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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Any concerns with the Met Office warnings and how they go about issuing them then I suggest you take that up with them, not in this thread peeps! Posted Image

     

    Netweather Alert in force thanks to Nick F - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=3;sess=8f594e577d1183058b009e1a842eceb7

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    Did you bother to read post 598 by Evening Thunder? He makes a very good point!!!

     

    I wouldn't even bite mate not worth the hassle there's a great "ignore" button you can use :-)

     

    As for tomorrow the warnings are still updating so plenty of time yet - they are probably just  updating the most prone areas first.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    As of 12:47 the following areas have no warnings at all

     

    North West England

    North East England

    Yorkshire & Humber

     

    The following areas have a yellow warning for rain

     

    West Midlands

    East Midlands

     

    The following areas have an amber warning for heavy rain on Monday and into Tuesday

     

    Wales

    East of England

    South West England

    London & South East England

     

    The following areas have a yellow warning for strong winds on Tuesday

     

    Orkney & Shetland

    Highlands & Eilean Siar

    Grampian

    Strathclyde

    Central, Tayside & Fife

    SW Scotland,

    Lothian Borders

    Northern Ireland

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I think I will head over to confused.com because the Met Office aren't making much sense at the moment lol

     

    And breathe... ! lol

     

    They're working their backsides off at the moment, they may well be still updating the warning maps but safety is their priority, so things will be updated accordingly, chill. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    I think you may be missing something, Current estimates are for stronger mean and gusts for the south not just an east kent problem.

    Well latest metoffice warnings are for rain, as I would expect

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    This is the bit most are misisng

    Very strong south to southwesterly winds will accompany the rain, especially along exposed coasts and hills where gales or severe gales are likely. 
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    I remember during a particular snow event it took them nearly an hour to get the warning updates. Its worse of course when there are so many areas effected with different types of weather conditions involved.

    It takes time grasshoppers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Aha we now have an amber warning for rain! Looking at the frontal wave shown in many models I reckon that's a good call.

     

    Just in reference to John's post, not sure if he's referring to me but i'm rarely critical of the Met Office and think they do a good job and often come in for too much stick on here and elsewhere,  I'd just have thought it would be far easier to leave the previous warning until the newer update was issued, rather than leave an hour gap where someone might check the latest warnings who doesn't get a chance to again before tomorrow. However maybe their system means this isn't practical.

     

    I wonder if they will now put a wind warning on top of the rain warnings for the south, or if they feel that will make the map too complex. My only issue with that would be that location forecasts which many people would look at would only show the rain warning symbol and nothing for wind, I do think the gusts approaching 80mph they forecast for some S/SE coasts needs highlighting though maybe that's being too picky and hopefully many will get the message through BBC forecasts or actually reading the warning in detail :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    And breathe... ! lol

     

    They're working their backsides off at the moment, they may well be still updating the warning maps but safety is their priority, so things will be updated accordingly, chill. Posted Image

    If they haven't got near 100% confidence about what this so-called storm is going to produce when and where within 24 hours of it happening that doesn't leave me with much confidence, I swear they where better a forecasting storms 10-15 years ago. The chrismas/new year storms of 1997/98 and the October 2000 and 02 storms where all forecast about 5 days before accurately and on time and they didn't keep changing their minds!  I personally wouldn't be concerned about rain unless your unlucky enough to live near a river as for the wind there's just no escaping it if it decides to get wild so I sincerely hope they don't underestimate the potential of the gales in the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Although still not the fastest at updating they're better than they used to be. At one time by the time the warning was up the event was over. One day the warnings will be in real time updating as it goes along.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    I'll break it down for everybody as it stands..

    North west -

    Sustained 50mph gusting up to 90mph Maybe more! Bad times :(

    Northern Ireland: as above

    Wales - sustained 40-45mph

    gusting up to 65-70mph can't rule out an 80mph

    South west - sustained 40-45 on coasts probs 50mph gusting up to 70mph will see a 80+mph on Cornwall coast

    Central England - sustained 40mph perhaps a little less gusting up to 55-60mph hills will see a 70mph

    South east - 2 sets of winds here as it stands - 40-50mph sustained 50mph probs on coast gusts first round 70mph then perhaps up to 80mph across coast and slightly inland

    Rain - areas most at risk of flooding surface flooding - south Wales, south west, central southern Englan, south east

    30-40mm quite widely 50-60mm on hills dartmoor etc and into central England

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    New Meto model takes the pressure to 926mb at T45, if so we are getting close to one of the deepest lows of the last 100 years.

    Lots of model output to suggest winds of 40-50mph sustained, gusts to 100-120kpm and 925's reaching the surface i strong storm fronts of 75kts (ill let you look up what that all relates to).

    There is a very real worrying trend to take this deeper and deeper though.

    Tuesday needs watching when the core crosses northern ireland...You could well see sustained of 80mph imho and gusts well over 100mph. Possibly into the west borders as well.

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    post-6326-0-17120100-1387717123_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    The Irish Met haven't even mentioned the possibility of storm force winds!!!??Posted Image

     

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

     

     

    They will closer the time. Public service organisations don't have the luxury of jumping the gun and even panicing people because they get in to trouble if it does not come off.

     

    This looks a serious event right now but it may not be quite that way tomorrow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    To be fair BBC forecast had an Amber warning sign for wind over Southern England for tomorrow evening/night with 70mph indicated, winds further north over Scotland appear to have been downgraded ever so slightly earlier they where saying 80-90mph now their saying 70-80mph. They still seem more concerned with the rain in the south though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    On Monday i would give special mention to (devon, dorset, hampshire, kent) dartmouth, portland, Poole, bournemouth, IOW, southampton, brighton and Kent. With rain effect and that many of these areas are generally protected from most big winter storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    Innocuous looking little low at 1004mb. Oh, that will change!

    post-18389-0-17824700-1387717541_thumb.g

    Edited by BurntFishTrousers
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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    I did indeed David, and my comment would be the same as always, it is no use moaning on Net Waether about perceived issues with UK Met, send them an e mail.

    Some 98% of the UK population will simply read the area forecast and get their data from there. Those on whom we rely for taking care of our safety will already have the very latest update from Met. The web is at the bottom of their very long list of priorities. Don't believe me then ask Ian F what he thinks, or perhaps Jo. They will be able to explain the system currently in operation.

     

    You have to consider whether the burden of the people taking care of our safety would be lessened by more aggressive and timely warnings. There have been several incidents recently where ambivalence and delay in getting the severe message across has perhaps increased the workload for rescue services.

     

    Now is the time to have the warnings shouted out - get people on the move now and not at the height of the storm.

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    Posted
  • Location: West of Ireland
  • Location: West of Ireland

    They will closer the time. Public service organisations don't have the luxury of jumping the gun and even panicing people because they get in to trouble if it does not come off.

     

    This looks a serious event right now but it may not be quite that way tomorrow. 

    It's very unprofessional though, they should at least warn the public of the potential for this storm to develop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    It's very unprofessional though, they should at least warn the public of the potential for this storm to develop.

     

     

    It's not unprofessional at all. They have far more data than we have and if there is no warning the element of doubt has to be of a sufficiently wide nature. If things continue like forecast tomorrow you will be blue in the face hearing about it. For now it's 48 hrs out. Give it another 12 hours. :)

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Both 06z NAE and Latest high res Meto model, give 50-70mm over monday and tuesday for large parts of southern england. So obviously 70-80mm is quite likely in one or two places.

    This is on top of the wind and already very heavy satuated ground, with high river levels. Flooding will certainly be a problem for many unfortunate households who will have to move out of their homes for christmas...:(

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