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CO2 Questionnaire   

31 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you believe that CO2 is a Greenhouse Gas, capable of producing a warming effect?

    • Yes
      30
    • No
      1
  2. 2. All other feedbacks excluded, what temperature increase would you expect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration alone?

    • No warming
      2
    • 0 to 0.5C
      9
    • 0.5 to 1.5C
      12
    • 1.5 to 2.5C
      6
    • >2.5C
      2
  3. 3. Including other feedbacks, what do you think the equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is?

    • No effect
      2
    • 0 to 0.5
      6
    • 0.5 to 1.5C
      6
    • 1.5 to 2.5C
      7
    • 2.5 to 3.5C
      5
    • 3.5 to 4.5C
      2
    • 4.5 to 5.5C
      2
    • 5.5 to 6.5C
      0
    • >6.5C
      1


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Surely a rise in temperature would mean less ice sheet in the Arctic and as such this would decrease the Albino effect, thereby giving the warming more impetus by increased warming of the sea and subsequently the land areas.

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Surely a rise in temperature would mean less ice sheet in the Arctic and as such this would decrease the Albino effect, thereby giving the warming more impetus by increased warming of the sea and subsequently the land areas.

Lol Mike...I couldn't resist!Posted Image

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Lol Mike...I couldn't resist!Posted Image

You too will get to my age - alright Albedo then, slip of the keyboard and mind :)

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I am a bit confused with the questions to be honest with you?

 

In question 2, shouldn't you have a list of options which run from 0->6.5 as you have for question 3?

 

I understand question 2 as meaning: if CO2 emissions doubled, what would you expect the temperature rise to be...ignoring positive and negative feedback effects that would run thru the climate system. I think this would be very high.

 

Question 3...if you take the positive and negative feedbacks into account, what temperature rise would you expect if CO2 doubled. This could be very high too, but countered by possible positive feedbacks over time... could limit the potential rise if the climate system did not have mechanism to respond ( question 2 ).

 

Question1 is quite clearly a yes from me.

 

 

 

 

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I am a bit confused with the questions to be honest with you?

 

In question 2, shouldn't you have a list of options which run from 0->6.5 as you have for question 3?

 

I understand question 2 as meaning: if CO2 emissions doubled, what would you expect the temperature rise to be...ignoring positive and negative feedback effects that would run thru the climate system. I think this would be very high.

 

Question 3...if you take the positive and negative feedbacks into account, what temperature rise would you expect if CO2 doubled. This could be very high too, but countered by possible positive feedbacks over time... could limit the potential rise if the climate system did not have mechanism to respond ( question 2 ).

 

Question1 is quite clearly a yes from me.

 

Sorry Styx. I kept the options in Q2 quite low because it is generally accepted that a doubling CO2 alone (without feedbacks) would only amount to a 1C temperature increase. It isn't something that's really debated these days.

Climate sensitivity including other feedbacks is the one with the wide range of possibilities, with the IPCC claiming the most likely range is 1.5 to 4.5C, with a few studies going much beyond those values. Large degrees of warming from CO2 requires feedbacks, such as water vapour increases, ice-albedo, increased methane, etc.

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I still struggle with quantifying the ice albedo feedback impacts? From watching the Basin since the mid noughties it appears that changes can be instant and huge? In 07' we suddenly saw 20% of the area that used to be reflecting 90% of the incoming flip to accepting over 80% of the incoming??? The near same occurred in 2012 bringing twice the 07' forcing into play? And then how do you quantify it's impacts thereafter? We have seen a 'recovery' year still accepting more heat than the last record low year? Is that a product of the changes the previous years heating brought ( allowing a much faster melt out for some regions so a much longer period under sun). And how does the albedo flip drive change on land? With temps impacted up to 1,500km inland when ice cover is lost ( and the influence of ice on surface temps) how does this facilitate further feedbacks like earlier snow loss and permafrost melt? And what of the speed of the albedo flip? We are being told that when the end comes it will come real quick and so the prospects of going from an ice covered basin in the 90's to an ice free basin in the 20 teens appears a very real prospect and that 'scale' of change is so difficult for me to quantify. They also tell us that once 'ice free' the basin will rapidly become ice free ever earlier and for longer? is this what we saw on the atlantic side of the basin this year and why such heat was able to build here? If so we are looking at vast changes in the energy budget in a near instant? The sea temp anoms from the atlantic sector were over 5c up on their old averages and that is occurring in just over a decade!

 

So we lose the 'reflection' of energy back into space in favour of a new source of energy entering the climate system. We also lose the chance to 'cool' warmer temps that move north by the same degree that we used to modify it as it travelled to the pole (loss of cooling) we also lose the cooling impact of cold air travelling south as it is now warmer at the start of it's journey ( loss of cooling)? This is such a game changer and yet so few folk appear to have concerns over the scale of this change or how close we are to seeing it occur?

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So after 25 votes it seems that 96% believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

 

The average votes for warming from CO2 alone is 1.1C (using the middle value for each category, 0 for no warming and 3C for >2.5C)

 

The average votes for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is 2.1C.

.

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So after 25 votes it seems that 96% believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

 

The average votes for warming from CO2 alone is 1.1C (using the middle value for each category, 0 for no warming and 3C for >2.5C)

 

The average votes for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is 2.1C.

.

 

I'd like to know who disputes co2 is a greenhouse gas?!? Posted Image Posted Image

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  • 3 weeks later...

BFTV

 

Thanks for the analysis above..... 

I've only just noticed it.

 

A slighlty different way of looking at the results is - 

 

1) Indeed 1 person does not believe co2 is a gg.

2) 76% of people  believe the effect is below 0.6C and 24% believe it is 2.5C..

3) 72% of people believe the total of all forcings is 1.05C and  28% think it is around 4.0C

 

Which just goes to show that anyone can prove anything by the use of the correct questions and statistics.

 

I do believe my analysis is a closer analgy of the result of the questionaire on this forum

 

MIA

 

.

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BFTV

 

Thanks for the analysis above..... 

I've only just noticed it.

 

A slighlty different way of looking at the results is - 

 

1) Indeed 1 person does not believe co2 is a gg.

2) 76% of people  believe the effect is below 0.6C and 24% believe it is 2.5C..

3) 72% of people believe the total of all forcings is 1.05C and  28% think it is around 4.0C

 

Which just goes to show that anyone can prove anything by the use of the correct questions and statistics.

 

I do believe my analysis is a closer analgy of the result of the questionaire on this forum

 

MIA

 

.

 

Hi MIA.

I wasn't trying to show anything either way, just the averages, as they can be better compared to the scientific consensus on CO2 warming alone (1.2C) and climate sensitivity (3.0C)Posted Image

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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