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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    I'm sorry I didn't realise this thread had been renamed St.Jude

    Only because the media seem intent in banging on about it, why can't they just drop it?...they overhyped it but now won't admit it and back down, hardly Typhoon Haiyan was it?...pmsl

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    926mb on the WRF

    post-15177-0-36717400-1387740285_thumb.p

    Any guesses on the final value?:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Remember that the trees were in pretty much full leaf for the St Jude's storm. That makes a big difference in terms of how damaging a storm is, even if the winds are stronger.

    Only on trees lol, doesn't make a blind bit of difference to roof tiles, windows, high sided vehicles, sea wall defences etc....

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    wind warnings seem to be yellow on the metoffice website at the moment - Jude even though hit at night was amber even 3-4 days out wasn't it ?

    Thats because of the 'potential'Jude had to bomb,gusts of over 100mph seemed likely.As it panned out they ended up over Scandanavia.We dont have potential 100mph winds anywhere from this system,hence no amber warnings for wind. Edited by sunnijim
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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    well - the MetOffice team interpreting the models have a whole host more experience that most on here

     

    and access to all the high resolution models some of which aren't available to the public

     

    so they've obviously done it for a reason

     

    would you not think that on one of the most popular days for travelling before Christmas, and at rush-hour (except for perhaps Christmas Eve) - that they wouldn't have bumped to Amber by now if that had any doubts ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    Only on trees lol, doesn't make a blind bit of difference to roof tiles, windows, high sided vehicles, sea wall defences etc....

     

    Trees tend to do a lot of the damage in storms, either falling on cars, people, and buildings, or blocking roads and railway lines. 

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    926mb on the WRF

    Posted Imageindex.png

    Any guesses on the final value?Posted Image

    Just out of interest what was the central pressure reading for St Jude?  That might give us a better idea of the scale of the storm we are dealing with.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    St Jude was so overhyped especially when they tried to compare it to 1987 that was just embarrassing media sensationalism, a 50mph squall lasting not even an hour hardly constituted all the major storm headlines and I have a feeling this storm could turn out significantly worse (more powerful) as well as longer lasting.

     

    It very much depended where you were. We recorded a gust of 78mph here. The road out of my village had 8 trees down. The local Golf Club is still clearing up after having over 40 large trees down and dozens of smaller ones. It was the most damaging period of winds we have had here in 20 years. Just because you didn't see the strongest of the winds doesn't mean it was the same everywhere else!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland

    NOAA pushing out 78mph sustained winds for the Hebrides and western Scotland on Tuesday but no amber warnings as yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Incoming..

     

    The power of mother nature at work...

     

    post-12648-0-40828500-1387740803_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Thats because of the 'potential'Jude had to bomb,gusts of over 100mph seemed likely.As it panned out they ended up over Scandanavia.We dont have potential 100mph wins anywhere from this system,hence no amber warnings for wind.

    Not forecast potential but I wouldn't be too surprised if 100mph+ is achieved somewhere on the west coast of Scotland, Northern Ireland especially at high altitude.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Peter Gibbs busy at the old met office saying it's manic. Going to be a lot of tired people by the end of tonight's shift.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Here is a summary of the warnings for each region

     

    As of 19:33 the following areas have no warnings at all

     

    North West England

    North East England

    Yorkshire & Humber

     

    The following areas have a yellow warning for snow on Monday

     

    Highlands & Eilean Siar

    Grampian

    Strathclyde

    Central, Tayside & Fife

     

    The following areas have a yellow warning for rain on Monday

     

    West Midlands

    East Midlands

    SW Scotland, Lothian Borders

     

    The following areas have an amber warning for heavy rain on Monday and into Tuesday

     

    Wales

    East of England

    South West England

    London & South East England

     

    The following areas have a yellow warning for strong winds on Monday and into Tuesday

     

    Wales

    West Midlands

    East of England

    South West England

    London & South East England

     

    The following areas have a yellow warning for strong winds on Tuesday

     

    Orkney & Shetland

    Highlands & Eilean Siar

    Grampian

    Strathclyde

    Central, Tayside & Fife

    SW Scotland,

    Lothian Borders

    Northern Ireland

    Wales

    West Midlands

    East of England

    South West England

    London & South East England

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Just out of interest what was the central pressure reading for St Jude?  That might give us a better idea of the scale of the storm we are dealing with.

    967mb but it peaked as it exited the UK.
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Many people lost their homes on this coastline during st judes, and I mean lost them, they fell into the sea.

    That was December 5th 2013 around 3 weeks ago? Correct me if I'm wrong?

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Many people lost their homes on this coastline during st judes, and I mean lost them, they fell into the sea.

    They would do, my nan when she was alive who lived down on the south coast said she witnessed that sort of thing happening yearly almost every time there was a remotely significant gale so as much as it's sad that isn't exactly unusual or exceptional, seaside properties are always open to the elements!

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    Not forecast potential but I wouldn't be too surprised if 100mph+ is achieved somewhere on the west coast of Scotland, Northern Ireland especially at high altitude.

    maybe up a mountain or a sheep filled far flung Northern isle ;-) we cant expect the ukmo to issue an amber warning on that basis surely!
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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    maybe up a mountain or a sheep filled far flung Northern isle ;-) we cant expect the ukmo to issue an amber warning on that basis surely!

    MetO need to issue an amber warning if there is a realistic chance of 80mph+ winds in low lying populated areas which has been forecast for the North West of Scotland and Ireland where 90mph has even been hinted. If winds where predicted to be any stronger then that then a Red warning would need to be issued.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    I'm sorry I didn't realise this thread had been renamed St.Jude

    I think it's a very valid reference point considering the potential strength of the wind tomorrow. We can't have separate threads for everything; I already have too many tabs open as it is! :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

    70mph inland gusts - thats probably an event that happens every couple of years ? if not once a year ? so nothing particularly special

     

     

     

    In some locations possibly so.

     

    I think what makes this event worthy of a mention is the fact it will coincide with the peak pre-Christmas travel period as folk move around the country to join friends and family for Christmas. It makes sense to make folk aware of the situation in a calm and informed manner. It's a shame then that some of the posts here are anything but.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    930mb and winds only for a yellow? I'd have thought at such low pressure 100+mph would surely not be out of the question for exposed parts. Perhaps its me or it may be a little underestimated?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Lets keep it friendly in here folks! Think before you hit the enter button. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    967mb but it peaked as it exited the UK.

    Quite over Denmark and other east European areas winds of 100mph+ where reported but St'Jude didn't get her act together soon enough to have maximum effect on the UK mainland.

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