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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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I'd be inclined to say models are underestimating this wave, judging by those latest readings. 

 

Looks that way at present.

These wind maps are generated using GFS data and are not in "real time",for example here is the wind chart for

=24 hrs.

 

earth wind map

 

They are fantastic though.

 

Oh right, that debunks that one then!

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Its worth remember that these "live wind maps" that have become a bit of a viral hit recently are just animations of what the GFS is showing for that given time. So while it looks cool, it's not going to show anything different than from the model.

"A visualuzation of global weather conditions forecasted by supercomputers"

"Weather data : Global Forecast System"

"weather data is generated by numerical models".

Http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html

I think the UKMO fax analysis chart is a better estimation of reality vs models.

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Looks that way at present.

 

Oh right, that debunks that one then!

 

I'm hoping the link stays around long enough for when a SSW occurs.

 

earth wind map 10hpa stratosphere

 

Going the wrong way at the moment!

 

 

Nothing really showing on the latest atlantic analysis.

 

Edited by Cloud 10
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Too early to start pinning down specific detail. It's going to be very disturbed indeed, we'll have a clearer signal over the weekend. 

 looking at the 18z there's not much rain about from late on the 23rd to 25th?

 

Monday doesn't look as bad rain wise, as .john Hammond was predicting before

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Been out for an hour alarm went of at yard (wind rain ?) The charts I'm seeing now look truly horrendous , I love windstorms but I don't think I want this, especially when I go t children travelling home for Christmas as others will .....

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I am keeping a close eye on a possible upcoming storm which could perhaps be worse than this Monday's storm, one of the models already state this storm on Fri 27 Dec - Sat 28 Dec will reach a minimum pressure of 925mb, however that is only one of them.

post-17472-0-67609700-1387580579_thumb.j

Another storm to potentially look out for is on New Years Day, during firework displays, although currently the chance of this storm hitting on New Years Day would be around 25% as few models show the storm.

post-17472-0-29700700-1387580651_thumb.j

More storms are certainly possible while it stays mild in December and maybe January, but this is not good because personally I would rather see snow that wind & rain, even better, blizzards.

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Some in fact most of the ensembles are shocking!! A number would likely gives gusts to 100mph if not higher.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=84

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=78

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

Edited by Liam J
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Wow. I'd say about half of those show the low as 930mb or lower. Very worrying times ahead!

 

These charts are absolute insanity. Never seen anything like them in my 22 years of living and even on archives that go way back.

Will be devastating consequences if these hit as bad as they are looking now.

Yep, unfortunately I have to agree, completely off the scale maps. Been closely watching the models for about 15 years and can't remember seeing anything like this.....lets hope they weaken a lot over the next few runs, particularly for us in the NW. Last Wednesday was bad enough here but it would be a light breeze in comparisonPosted Image

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W COUNTRY Net result of current rain & that of next week is increasing flood risk; plus gales/severe gales all making for a disruptive spell

 

As things stand, highest (60+kts) winds by later Mon look most likely across S England from circa Dorset/E Wilts/Hants east to Sussex/SE.

 

Just saw that on twitter. Hopefully he will pop in here.

Edited by lfcdude
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Just a quick word on wave heights http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height It's a long way off, but the chart for the 27th December - +174hrNear the end of the sequence The bright yellow blob just to the west of Ireland, is off the scale !!52+ ft waves being indicated

I remember in Dec 2011 we recorded a 67ft wave off the northwest coast. That was also the last time I remember the GEFS putting out extreme storm solutions like these. The difference : they were always out in FI, not 3-4 days away...
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“A low even in the 930s [mb] would be the deepest in my lifetime,†says meteorologist Mark Vogan, a specialist on weather in the UK

Mark Vogan? He's not even a meteorologist nor a specialist, wasn't he a truck driver?

Edited by PerfectStorm
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The storm track for Monday seems to have headed further South, and has deepened slightly on some models. Anything can happen to the Storm in the coming weekend, although it looks highly likely the storm will hit the UK with some serious strength, now the main question is, how far South will the storm go?

 

post-17472-0-69834200-1387605265_thumb.p

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