right..

 

Perfectly illustrates how our low is forming..

 

Red arrows warm air..

 

Blue arrows cold air..

 

Posted Imagelow.jpg

Sure I've seen that picture before...

 

post-11361-0-44600500-1387788045_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Any last minute Xmas shopping? Get it done today if you can! 00z really ramping up the storm into Xmas Eve...

 

post-9615-0-74916100-1387788243_thumb.jp post-9615-0-77380400-1387788611_thumb.pn

 

Met warnings will update later this morning I expect, showing a prolonged period of severe wind speeds on my location forecast gusting 70-80mph from early Tuesday and much of Central & Northern Britain.

Edited by Liam J
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