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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Maybe I missed something but for the south looks like an East Kent problem for wind. With mean wind of 30-35 and gusts up to around 55 elsewhere in the south this shouldn't pose too many problems.

     

    Rain looks a bigger issue though

    Well I'm in Essex and 50-60mph gusts seem likely here perhaps more on higher ground or near coasts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Round 2 looks definitely on the cards. Looking like a massive bombing low has got our names on it for 27-28th too. Scary stuff, could even be some record breaking events with these storms.Hope everyone stays safe and hopefully get served hot turkeys!

     

    This is it, it looks like the Uk, is getting a double punch

    If the first storm causes a lot of damage (power lines down)

    The second one coming on 27-28 could hamper recovery efforts. It's looking rather grim

     

    If the Met Office update their warnings, it seems to be around noon-ish

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    Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

    Maybe I missed something but for the south looks like an East Kent problem for wind. With mean wind of 30-35 and gusts up to around 55 elsewhere in the south this shouldn't pose too many problems. Rain looks a bigger issue though

    To be perfectly honest I think you have missed something.
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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    Ok, What the?

     

    936mb ?

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    http://geography.about.com/od/lists/a/hurrcategories.htm

     

    I know this is going to be quite powerful, But this could be classed as a Category 1 or Cat2 hurricane (* If we technically were allowed them )

    Edited by Lynxus
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    The low on the 27th is further south and not that much weaker - Seems that if it comes off it would be equally destructive as the one we are facing tomorrow.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    Makes me laugh you lot do, when we have storms we always hear people moaning it's downgraded, just enjoy it whilst it lasts will you.

    I know what your saying but i have a mum whos disabled and lives on her own the wind poses a real problem for her not being able to stand properly plus shes nearly 70 so i want it to jog on.
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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    Ok, What the?

     

    936mb ?

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    http://geography.about.com/od/lists/a/hurrcategories.htm

     

    I know this is going to be quite powerful, But this could be classes as a Cat1 or Cat2 hurricane (* If we technically were allowed them )

    This picture is even more powerful (Midday Xmas Eve) Showing 928mb.Posted ImageIn fact we have the same picture your only looking at the numbers north of that 936 mb its the top one is 928mb.

    Edited by Skulltheruler
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    James Reynolds on Twiter just posted the latest Met Office Surface Pressure Chart for Xmas eve.

     

    Posted Image

     

    932mb Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    Ok, What the?

     

    936mb ?

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    http://geography.about.com/od/lists/a/hurrcategories.htm

     

    I know this is going to be quite powerful, But this could be classed as a Category 1 or Cat2 hurricane (* If we technically were allowed them )

    actually a little lower than 928, 936 is 3rd isobar out

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    This picture is even more powerful (Midday Xmas Eve) Showing 928mb.Posted Image

    Below 930mb would make it central pressure reading comparable with a major Cat 3 to 4 hurricane but obviously the sustained winds will be nowhere near as high but hurricane-force gusts are quite likely in places that are exposed, even inland though we are generally talking minimum Gale force if not Severe Gale 9 boarder line storm 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

    Ok, What the?

     

    936mb ?

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    http://geography.about.com/od/lists/a/hurrcategories.htm

     

    I know this is going to be quite powerful, But this could be classes as a Cat1 or Cat2 hurricane (* If we technically were allowed them )

     

    The force of the winds could yes, the only reason we cannot claim to be affected by hurricanes is because they are simply areas of grouped tropical thunderstorms and not frontal systems but our winds can be described as hurricane-force if they match the same speeds.  Apologies if you already know this well!

     

    I have advised my sister to travel down to Sunderland from Edinburgh today rather than tomorrow, unfortunately I have an aunt travelling up from Leeds on Tuesday but that will be in the evening when the winds may have lessened somewhat.  Otherwise that journey may have to be Christmas morning.  I would say to others to advise your friends and family to do the same, as you probably already are doing.

    Edited by Chris W
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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    actually a little lower than 928, 936 is 3rd isobar out

     

    So yeah.. To be honest. Up north. This could easily be classed as a Category 2 hurricane if it were in the states.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    90-100mph winds would make it boarder line comparable with a strong category 2 and nothing I've seen from the projected models suggests those sort of winds aren't possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    90-100mph winds would make it boarder line comparable with a strong category 2 and nothing I've seen from the projected models suggests those sort of winds aren't possible.

     

    Those winds would have to be sustained for that to be the case :)

     

    And if that does happen then maybe those Express headlines wouldn't have been too far from the truth. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

     

    No they didn't, though unfortunately some of the public, if they remember, will think they were right and this is somehow the end of Typhoon Haiyan..

     

    I'm wondering if there may be an amber warning is issued for the south or perhaps the SE, as a frontal wave seems to strengthen the winds slightly more for the SE on Monday evening/night, with coastal 80mph gusts possible. Also this frontal wave prolongs/renews the rainfall in the south so it's possible they will issue an amber for rain too. For example the NAE and EURO4 models give quite widely 40mm in the south, and some places 50-60mm (perhaps more over hills i.e South Dartmoor.

     

    in fact the EURO4 00z (latest) showed 50mm widely for southern counties, and 75mm+ over Dartmoor and south Wales (although a small amount of this includes showers today).

    Posted Image

    NAE 06z shows the highest 50mm+ totals into the SE and around/over higher ground of SW England and South Wales.

    Posted Image

     

    Almost forgot to add I also think we may today see an amber warning for parts of Scotland and perhaps some of Northern Ireland for Tuesday. 

    Edited by Evening thunder
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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    People going a bit OTT here. Yes potential for some severe winds over Ireland & Scotland but equally lots of perturbations don't have the gradient as tight as the OP.

     

    Ultimately the bottom pressure of the low is not the most important factor, it is the gradient and it does not look devastatingly tight on most runs.

     

    Yes southern England will receive some high wind gusts in association with CF passage, gusts from 50-65mph and perhaps higher on some coasts.

     

    Of course Needles will probably get a 90-100mph wind gust to make the headlines! But not representative.

    Edited by Matty M
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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
    Shades of this http://en.wikipedia....of_January_1993 (record 914mb)
     
    Only once has the shipping forecast come out with this gem during same storm: http://en.wikipedia....ipping_Forecast (see Broadcast format)
     
    Rockall, Malin, Hebrides, Bailey. Southwest hurricane force 12 or more

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    People going a bit OTT here. Yes potential for some severe winds over Ireland & Scotland but equally lots of perturbations don't have the gradient as tight as the OP.

     

    Ultimately the bottom pressure of the low is not the most important factor, it is the gradient and it does not look devastatingly tight on most runs.

     

    Yes southern England will receive some high wind gusts in association with CF passage, gusts from 50-65mph and perhaps higher on some coasts.

     

    Of course Needles will probably get a 90-100mph wind gust to make the headlines! But not representative.

    One of the tightest gradients I've seen in a long time (including over Ireland / NI) !

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Monday afternoon looks interesting for us winds 50 to 70mph possibly higher and then a fairly "quiet" Tuesday to inspect the roof while the rest of the country gets battered. Good xmas for roofers I think.

    Tuesday early hours the south gets really battered 80mph plus widespread along the coast 60- 70mph further afield. A slight adjust either way will make a huge difference to people xmas plans.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    People going a bit OTT here. Yes potential for some severe winds over Ireland & Scotland but equally lots of perturbations don't have the gradient as tight as the OP.

     

    Ultimately the bottom pressure of the low is not the most important factor, it is the gradient and it does not look devastatingly tight on most runs.

     

    Yes southern England will receive some high wind gusts in association with CF passage, gusts from 50-65mph and perhaps higher on some coasts.

     

    Of course Needles will probably get a 90-100mph wind gust to make the headlines! But not representative.

     

    50-65mph? The Met Office wind map shows 60mph+ for almost all of the Souther England at some point, and up to 80 along the coast, might just be me but I think quite a few places will get significant gusts at some point.

    Edited by Sainsbo
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