Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd December 2013 - 2014 onwards

[ZONE 51]

Took this pic of an anvil this evening, then did some work on it for monochrome/noise effect:

Edited January 3, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What a day its been for some! And most of all, 2014 has been started in style! Lets hope this is a taster of what is left to come throughout the remainder of the year  

[Convective]

This rain has turned very convective. Just had a nice hail core pass over which made a right racket with strong wind gusts and very heavy hail, setting car alarms off. 4 flashes of lightning. More on the way by the looks of the MetOffice charts.

[ZONE 51]

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/101278-03012014-travelling-low-topped-supercell-rfmi/

Interesting  

[poseidon]

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/101278-03012014-travelling-low-topped-supercell-rfmi/

Interesting  

Anybody able to map the exact track of this cell?

[Stormyking]

We too had our first load of thunder and lightning last night, i was lucky enough to catch the first load at about 5pm. However I had missed another 4 storms that night, I did hear thunder whilst at work, but couldnt watch it im afraid . had some unbelivable hailstorms yesterday as well

 

What a banging start to 2014!

[wimblettben]

We have just had some very small hail fall here and there is a dark cloud moving away to the east.

 

Looks like its clearing up towards the west.

[Supacell]

I have my eyes on this evening and overnight for some more of these unseasonable thunderstorm chances. Over the past couple of days this period has been showing up and it hasn't downgraded as we are moving closer to the time. 

 

After a day whereby rain will cross the country associated with a series of fronts and TP being pushed ahead of a huge area of LP in the mid-Atlantic there looks to be a convective set up developing with a trough shown to push east overnight across a good portion of the UK. The risk is not until later on though so still time for change, with the current period of interest being from around 18z to 03z from west to east. I am not an expert and the set-up is a complicated one, but until someone more in the know provides an insight I shall use what knowledge I have of the charts I am looking at.

 

Taking a snap-shot at midnight there is a lot of convective precipitation showing:

 

 

Although SBCAPE is nothing special there are numerous areas of enhanced CAPE showing on this chart, but of more interest to me is the 60-80knts of DLS. 

 

 

The following chart says it all in my mind, look at the supercell parameter shown here along with helicity.

 

 

 

All this translates to me as a night whereby there will definitely be numerous heavy showers, these will contain hail and will line up at times. These showers, being convective in nature, could bring the risk of some more of those strong convective gusts of up to 65knts (which translates to around 70-75mph) and a tornado risk. Infact the tornado risk overnight is quite interesting for northern England especially. 

 

   

 

No views from UKWW, UKASF or Skywarn as yet but Estofex are already on the ball with a Level 1 issued for the northern half of the UK as they go for a LEWP feature (Line Echo Wave Pattern) to develop. There forecast was issued last night but I would expect the risk area looks about right for the most likely area for severe weather.

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Supacell

[Darren Bown]

Quite surprised to see the BBC news to mention thundery showers for my neck of the woods between 6 and midnight tonight.

Fingers crossed!

[dave48]

Would agree with Supacell on this.

 

Definite risk tonight. I'm not a huge fan of winter set ups but this does look like one to watch.

 

You would think there would be a gusts risk for sure, how much lightning activity is always difficult.

[Bobby]

Strikes being detected from a heavy convective blob to the SW, heading NE.

[ZONE 51]

Hail parameter, green blob on this map for the SW

[Skullzrulerz]

Hail parameter, green blob on this map for the SW

I can see a blue blob just off south cornwall but no green blob.

[Supacell]

Would agree with Supacell on this.

 

Definite risk tonight. I'm not a huge fan of winter set ups but this does look like one to watch.

 

You would think there would be a gusts risk for sure, how much lightning activity is always difficult.

 

I normally use CAPE, lapse rates and ELT's to estimate the risk of lightning. Using these parameters I would say that lightning would not be that common overnight, although I would expect some lightning in any stronger cells as lapse rates are quite good across N England. I may not be correct with this though, surprises can be thrown up in this sort of situation. The main threat tonight though is definitely convective gusts and a possible tornado risk. Northern England definitely looks the best place for lightning.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Supacell

[Bobby]

I normally use CAPE, lapse rates and ELT's to estimate the risk of lightning. Using these parameters I would say that lightning would not be that common overnight, although I would expect some lightning in any stronger cells as lapse rates are quite good across N England. I may not be correct with this though, surprises can be thrown up in this sort of situation. The main threat tonight though is definitely convective gusts and a possible tornado risk. Northern England definitely looks the best place for lightning.

Met Office seem to think there will be thunder and hail tonight and tomorrow

 

This Evening and Tonight:Staying showery with heavy showers in places giving the risk of hail and thunder. There will be some drier spells, particularly towards dawn. Remaining windy with coastal gales. Minimum Temperature 6 °C.Monday:

 

Monday:Sunshine and blustery showers will affect the region, some heavy with hail and thunder. It will stay windy, particularly in any showers, with gales, severe over coasts and hills. Maximum Temperature 10 °C.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Bobby

[Supacell]

It looks like the risk moves up and across from Ireland into the SW, Wales and then into N England and S Scotland, these areas are at risk from severe weather. Skywarn now on-board too:

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #003
ISSUED: 1500UTC SUNDAY 5TH JANUARY 2014

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND & IOM, WALES, NORTHERN ENGLAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND
BRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND & IOM, WALES, NORTHERN ENGLAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1500UTC UNTIL 

MATURE DEEP LOW TO THE WEST SPREADING A WELL-SHEARED SPLIT COLD FRONT AND SMZ ACROSS THE UK

DISCUSSION:
THERE IS REINFORCEMENT TO MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE FROM ATD AND SATELLITE CLOUD TOP OBS TO INDICATE A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TODAY. A MATURE LOW HAS SPREAD A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UK, WITH A SPLIT COLD FRONT AND SHALLOW MOIST ZONE CURRENTLY ACROSS IRELAND. AS DETAILED BY ESTOFEX, MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE IN WHAT IS ALREADY A WELL-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD RESULT IN ORGANISED CONVECTION. BROKEN LEWP STRUCTURES AND INCISED ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE ALREADY INDICATED BY RADAR, WHICH IF REMAINING COHERENT COULD GENERATE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE COHERENT LEWP THROUGH THE MAINLAND THOUGH DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. FURTHER FOCUSSING AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN DAMGING WIND GUSTS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

www.skywarn.org.uk

Edited January 5, 2014 by Supacell

[andy989]

Hoping the thundery blob passes over me in NW Wales. Lightning hit the T.V mast a few miles from here on Friday night. Didn't witness it my self though.

[The PIT]

Well can't be happening as the Sheffield shield hasn't even twitched. It'll fizzle out before it gets over the Pennines  more likely than not.

[JK1]

Looks like my area will miss out on all the fun. I expect by the time it reaches me it will probably just be drizzle or nothing at all

Edited January 5, 2014 by JK1

[TonyH]

Torrential thundery- type showers here heralding the warm sector

[ZONE 51]

Nothing on TORRO site yet..

Edited January 5, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Chris K]

Had one yes ONE rumble of thunder about 10 minutes ago. And no it wasn't the bins!! Hope that isn't the only rumble of thunder I get in 2014...

[Liam J]

Torrential rain here atm, hoping to hear some bangs....

[TheToastPeople]

Is it just me or is this storm starting to look a bit like an MCS? The river Ouse behind my house has already burst, any more rain will not be welcome :L

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thoughts on the stuff coming out of The Bay of Biscay?