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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->


Nick L

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Well what kind of a week we are going to have this week regarding the models, folks. The ECM, JMA this morning are still holding on to thoughts of an Easterly and the rest are not having any of it.

My thoughts on this is that, It's messy and the models are really having problems dealing with the blocking/HP to the East and i still think there maybe a few surprises in store, Its either an Easterly or a Westerly, Which one i favor, Your guess is as good as mine Posted Image .

My final thoughts on this is, If the ECM forgets the idea later, Well we'll be back to square one! But you never know the GFS/UKMO may do a you turn later when the 12z comes out,

Certainly interesting, But it's all in the hands of Mother nature her self and we all know how quickly she can changePosted Image

 

Just looking at 06z GFS, Its showing hints towards the ECM already, The GFS is further west.... But i've always found the GFS to be too progressive, especially when there's blocking involved.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

Just looking at 06z GFS, Its showing hints towards the ECM already, The GFS is further west.... But i've always found the GFS to be too progressive, especially when there's blocking involved.

 

That has always been the perennial problem with the GFS, namely that once it latches onto a signal it tends to over-react to it before slowly backing down or even dropping the idea entirely.

 

Bish

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

That has always been the perennial problem with the GFS, namely that once it latches onto a signal it tends to over-react to it before slowly backing down or even dropping the idea entirely.

 

Bish

Sounds just like the 'Model thread'.... lol!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

No shocks weatherless Telford has had 5 spots of rain while it explodes 10 miles east :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

No shocks weatherless Telford has had 5 spots of rain while it explodes 10 miles east Posted Image

Consider yourself lucky Conor, most of us don't want more rain. Seemed to have escaped the rain so far here too.
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Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

We had about half an hour or so of heavy rain here from five o'clock onwards.

 

If it's true that temperatures are supposed to drop to below zero across the region tonight, then conditions will be absolutely treacherous in a while.

 

Currently 3.8c

 

Bish 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

I said this morning "Well what kind of a week we are going to have this week regarding the models" and "I still think there maybe a few surprises in store" For the life of me i didn't expect it so soon! The ECM is showing yet again alot of potencial for cold with an Easterly starting to set in by this weekend, But i'm not getting carried away with it just yet! Lets see what the other models throw out, A few more runs needed methinks Posted Image Starting with the GFS later, Pub run as well, Now that'll be interestingPosted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

We had about half an hour or so of heavy rain here from five o'clock onwards.

 

If it's true that temperatures are supposed to drop to below zero across the region tonight, then conditions will be absolutely treacherous in a while.

 

Currently 3.8c

 

Bish 

 

When you look at air temps like these and with the ground been so damp, Bish, How right you are! Wide spead ICE for rush hour!!!

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

I said this morning "Well what kind of a week we are going to have this week regarding the models" and "I still think there maybe a few surprises in store" For the life of me i didn't expect it so soon! The ECM is showing yet again alot of potencial for cold with an Easterly starting to set in by this weekend, But i'm not getting carried away with it just yet! Lets see what the other models throw out, A few more runs needed methinks Posted ImageStarting with the GFS later, Pub run as well, Now that'll be interestingPosted Image

 

If the GFS pub run were a person.............. 

 

Posted Image

 

Bish

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

If the GFS pub run were a person.............. 

 

Posted Image

 

Bish

A great philosopher once wrote

"Naughty naughty very naughty"

 

Or was it ......The Shamen - Ebeneezer Goode. lol!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Looks like the area of heavy rain in Wales is now turning right towards us, if it holds intensity might be wintry over higher ground maybe? maybe?? :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Models have flipped again tonight, after all the flip flopping over the past week im hoping this flip is the last flop.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Looks like the area of heavy rain in Wales is now turning right towards us, if it holds intensity might be wintry over higher ground maybe? maybe?? Posted Image

Yes, I'm hopeful for a bit  of wet snow during the early hours if it doesn't fizzle out as it moves east. The temperature is 2.4c and falling slowly.

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Yes, I'm hopeful for a bit  of wet snow during the early hours if it doesn't fizzle out as it moves east. The temperature is 2.4c and falling slowly.

Yup some reports of settling snow coming in from Wales now, heavy stuff looks like staying to far north of here for any evaporative cooling unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

It is snowing. I am not kidding! Very wet and almost sleety but it is not a snowless January!

 

Edit OMG it is actually sticking to the grass and cars I have just scraped a small snowball off the wheelie bin...

Edited by Summer of 95
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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Wow that's a first for Shrewsbury to have snow and it be raining in Telford Posted Image, precip unfortunately much to light here, a rate of about 5 spots of rain per minute.

 

Does remind me of 16th March 2013 a fair bit though just much further north, expect northern Shropshire, Staffordshire, Derbyshire etc may get a surprise dusting!

Edited by conor123
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

OMG! The busiest it been all day, Just need to mention the word, SNOW Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Wow that's a first for Shrewsbury to have snow and it be raining in Telford Posted Image, precip unfortunately much to light here, a rate of about 5 spots of rain per minute.

Was drizzle here until 15 mins ago... Expect it'll all be gone in an hour but I have made a snowball this winter.. and been told to get it out the house by the Mrs... :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

Pinkish glow to the clouds here but im nearly in the cloud.....its 1c and sleety drizzle still.... If we get anything heavier should be flakes....

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Intensifying slightly now with definite sleetiness Posted Image

 

Edit: Shield shattered, snow flakes mixing in for sure !

Edited by conor123
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Intensifying slightly now with definite sleetiness Posted Image

 

Yes it's moving your way. Judging by the radar it's only going to be a very brief thing but if there are still flakes coming down after midnight it's 2 snow days in Jan 2014!

 

Edit 00:01 and it is! Turning to more sleet now though as it passes.

Edited by Summer of 95
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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

AHHH HEAVY SNOW Posted Image

 

Edit: Turned light so back to sleet now but dropped to 1.8c from 4c 30 mins ago.

Edited by conor123
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Erm this is slightly mad...yes big flakes they are. Gonna be one very icy am start...

Not so sure about that.. almost passed from here and back to drizzle, not cold enough for frost. Was a nice surprise while it lasted though!

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