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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    24th looks worse for us on the 18z. Gusts of 60-65mph from about 1 to 8pm.

     

    Seriously Nick?  Well I know we up here are kinda used to those wind speeds relativity speaking but would that not warrant a yellow warning?  Suppose we just need to wait and see how hard this blows tomorrow Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Can someone more knowledgeable please answer what kind of wind speeds are projected for the NE of England - I know this is an IMBY request and sorry for the question but, there are numerous sites which have the NE (and other areas) affected by severe gales - but the Meto are having none of it. Realistically speaking are we just looking at a normal winter storm here or something more?

    Looks like the strongest winds will be with you during daylight hours on Xmas Eve; 50mph+ gusts possible, but not looking like the same intensity as South coasts tomorrow or North West UK on Tues.
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    Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

     

    The Braer Storm of January 1993 is the most intense extratropical cyclone on record for the northern Atlantic ocean. Developing as a weak frontal wave on January 8, 1993, the system moved rapidly northeast, developing at a moderate pace. The combination of the absorption of a second low-pressure area to its southeast, a stronger than normal sea surface temperature differential along its path, and the presence of a strong jet stream aloft led to a rapid strengthening of the storm, with its central pressure falling to an estimated 914.0 mb (26.99 inHg) on January 10. Its strength was well predicted by forecasters in the United Kingdom, and warnings were issued before the low initially developed.

     

    http://www.landforms.eu/shetland/braer%20storm.htm

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    They won't put up weather warnings up because were used to it. Were been battered by more storms than the south recently. It makes sense they put up the warnings only for the softie southerners.

    you're probably right , been gusting to 50 mph today when showers come through !!..
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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    And for all you in NE/NW England (always wondering how the winds will affect you), then on this run your question is answered! Ouch!

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

    Two insanely deep areas of low pressure coming up, batten down the hatches and stay safe everyone. These ain't your regular wheelie bin topplers! 

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    The Braer Storm of January 1993 is the most intense extratropical cyclone on record for the northern Atlantic ocean. Developing as a weak frontal wave on January 8, 1993, the system moved rapidly northeast, developing at a moderate pace. The combination of the absorption of a second low-pressure area to its southeast, a stronger than normal sea surface temperature differential along its path, and the presence of a strong jet stream aloft led to a rapid strengthening of the storm, with its central pressure falling to an estimated 914.0 mb (26.99 inHg) on January 10. Its strength was well predicted by forecasters in the United Kingdom, and warnings were issued before the low initially developed.

     

    http://www.landforms.eu/shetland/braer%20storm.htm

    Yes, it's also the only time in memory the Shipping Forecast famously announced "Hurricane Force 12 or more" for a few sea areas. Quite what is "more" I dunno :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    And for all you in NE/NW England (always wondering how the winds will affect you), then on this run your question is answered! Ouch!

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Are the strongest winds not on the southern flank of the system though?

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Jeez, the storm on 27th sees Ireland joining up with the Hebrides at this rate (if 18z comes true!)

     

    Posted Image

    What's it's most likely predicted track at this stage?.. Looks like the centre is quite far south compared with tomorrows low, would remain there meaning southern areas take the brunt or is it predicted to swing north?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    9am Xmas Eve and much of Central & Northern Britain & Ireland being blasted with gales or severe gales.

     

    post-9615-0-78493500-1387750354_thumb.gi 9am

    post-9615-0-32117400-1387750476_thumb.gi Midday (central Lowlands/Borders ouch)

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    The 18z GFS tends to show very intense Low Pressures; been lots of crazy UK-destroying runs from it recently. Thankfully, it tends to overdo them. It's not known as the pub run for nothing! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire)
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire)

    9am Xmas Eve and much of Central & Northern Britain & Ireland being blasted with gales or severe gales.

     

    Posted Imagenaex12.gif

    but no warnings been shown from the Met :S

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Scotland and northern England taking another pasting on the 28th light breeze in the south

     

    post-18233-0-91962300-1387750521_thumb.p

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    Seriously Nick?  Well I know we up here are kinda used to those wind speeds relativity speaking but would that not warrant a yellow warning?  Suppose we just need to wait and see how hard this blows tomorrow Posted Image

    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/42-289UK.GIF?21-6

    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/45-289UK.GIF?21-6

    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/48-289UK.GIF?21-6

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: snow, blizzards, thunder snow, thunder and lightning, heat waves, tornadoes
  • Location: Chelmsford

    Wow

     

    Posted Image

    That's an epic chart!

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    Are the strongest winds not on the southern flank of the system though?

    They are (rule of thumb 200-300 miles south of the low) so as it drifts north, you get a pin head over the Hebrides, ironically, with the winds greatest over Northern England.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Scotland and northern England taking another pasting on the 28th light breeze in the south

     

    Posted Imagegfs-0-132.png

    985mb in the south, not quite sure we'll be having a light breeze even here we could get 40-50mph easily but I suppose relatively speaking to what looks like 80mph+ again in your neck of the woods then yes lol. I think that low is predicted to hit us hard on the 27th though unless I'm wrong or this is a completely separate low to the 1 the day before?...

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Wow

     

    Posted Image

    Violent...

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    They are (rule of thumb 200-300 miles south of the low) so as it drifts north, you get a pin head over the Hebrides, ironically, with the winds greatest over Northern England.

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Cheers BFT - one to watch!

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    Thinking the 18z "pub" run had one too many at the Xmas party...Posted Image

    Edited by BurntFishTrousers
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    A closer look at the 27th... A picture speaks a 1000 words.

     

    post-9615-0-00329600-1387751112_thumb.pn

     

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