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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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A snippet from Liam Dutton's latest blog:

 

What about this Christmas? The weather in the run-up to Christmas day is going to be very unsettled, with a fast-moving jet stream catapulting low pressure after low pressure towards the UK. This means that as well as heavy rain, there’ll be gales or severe gales at times, which may cause some disruption to travel – worth bearing in mind when making travel plans.

 

With the weather so unsettled, it is hard to make a call on the weather for Christmas day this year, because the presence of any colder air will depend on the exact paths of low pressure systems, for which there is a high level of uncertainty. Therefore, I think that for most of us a white Christmas is unlikely, with rain more likely than snow. However, I do think that there is a chance of some wintry showers for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England on Christmas day – especially over the hills. So, I’ll go for a low (30 per cent) chance that a flake of snow will fall at Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh or Belfast.

 

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Running through the Ensembles and I'd say just about everyone no matter where you are in the UK is going to experience some very windy days on the run up to and beyond XMas.

 

I'd also say there is growing support for the South Coast to cop it at some point weither just before, on or just after the big day itself. ..just looking at the first 5 runs let alone the other 15...ALL of them have the Southern half of the UK under some very high winds either just before on or just after XMas.

 

Yep, almost all the ensembles show a variation of the same theme : at lease one, perhaps multiple low pressure systems over Christmas, some showing some very severe solutions. And when looking at those charts, it's worth remembering the "St Judes"  storm for comparison :

 

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Now take a look at those ensembles again!

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WARNING! 12.19.2013 at 16:10 (Ireland), another orange alert level: Strong and Gusty south to southwest winds will Develop During the Friday, reaching speeds of Mean Between 65 and 80 km per hour, gusting up to 110 to 130 km per hour. Winds will be strongest at the Coasts. "

 

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Yep, almost all the ensembles show a variation of the same theme : at lease one, perhaps multiple low pressure systems over Christmas, some showing some very severe solutions. And when looking at those charts, it's worth remembering the "St Judes"  storm for comparison :

 

Posted Image

 

Now take a look at those ensembles again!

Yep they mostly look to be considerably stronger and longer lasting then St Jude was!
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All three main models show a deep low Christmas Eve into Christmas day.

 

GFS makes it slightly deeper than the other models, at 935mb, but also has it slightly further north.

 

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ECM has it at 940mb and slightly further south than the GFS.

 

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UKMO has it in same position as the ECM, but slightly weaker at this stage.

 

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Only 120 hours to go, and with the three main models all acknowledging the potential for a deep area of low pressure, it's looking more likely.

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1997 christmas eve storm was really strong..... Lived in isle of man then..... Remember windows bowing inwards at my grandads in ballaugh....lights went out and we lit candles....driving home took 2 hours due to so many trees down.... Seemed very festive with all the lit candles....but was a pretty strong storm.... Think iom recorded gusts of 120 mph....

Edited by WillinGlossop
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1997 christmas eve storm was really strong..... Lived in isle of man then..... Remember windows bowing inwards at my grandads in ballaugh....lights went out and we lit candles....driving home took 2 hours due to so many trees down.... Seemed very festive with all the lit candles....but was a pretty strong storm.... Think iom recorded gusts of 120 mph....

Yes this was a really interesting low. The actual historic charts don't show it too impressive, but what must of happened was a rapid development over Ireland and sting jet formation during the peak development phase.

 

This is why systems tracking directly over us rather than already developed system moving towards us are always the most dangerous.

 

You want to have the storm rapidly intensifying as it moves over your location rather than a mega low already past its extreme deepening phase.

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It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas will be dull and grey as forecasters warn of more wet and windy weather next week. Despite the bleak forecast, bookies were yesterday hopeful, cutting the odds of a white Christmas in London from 10/1 to 7/1. Scotland is favourite for snowfall on the 25th, with William Hill offering 3/1 for Edinburgh and Glasgow.
 
And Met Office forecaster Nicola Maxey said there was a chance that heavy rain on Christmas Eve could fall as snow in the north-west. She said: “Christmas Eve looks very wet but with temperatures falling there is a possibility of snow falling in some areas. “The view in the north-west is allowing for snow at lower levels, so not just for the high levels. “But it depends on the timing of when the weather bands fall and the further away you are the more difficult it is to predict. “We are currently seeing milder temperatures, we will get some cold weather creeping in but that is likely to be short lived. "It’s all going to be a little up and down, with odd cold patches here and there, but in general the Christmas period should remain quite mild.â€
 
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The pressure chart for Monday / Tuesdays storm has changed alot in its location from last nights TV forecast when it appeared to cross the Midlands meaning a lot of the strongest winds where in the south but the forecast I saw just now shows it shifting to the north of Scotland #Confused lol

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Latest fax chart for Christmas eve and surprise, surprise, another low over Scotland:

 

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I suspect it is the trough/low shown at 20 west that will be of increasing interest to the cold mob on here!

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We could serious trouble potential focus, this little guy would cause damage

 

And if it looks that bad at that resolution, once hi-res get a hold of it, it could be like a little hurricane.

 

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I see what you mean. Those Isobars are very close.

 

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90mph gusts for the coast of Wales?

 

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It looks like the next few model runs will be crucial to see what the other models make of this. With only 36 hours, it's going to hit a lot of people without much warning if it does come off as the GFS is showing it.

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