Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

[Liam J]

They have I've just been on MetO's website and they've issued Yellow wind warnings for most of the exposed parts of the UK for Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning gusts of 60-70mph widely look possible with perhaps as much as 90mph in the north-west, here check for yourself > www.metoffice.gov.uk

 

I've seen the one for Mondays storm, I was referring to the potential on Saturday afternoon.  

[knightrider]

I've seen the one for Mondays storm, I was referring to the potential on Saturday afternoon.  

Oh right I see, sorry lol. Yes I think northern areas are going to feel the brunt tomorrow 80-90mph gusts?.... the south is forecast 35-40mph most of the day and the rain will take longest to clear here, as for Monday/Tuesday I don't think anywhere is immune from the exceptionally strong winds.

[Gael_Force]

The hi-res NMM model also develops a very intense wave running through N England. See my previous post. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/page-4#entry2867005

 

Is the NMM run using the GFS starting conditions, might explain the similarity - the divergence seems to be between the Euro based output and the US ones. Must be a slight difference in the initiating synoptics which has a big impact on subsequent phasing.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GEM has the low too.

 

It's quite well supported in the GEFS ensembles so we'll have to wait and see.

[Nick F]

Odd that UKMO GM and its higer res E4 model hasn't picked up the deepening wave low tomorrow PM. GFS, NAE and ECM have it. 00Z ECM had it further south and deepening a little later:

 

 

Monday/Tuesday's low looks concerning - particularly on the ECM earlier today with 929mb at 06z Tuesday NW of Scotland.

 

06z GFS some 15mb shallower and faster with the track, but still gives widespread gusts of 60-70mph with cold front passage ahead of the low, then 70-80mph gusts or more across far NW of Britain as low nears Mon evening. Similar to the low the other day, but with perhaps stronger winds.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Nick F

[VillagePlank]

Does anyone know what UK low pressure record is?

 

 

(and that chart is the ensemble mean!)

 

EDIT: Here, http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/48934-the-lowest-pressure-reading-recorded-in-the-uk/

Edited December 20, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Skullzrulerz]

Does anyone know what UK low pressure record is?

 

low.gif

 

(and that chart is the ensemble mean!)

6 Jan 1884 - Pressure fell to 926.5 millibars in Perthshire.

[Summer Sun]

The map below shows the areas currently under a yellow warning on Monday and Tuesday

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-4.53,53.02,1216

 

Look at the energy that monster is sucking up! The whole North Atlantic!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Holy *bleep* - you like this new widget then

That is worrying though and it's erm, hardly going to lose intensity as it trundles further eastwards!

 

I am finding it helpful very cool tool as it helps to really nail where the center of a low is and compare it to the model runs, also it helps to show and learn how low pressure systems develop the strongest winds.. 

[Coast]

The map below shows the areas currently under a yellow warning on Monday and Tuesday

 

 

It's easier to highlight the areas not likely to be affected!

[ancientsolar]

How often does that widget update?

[Skullzrulerz]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-4.53,53.02,1216

 

Look at the energy that monster is sucking up! The whole North Atlantic!

And its heading to the uk. :O RUN!!!! >

[NO LONGER POSTING]

How often does that widget update?

 

Every time I hit F5 it changes so not really sure??

[Skullzrulerz]

The windiest part of the uk is cornwall right now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

"It's goona be a bompy rideee"

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpP5DLjjaFM

 

Sums up the our weather over the next week.. 

The windiest part of the uk is cornwall right now.

 

Actually West Ireland on the coast  

[Mapantz]

A positively minging walk back from the pub for me tonight!

 

 

[Coast]

[Eero Hermann]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-23.09,50.40,1024

[Skullzrulerz]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-23.09,50.40,1024

So looks like i have to load it now not refresh it.And boy looks big.

[Eero Hermann]

21.12.2013 arrives tomorrow

[Beaufort12]

"It's goona be a bompy rideee" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpP5DLjjaFM Sums up the our weather over the next week..  Actually West Ireland on the coast

Fyi west of Ireland isn't Uk lol so he was right

[alexisj9]

Yeah so my parents and brother are flying Dublin to Southend tomorrow and back on Monday... http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/dublin err maybe they're not!

My mum is due to catch a train from london to here on tuesday, what do you recon the chance might be that services may be running later in the day, I think it's safe to say there will be some disruption in the morning.

[Sussex Jules]

My mum is due to catch a train from london to here on tuesday, what do you recon the chance might be that services may be running later in the day, I think it's safe to say there will be some disruption in the morning.

Interesting point if it hits as predicted I would expect disruption but then as it's Christmas Eve the pressure will be on to get trains running as quickly as possible as some services stop running earlier than they usually do. Wouldn't like to be forecaster or working for transport companies Monday making decisions.

[Eero Hermann]

estonia  lus wish: " Merry Christmas " without any way of not necessarily hold true . The Atlantic is a municipality and then a cyclone is coming up more and more acute . Explosive energy background is hidden from warm ocean waters. 40 -s põhjalaiuste present water temperature reaches to 18 ° C , respectively. Strong currents west veteväljade draws air mass moving over a number of days of warmth and absorb moisture. Second, the party has infiltrated the American east coast of cold, arctic areas that have increasingly gained supplement . Once the cold trying to conquer southern areas , once the warm northward to invade . Two stiff rivalry in the near future of peace " house " does not .

The ocean is running like clockwork - every day can be completed in a vortex , and it hastens to the new facility.

 

Over the weekend, the track of cyclones passing over Scandinavia and Finland , and the warm rain falling mostly in the southern edge of the throws . If among the places to be , it will not let plusskraadid white layer left behind. Watery snow helps to nullify the strong south-westerly wind . In particular, windy Sunday evening , and on the night of Monday.

Lõõtsuva southwest winds will continue Thursday . The air temperature still remains above 0 ° C.

Christmas Eve the weather does not change his mind . On the plus warmer and more humid air. Tightening clouds can be a little drizzle of rain . Whistle a very strong south wind . Thermometer remain on the positive side .

The first and second Christmas Day , the weather is still mild . However, the eastern kõrgrõhuala should prevent thicker clouds and rain from reaching over the Baltic Sea will be reduced. The air temperature at night can drop to 0 ° C surroundings , but the day is a couple of degrees .

 

So come Christmas time the black earth. But that should not diminish the joy of Christmas . Today 's passed the time when the sleighs drove , drove Reed ... On this day, the line of cars passing the land back to the roots . Snow -free roads encourage safe driving. But hurry , however, do not charge too much , because the uniformly dark gray around the time admonishes caution.