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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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Posted

It was friendly in here, now it's turning into Christmas Day Posted Image

Just use the ignore button. Then review it after several months. If you missed there input take em off the list otherwise leave em on it.

Anyway apparently we got to watch for this from Tomasz Schafernaker

post-2404-0-92611800-1387742906_thumb.jp

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Just use the ignore button. Then review it after several months. If you missed there input take em off the list otherwise leave em on it.

Anyway apparently we got to watch for this from Tomasz Schafernaker

The latest Doodlenaker lolpost-15503-0-77267900-1387743360_thumb.j

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Bluebreezer54 Seasoned

Bluebreezer54

Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
Posted

If there ever was a warning issued for armchair critics....Posted Image

Some earlier pointers, odd hint, just go ignored...obviously we have more experts in our midst! Not picking anyone out in particular no no no..

 

Me neither TxPosted Image

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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted

I don't understand why people are comparing St Jude with a storm that hasn't even happened yet? Like with most deep lows that are prone to change within very short timeframes nowcasting is the most reliable thing to do to see how bad it is. Regardless of which ends up being worse, it will likely be a notable storm for a lot of people, we will probably have a more accurate representation of the events this time tomorrow.

 

All that being said, stay safe all on your travels. Better to be safe than sorry in cases like this. Posted Image

You're correct about the possibility of very short term adjustments to the track/speeds but I still maintain that St Jude is a good recent reference point to the potential strength of the winds, so that people can get a handle of what it MIGHT be like.
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Love Snow Experienced

Love Snow

Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
Posted

Can someone explain why Yorkshire isn't under a wind warning because some sites show 60 plus wind gusts ?

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Cold Winter Aficionado

Cold Winter

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted

Very stormy period of weather coming up, initially for the far south of England and then Scotland/Northern Ireland.

 

Still considerable run-to-run variation in the exact low centre at a given point in time which could make all the difference regarding how far inland the strongest winds are felt (especially across Scotland). Either way it looks like there will be travel disruption at a time when it causes the most problems.

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rossco89 Explorer

rossco89

Posted
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
Posted

Very stormy period of weather coming up, initially for the far south of England and then Scotland/Northern Ireland.

 

Still considerable run-to-run variation in the exact low centre at a given point in time which could make all the difference regarding how far inland the strongest winds are felt (especially across Scotland). Either way it looks like there will be travel disruption at a time when it causes the most problems.

Initially? its been blowing a gale for the past three weeks up here! lol

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Cold Winter Aficionado

Cold Winter

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted

Rain could be a big problem with river levels already high across Wales/SW England in particular.

 

EURO4 model expects heaviest rain across South Wales:

Posted Image

 

NAE in agreement:

Posted Image

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Cold Winter Aficionado

Cold Winter

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted

Initially? its been blowing a gale for the past three weeks up here! lol

 

Ha yes - been quite a rough time for you guys up there and doesn't look like improving much through the next week. I would definitely stay indoors with a stiff drink if I were you!

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

St Jude at her peak filmed by someone in Romford just a few miles from me, remember gusts here are in the 50-60mph range we are expecting something similar tomorrow according to the Met Office maybe even something a bit stronger 65-70mph can't be ruled out and 80mph+ on the coast, it's going to get wild folks Posted Image http://youtu.be/N8EJ2bwjFDA

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Bit worrying seeing 925mb winds so strong across Sern England just ahead/along cold front surging east/southeast tomorrow PM. 75knts (86mph) +. Likely squall line convection near front could easily bring these low-level jet winds to the surface in gusts, bringing the prospect of some dangerous damaging gusts even inland:

 

post-1052-0-80094700-1387746018_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-07980800-1387746043_thumb.pn

 

Convective gusts:

 

post-1052-0-12454600-1387745996_thumb.pn

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Bit worrying seeing 925mb winds so strong across Sern England just ahead/along cold front surging east/southeast tomorrow PM. 75knts (86mph) +. Likely squall line convection near front could easily bring these low-level jet winds to the surface in gusts, bringing the prospect of some dangerous damaging gusts even inland:

 

Posted ImageRtavn2413.pngPosted ImageRtavn3013.png

 

Convective gusts:

 

Posted Imagegfs_gusts_eur24.png

If that happens then all I can say is god help us lol Posted Image Posted Image

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BurntFishTrousers Seasoned

BurntFishTrousers

Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
Posted

Rain could be a big problem with river levels already high across Wales/SW England in particular.

 

EURO4 model expects heaviest rain across South Wales:

Posted Image

 

NAE in agreement:

Posted Image

Means you can use your own reservoirs for a change instead of having water imported from other sources Posted Image

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

From looking at the met office charts and warnings it does appear that my area will miss most of the winds with the first set of damaging winds being in the SE tomorrow and then the second set being across Scotland, NI and NW England on Xmas Eve.

Edited by Supacell
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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted

What's with the over-fascination with St Jude's storm? Shouldn't people be comparing this system to the Braer storm?

St Jude was the most notable storm in recent memory for my area at least, although I appreciate that it was very limited in the area it hit. The gusts during St Jude were very similar to what is being progged for tomorrow.
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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

What's with the over-fascination with St Jude's storm?

 

Shouldn't people be comparing this system to the Braer storm?

There are similarities yes but didn't the Braer storm only effect Scotland and northern England, I don't know as I was too young to remember but that's how it appeared on the YouTube clip of I saw of the forecast for it.

St Jude was the most notable storm in recent memory for my area at least, although I appreciate that it was very limited in the area it hit. The gusts during St Jude were very similar to what is being progged for tomorrow.

I'd suggest worse for the Greater London area.

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jamesbhx Explorer

jamesbhx

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, W. Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Fog, Drizzle, Rain, Wind and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Horsham, W. Sussex
Posted

Bit worrying seeing 925mb winds so strong across Sern England just ahead/along cold front surging east/southeast tomorrow PM. 75knts (86mph) +. Likely squall line convection near front could easily bring these low-level jet winds to the surface in gusts, bringing the prospect of some dangerous damaging gusts even inland:

 

Yes this ties in with the conversations we've had at work today with the MetO. The feeling in aviation terms is 50-60Kts should be experienced quite widely along the south coast (Can't speak for other areas I'm afraid) with a chance of 60-70Kts in more exposed places. That was based on this mornings data but as I was on the early shift I havn't seen the updated info yet. Certainly the forecast gusts for Gatwick tomorrow are 45kts and Stansted 50kts but both are pretty well inland.

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BurntFishTrousers Seasoned

BurntFishTrousers

Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
Posted
There are similarities yes but didn't the Braer storm only effect Scotland and northern England,

 

So that's ok then...?

 

Meanwhile, this latest sat pic shows the cold air filtering down from Greenland /Iceland very well, meeting warmer than usual air north of the Azores. Just where the bulkhead of this storm will form rapidly. So really nobody yet knows how this will pan out until it starts to deepen. Bear in mind the jet-stream is almost 300mph too, so all combined it's a damn messy picture (and probably a nightmare for weather pros to put a finger on)

 

Posted Image

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Chris Fawkes forecast on the BBC weather website is quite interesting saying that his never seen such a powerful Atlantic Jetstream and that a drop of 20mb in 24 hours is considered in Meteorological terms as a bomb, well if that's the case surely the 50mb drop in 24 hours which he stated this system will drop by isn't just a bomb but a nuclear bomb lol Posted Image

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BurntFishTrousers Seasoned

BurntFishTrousers

Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
Posted

Surely the burns day storm would be best comparison, as it was probably the worst storm in the last 30 years or so !!...

probably, but I meant regarding deepness, ie circa 920mb is comparable with the Braer storm :)

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