Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd December 2013 - 2014 onwards

[Coast]

Bit of interest for south coast today on estofex.....

http://www.estofex.org

 

Already a few CU's out there over The Channel, could be interesting later:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

Already some action in the BoB:

 

 

[Coast]

Getting closer now:

 

 

The 'infamous' webcam where you might see it pass by:

 

http://www.port-aberwrach.com/index.php?LiveCam

 

 

 

[Raidan]

I have a question about a site I found,it's called SAF NWC on this site there is a thunderstorm development page that shows a satellite image with different coloured blobs on it, can anyone tell me what these are or what they mean? Cheers.

[Coast]

I have a question about a site I found,it's called SAF NWC on this site there is a thunderstorm development page that shows a satellite image with different coloured blobs on it, can anyone tell me what these are or what they mean? Cheers.

 

Do you mean here Raidan?

 

http://www.nwcsaf.org/NRT_images/ImaGIF_RDT____ORIG_RES_LOOP.html

 

Those red dots look like sferics, the light blue ones may be convective clouds - I think someone with more knowledge of the product might be better to comment

 

 

Edit: Full explanation on this page:

 

http://www.nwcsaf.org/HD/MainNS.jsp

 

 

A colored contour which defines cloud system edge. The color of this contour is related to the life-cycle stage of the system

 

yellow => triggering = warmest categories, i.e. minimum temperature > -25°C

red => growing = minimum temperature > -40°C

magenta => mature categories, i.e. minimum temperature <= -40°

orange => split cases (inherited convective diagnostic)

A line (blue in the image below) shows the trajectory of the system (all previous locations of the centre of gravity of the system in past images).

An arrow (magenta in the image below) shows the expected move of the gravity center of the system for the next hour.

 

The second step (attributes) allows to access numerical values of some characteristics of the RDT object. These values are displayed into a flying window. Its visualization is activated by moving the mouse over the contour of the corresponding cloud system (in the image below the interest cell's contour becomes green). 

The third step (historical) allows to visualize time series of past evolution of the following characteristics. The visualization of these series is interactive and is activated by simple-click inside the contour of the corresponding RDT object 

 Number of positive / negative / intracloud lightning impacts registered below or in the convective system (in this example, ATD Cloud-to-ground lightning time series associated to the green cell).

Edited January 13, 2014 by Coast

[Raidan]

That's the one Coast.

[Raidan]

I was thinking maybe the red ones are active cells and the light blue decaying cells I have know idea lol

[Coast]

That's the one Coast.

 

Edited my post as I discovered the guide to it. Nice loop running there for us - good find!!!

 

Edited January 13, 2014 by Coast

[Coast]

Here we go now, eyes down for a full house?

 

 

Tracking 1 thunderstorms

 

------------------------------------------------------- 

Thunderstorm ID C-4336 detected 13:38              

 

Storm location bearing 237.1 dgr distance 180 mi              

 

Last recorded activity      14:24              

Intensity class             Weak              

Intensity trend             No change              

 

Current strikerate          1/minute              

Peak strikerate             4/minute              

 

Total recorded strikes      50              

Cloud-Ground strikes        22 - 44.00%              

Intracloud strikes          28 - 56.00%              

 

-- Strike type distribution --              

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 10 - 20.00%              

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 12 - 24.00%              

Positive Intracloud   [+IC] 15 - 30.00%              

Negative Intracloud   [-IC] 13 - 26.00% 

 

 

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

[Sprites]

 

Here we go now, eyes down for a full house?

 

 

 

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

 

 

i used this a few times on my phone, i found Blitzortung to be very accurate 

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=12

[Sussex Jules]

Yawn not another one

[Robbie Garrett]

Lovely Fork lightning just over London right now.  Thunderstorm Number 3 so far   I am thinking all this bad weather is going to release a very nice Summer (May/June/July) time and that we are going to having a stormy one too

Edited January 13, 2014 by Robbie Garrett

[Supacell]

Lovely Fork lightning just over London right now.  Thunderstorm Number 3 so far   I am thinking all this bad weather is going to release a very nice Summer (May/June/July) time and that we are going to having a stormy one too

 

I think I need to move to London!

[The PIT]

Well the heavy showers produced 0.2mm of rain here.

[ZONE 51]

Well the heavy showers produced 0.2mm of rain here.

Do you ever get any note worthy rain?

[Coast]

ESTOFEX for today:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 15 Jan 2014 06:00 to Thu 16 Jan 2014 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 14 Jan 2014 21:42

Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

 

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

A weakening / filling trough will progress across Central Europe and the Mediterranean towards east. Behind it, a ridge will translate over Western Europe, followed by another trough amplifying over the Atlantic. Closer to the surface, dominant pressure system will be a deep, extensive low over the Atlantic with high pressure over Scandinavia and Russia. Most of Europe will be under rather dry and stable airmass, too hostile for any DMC. Two exceptions being parts of the Atlantic, where steep mid-level lapse rates advect over rather warm sea, creating marginal CAPE and another one over the Ionian Sea, in the tongue of moister low-level airmass. In both cases, marginal instability with weak vertical wind shear preclude any severe weather threat.

 

 

 

[Mapantz]

Tomorrow is looking very interesting across southern counties, some very heavy showersmwith hail & thunder mixed in.

ELT's plenty cold enough for hail production..

SBCAPE around the 300 to 600 j/kg mark and MLCAPE flirting around 400 j/kg, certainly good enough in the convective department!

Some strong PVA running along the south too, that will help pep up showers.

NMM show the possibility of some large, localised, rainfall totals.

[Coast]

I'll take the thunder + lightning with some mayo and gerkins, hold the extra rain though please......

Edited January 15, 2014 by Coast

[Mapantz]

I like take the thunder + lightning with some mayo and gerkins, hold the extra rain though please......

Aye - my January total is up to 137mm already, flood plains are still under water, rivers are mega high still and a full moon is approaching. :/

[Coast]

Liking GFS:

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I feel this year could be the year of the monster thunderstorms come summer time with Spanish plumes ETC..

 

SSTs are going to be very high this summer I feel so the channel wont be the killer this time 

[Robbie Garrett]

I feel this year could be the year of the monster thunderstorms come summer time with Spanish plumes ETC..

 

SSTs are going to be very high this summer I feel so the channel wont be the killer this time 

 

Somewhat my thinking that this Summer is the return of the monster storms.  A lot of energy in the atmosphere, lots of heat and moisture but the jetstream still throwing those killer lows towards us providing a massive bang at the end of each hot period.  Although I'd take consistent plumey weather over Block vs Low pressure. 

[Coast]

I feel this year could be the year of the monster thunderstorms come summer time with Spanish plumes ETC.. SSTs are going to be very high this summer I feel so the channel wont be the killer this time 

 

Liking those thoughts!

 

Sooner than that, look at that swathe of the country covered by the NMM TT index tomorrow:

 

[Jane Louise]

Everywhere BUT Cheltenham will get one Lol 

[Raidan]

What does that chart you posted Coast mean?