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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Lets get this quite clear - this storm is NOT going to be anywhere near a hurricane (even if you want to argue whether such a term can be used extratropically). A low central pressure does not make a hurricane. 10 minute average wind speeds in excess of 64mph are required and we will probably manage half that. I'm quite sure if we were going to get a true hurricane strength storm there would be red warnings and coastal evacuation already happening.There will be 'hurricane' strength gusts of wind in exposed places. All that will do for those experiencing them is show just how bad a real hurricane is.

    Correction is 74mph sustained for a hurricane actually I think perhaps you where getting confused with Knots.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    Met office removed yellow warning of wind.

     

    Storm's gone guys we can all stop worrying now Posted Image

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Lets get this quite clear - this storm is NOT going to be anywhere near a hurricane (even if you want to argue whether such a term can be used extratropically). A low central pressure does not make a hurricane. 10 minute average wind speeds in excess of 64mph are required and we will probably manage half that. I'm quite sure if we were going to get a true hurricane strength storm there would be red warnings and coastal evacuation already happening.There will be 'hurricane' strength gusts of wind in exposed places. All that will do for those experiencing them is show just how bad a real hurricane is.

     

    The average (min) wind speed criteria for Hurricane force 12 the mean speed has to be >74mph.  So some places will be experiencing hurricane force gusts, and some. 

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I think we're getting a bit off-topic with the angst over hurricanes :lol:

    I'm certainly not expecting red warnings, ambers seem likely, difficult to know where, possibly across the Scottish central belt.

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France

    Correction is 74mph sustained for a hurricane actually I think perhaps you where getting confused with Knots.

    74mph is the 1 minute sustained figure, 64mph is the 10 minute sustained figure
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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Interesting update on Met Office site

     

    Yellow Snow warnings now gone up for Scotland

     

    Yellow wind warnings have gone, but i assume they are still updating right now

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Getting on for 20 mins now since the wind warnings were removed taking a while to get new ones out

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Hot off the press from BBC weather on twitter

     

    The Met Office are in the process of updating weather warnings, we will give you the details as soon as they have been issued! Laura G

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    "The Met Office are in the process of updating #weather warnings, we will give you the details as soon as they have been issued!"

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Storm 1 (23-24 Dec) is probably going to produce some damaging gusts in Ireland (scattered exposed areas north and west of a Dublin to Cork line and including much of NI) and western Scotland, northern England, but prospects are less certain for Wales and southern England, the low would have to be very deep and loop around closer than most solutions now show, although there will be some strong gusts with the initial phase mid-day Monday.

     

    Storm 2 (27-28 Dec) concerns me even more at this point because it seems likely to track further south and some GFS perturbations now show it becoming extremely intense (numbers 2 and 20, make sure you're fortified before you look). If either of those maps were to verify, it would be extremely bad for damage potential in both Ireland and the southern half of the UK. Fortunately they are outliers but something to monitor.

     

    The situation is a bit uncertain on both storms even now, the first one has all the isobars but lacks some components of dynamic energy, whereas the second one has more of the energy but will it actually deepen that much? It is already a powerful storm whereas the first low is barely forming up now as a wave east of Newfoundland, that second low is basically the monster storm moving through the eastern U.S. with extreme weather events all over the place, record highs on the east coast, record rainfalls in the Ohio valley, heavy snow further west, and very heavy icing from freezing rain near Lake Ontario on both sides of the border. Although it's only at 998 mbs now, it is progged to deepen steadily moving east and will then transition into this second low for the eastern Atlantic. I'd keep my eyes on that one if I lived south of about the Midlands.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Weather pro issued their own amber warning for rain and red warning for wind in my location, they've been pretty accurate too. I know it isn't official but it's still a good warning system. :good:

    post-15177-0-76540300-1387714266_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    New wind warnings out for Christmas eve

     

    Issued at - 22 Dec 2013, 12:00Valid from - 24 Dec 2013, 07:00Valid to - 24 Dec 2013, 23:59A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds across Scotland and Northern Ireland on Tuesday. There is the likelihood of widespread gales, with gusts to around 70 mph for much of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, the greatest likelihood of these values being towards the northwest where there will also be frequent wintry showers.The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds.

     

    Chief Forecaster's assessment

     

    An area of low pressure will deepen rapidly as it passes just to the west and northwest of the UK on Tuesday, ending up as an exceptionally deep feature. This will bring stormy conditions to Scotland and Northern Ireland on Tuesday with the strongest winds likely along coastlines exposed to the south and west, but more generally across parts of the north.

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Getting on for 20 mins now since the wind warnings were removed taking a while to get new ones out

    How long does it take usually to update warnings?

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    I probably expect some landslides from this storm, caused by some uprooted trees.

     

    Cobra meeting please David Cameron!! He probably not gonna have one because it means he have to interrupt his Christmas break. Out of touch as usual.

    Edited by pip22
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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Out now for Tuesday

    What from the Met Office?..

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Revised rain warnings out now

     

    Issued at - 22 Dec 2013, 12:07Valid from - 23 Dec 2013, 07:00Valid to - 24 Dec 2013, 09:00Another intense area of low pressure is expected to track close to the UK during Monday and into Christmas Eve. Associated heavy rain is expected to affect southern parts of England and Wales where the ground remains saturated following earlier heavy rainfall.Very strong south to southwesterly winds will accompany the rain, especially along exposed coasts and hills where gales or severe gales are likely.The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding and possible disruption to transport due to a combination of rain and wind. This is an update to the Alert issued on Saturday.

     

    Chief Forecaster's assessment

     

    The very unsettled period of weather is expected to continue with another intense area of low pressure developing over the Atlantic and tracking close to the northwest of the UK. Current indications are that southern England and south Wales are most at risk from further heavy rainfall, with the timing of the clearance of rain being the main uncertainty for this period - the rain probably clearing southeast England on Tuesday morning.

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    Mainly Scotland and NI so appear nothing to worry about away from those areas?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Mainly Scotland and NI so appear nothing to worry about away from those areas?

     

    I would give it another 30 mins or so to give them time to get sorted but it may be that Scotland and NI will take the brunt of the storm

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    They need to get someone in who can use Photoshop faster .. :ph34r: 

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Why have they removed the wind warnings for the south?...Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Why have they removed the wind warnings for the south?...Posted Image

     

    It could be they are still sorting tomorrows warnings out or the main risk has shifted to Scotland and NI the next 30 mins or so will tell us

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