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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->


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I must say the thought of snow doesnt interest me as much it has in previous years despite my username lol. Ill look forward to it if it comes but its still some way away and a lot of folks are getting way ahead of themselves imo. This is an easterly we are talking about and could quite easily fail. Hate to put the jeepers on it but we have been here before.

 

Id much rather think about those early warm sunny days on the cornish coast. :D

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I'm not paying to much attention to the charts beyond Monday at the minute as to far out in FI, Sunday/Monday's low is the one i'm watching as although the GFS is rubbish with upper's much to mild for any wintriness the ECM is close to delivering an evaporative cooling event, fingers crossed for some upgrades!

 

In the meantime business as usual today, cloudy, dark and grim with some potentially very heavy rain for us in the NW of the region on the way later!

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I just couldn't contain myself this morning, Its just what we've endeavoured so far this season, Inwhich i don't have to mention,

when i seen the excellent cross model agreement and i mean excellent as in cold&snow, Its what we have been all waiting for Posted Image

 

But yes i won't be getting the champagne out just yet or the sledge if that matters.

 

Anyway why not be upbeat ......Fingers crossed for some upgrades! Well said' conor123Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Remember all those forecast cold snaps in Nov/early Dec that just ended up as Atlantic dross? No, not getting my hopes up yet, especially for easterlies as the continent is so mild right now. SST s in the North Sea must be above average too, which would scupper anything short of -15C uppers.

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Charts look better, but the MOD thread feels like a celebration. If the runs changed so easily over the last 24 hours, watch them do so in the next. 

 

If the cold comes into t48 and less then I'll be happy, until then I'm not so bothered. It makes the MOD thread entertaining.

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Mehhh no such luck re Sunday night's low, slightly frustrating as normally such a setup would be a wintry one but somehow the mild upper's look like blasting up with ease.

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Remember all those forecast cold snaps in Nov/early Dec that just ended up as Atlantic dross? No, not getting my hopes up yet, especially for easterlies as the continent is so mild right now. SST s in the North Sea must be above average too, which would scupper anything short of -15C uppers.

Yes your right at the north sea been above average regarding sea temps, But it can work in our favor... When you have -8 -10 850hpa and sea temps of around 8c to 9c,

Well plenty of convection making good for heavy snow showers and looking at the charts below they could be driven well inland, But we will see how thing progress.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

This convection chart ^^^ is at 192h but it does give us a general idea what potential could come of the northsea a few days later.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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I find it amazing how fast some can post a new chart in the mod thread, if they were any faster they'd be posting it before it's out..Posted Image

 

Some fantastic charts again, hopefully the detail will become a little clearer by the weekend. 

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I find it amazing how fast some can post a new chart in the mod thread, if they were any faster they'd be posting it before it's out..Posted Image

 

Some fantastic charts again, hopefully the detail will become a little clearer by the weekend.

Was looking back over the threads from march last year with all the snow last night.....the hills around glossop did pretty well....my neighbour was saying the snow drifted over the hedges here and partially blocked the road i now live on..... Was feeling very much like i wanted some winter before going to sleep....hopefully something morewintery next week.... Your posts with derbyshire council etc were very interesting...bookmarked a few pages yesterday....
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Was looking back over the threads from march last year with all the snow last night.....the hills around glossop did pretty well....my neighbour was saying the snow drifted over the hedges here and partially blocked the road i now live on..... Was feeling very much like i wanted some winter before going to sleep....hopefully something morewintery next week.... Your posts with derbyshire council etc were very interesting...bookmarked a few pages yesterday....

 

Yes some of the biggest drifts i have seen for years and years here, very unexpected... was snowed in for 5 days and drifts up to the bedroom windows. Pretty amazing and a Month i will never forget, i just wish all months were like that !

Edited by Polar Maritime
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It's a shame it'l almost definetely not happen, but tonight's ECM was probably the best run since 'that' ECM

 

We all know what happened to that ECM run! 

 

Get it down to t24 and I'll start to be excited.

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18z is exactly why i'm not getting excited whatsoever, the way this winter's gone thus far the atlantic will plow through and push that Scandi high into Russia instead.

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18z is exactly why i'm not getting excited whatsoever, the way this winter's gone thus far the atlantic will plow through and push that Scandi high into Russia instead.

not as bad as you think, potential battle ground which would produce a lot of snow somewhere and then the high possibly trying to reach Greenland at this point of the run
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I don't really care for this search of deep cold, the deepest cold tends to be very dry, at which point it becomes painful and boring. 

 

I just want it to snow for a couple of hours of 1 day, or have a period of snow showers that produce huge fluffy flakes and whiteout situations. 

 

It can be gone within a few hours. 

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Pretty average ENS this evening. Let's hope the 18z wasn't on to anything, I have a feeling there's plenty of legs left in this situation and that anyone who's already allowed themselves to be excited is probably going to require a large dose of Prozac come Friday-Saturday as things water down to a chilly but dry solution.

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Got back from footy....6-0 yey.... very funny crowd home and away... and joe cole.... west ham fan having a rant at joe cole and vice versa.... hehe... And get back to see netweather forecast giving me 40cm snow next week.... Ok its gfs and a week away....but can dream.... Happy times....

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Be prepared Mids folk, some very hefty downpours pushing through shortly..and amazingly even the wind picked up a notch after my last post... Not wild but noticeable. Almost looks like a squall line is forming.

Heavy rain and thick mist, almost fog, here. Every time I go out the door it seems to be raining now....

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Morning, not sure whether this is the right place for this, there is a good chance of seeing aurora tonight if we can find some dark skies :)

I'm off out with my flask and blanket later hoping I get lucky :)

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Outlook remains bland as ever in the reliable time zzz, I was hoping Sunday/Monday's low would of been pushed further west with each run with the block increasingly strong but instead the opposite has happened Posted Image.

 

In the meantime the sun's finally out today...

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