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Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd December 2013 - 2014 onwards

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
Posted

Last Update: 1130UTC Saturday 25th January 2014

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #004ISSUED: 1130UTC SATURDAY 25TH JANUARY 2014

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - WALES, NORTHERN ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA, SOUTHEAST ENGLANDBRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - WALES, NORTHERN ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA, SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1130UTC UNTIL 1800UTC SATURDAY 25TH JANUARY 2014

DEVELOPING ACTIVE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS UNDER AN ONCOMING JET NOSE, WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTING ENHANCING GUST POTENTIAL

DISCUSSION:THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR AND ATD OBS, IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER IRELAND WILL DEVELOP INTO A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LINEAR FEATURE ACROSS THE MAINLAND, POSSIBLY WITH SOME BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS LATER IN THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET, WITH DECENT FORCING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WILL PROVIDE A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOCUSSED AND ORGANISED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH LCL'S ARE LOW, LIMITED MOISTURE MAY HINDER STRONGER UPDRAFTS, BUT THE DRIER ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO AID DOWNDRAFTING WITH BREAKS ALONG THE LINE FOCUSSING THIS INTO STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WINDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG, WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVOURABLE FOR THE GENERATION OF BRIEF TORNADOES WHERE BREAKS IN THE LINEAR PATTERN OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSSED DAMAGING GUSTS EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PERHAPS MORE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH CELLS MAY BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION HERE. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

The weather is severe here!! Torrential rain mixed with hail and wind gusts exceeding 60mph. Can barely hear the TV over it.

Edited by Liam J
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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

The weather is severe here!! Torrential rain mixed with hail and wind gusts exceeding 60mph. Can barely hear the TV over it.

 

Expect snow soon. We've just had a snowy downpour! 

 

Squall line moving into north Wales already producing a few strikes out towards Anglesey. Expect that's the start of the feature Skywarn are on about! MetOffice precipitation forecast shows some a nice squall working south-eastwards over most of central England through the afternoon.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Very squally and intense hail/rain shower just passed through here. Stronger winds than any of the December storms I reckon, albeit for just 10 or 15 minutes.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Look at the radar returns coming into Cumbria - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

 

Easing off now after throwing everything & the kitchen sink coming down - rain,hail,sleet,snow!! 

Edited by Liam J
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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Expect snow soon. We've just had a snowy downpour! 

 

Squall line moving into north Wales already producing a few strikes out towards Anglesey. Expect that's the start of the feature Skywarn are on about! MetOffice precipitation forecast shows some a nice squall working south-eastwards over most of central England through the afternoon.

 

What is a snowy downpour? Not sure I've seen one of them before?

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

What is a snowy downpour? Not sure I've seen one of them before?

 

Very heavy flurry :)

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Must have been quite a shock seeing snowflakes!!

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TheToastPeople Enthusiast

TheToastPeople

Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
Posted

Radar looking interesting today! Wasn't expecting to see such convection when i woke up this morning, fingers crossed it doesn't fizzle out over the midlands. My birthday tomorrow and it is Always sunny on my birthday. But it looks like this year that is set to change!!

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Tony Gilbert on UKWW is cautious with the outlook and I would agree with this. There looks to be some good parameters in place across Southern England which would promote more organised storm activity (on GFS model) but the instability looks to be further north, thus the two areas do not appear to overlap. 

 

There does seem to be indications of a squall line type feature developing as a trough moves down from the NW this afternoon IF this can overlap with the up to 60knts of DLS across more southern parts (say Midlands and southwards) with areas such as Lincolnshire/Cambridgeshire and the SE Midlands possibly in a "sweet spot" if indeed there is one. I do not see there being much lightning activity, but there is a risk of strong convective gusts for a short while. 

 

It looks to be a weakening feature as it pushes into the SE so a low risk of a short lived convective episode for some and nothing more IMO.

He has now upgraded for a thin strip across central/SE UK - an area of enhanced lift.

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liamcymro Rookie

liamcymro

Posted
  • Location: Deiniolen, 223m, N. Wales
  • Location: Deiniolen, 223m, N. Wales
Posted

Had possibly the worst storm I've ever seen about an hour ago! Close lightning and thunder. With heavy hail here in North West Wales!

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Very tasty looking radar right now, should get to me by sunset time ish... Posted Image

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Thunder and Lightning...rain, hail and snow. Temp dropped from 9c to 2.9c in no time....most amazing squall line I've seen.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Thunder and Lightning...rain, hail and snow. Temp dropped from 9c to 2.9c in no time....most amazing squall line I've seen.

 

Same here mate....the rate of the lightning (for a squall) was something else. I've finally seen my storm so I'm happy (and out of the NSC) :D

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SalopWatcher Enthusiast

SalopWatcher

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury
Posted

Wow. Sitting top of main multi story car park in Shrewsbury and having a hell of a storm!!! Seen two close CGs really loud thunder, directly overhead...as it passed really strong winds and hail. Best storm for ages, hammering the carp we has last summer. Great start to year.. And happens to be at the best place in Shrewsbury to view it.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

He has now upgraded for a thin strip across central/SE UK - an area of enhanced lift.

 

I am happy to announce I was wrong with a line of very decent looking convection moving SE now. I have my eyes on this one Posted Image

Edited by Supacell
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

remarkable amount of strikes being detected over the NW Midlands!

 

post-4149-0-59988500-1390658801_thumb.pn

 

 

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

remarkable amount of strikes being detected over the NW Midlands!

 

Posted Imageviewimage.pbx.png

 

I am thinking this could hit me here in Derby, camera at the ready Posted Image Infact, I think I can hear distant rumbles.

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Deluxe Newbie

Deluxe

Posted
  • Location: Dronfield, South Yorkshire (S18)
  • Weather Preferences: Storms
  • Location: Dronfield, South Yorkshire (S18)
Posted

Thundering here in Dronfield, South Yorkshire. Some lovely flashes and CG's. Quite frequent as well, a few strikes per min currently, and heavy rain. Second storm in 3 days :D

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Heavy rain,hail,thunder and lightning + gusty winds passed through here in the last hour.

 

Pretty impressive radar,how will the Sheffield storm shield deal with it?Posted Image 

 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

remarkable amount of strikes being detected over the NW Midlands!

 

Posted Imageviewimage.pbx.png

 

A sferic over my house.....good lord, whatever next....snow?!

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