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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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As expected - Some pretty monster dartboards  churning out from the ensembles, not quite as low as previous runs, perhaps. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=60

Where is Scotland! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-60.png

925mb is just nuts, and that's for the Xmas Eve. I still think the 27th will be slightly deeper.

 

One question regarding the models - have they a good understanding of pressure gradients like this because I don't recall two dartboards at sub 930mb this close before?

It is the 'pub' run BFT! Posted Image

Which has in fact been correct a few times :)

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Same here. Absolutely love mother natures power.. but I wouldn't wan't see any hurt or killed by it.  

 

Ya can't have your cake and eat it..... Me? I want storms of such ferocity that the world ends - it'd be worth it. But hey, this is South Yorkshire and no tempting and taunting of fate will give me that. I've got me 'mainly dry with sunny spells' survival kit all up to scratch.

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We may be part of the continent if some of those came off! Posted Image

 

Talking a week away so lots could change before we get there. Gusts would likely exceed 100mph with force 11 to force 12 mean speeds...

 

post-9615-0-38087200-1387669099_thumb.pn Especially something like this, insane pressure gradient. 

Edited by Liam J
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Going to go through the 18z GFS and 12z ECM and talk about what each of them currently show for Monday and Tuesday,

 

First up the GFS 18z,

 

Monday 9am - The low has made a long journey across the Atlantic to give us a hello for Christmas by 9am it is to the West of Ireland and starts deepening,

 

post-6686-0-77412100-1387667964_thumb.pn

 

Gusts between 60 to 70mph are likely across Ireland, Wales and England,

 

post-6686-0-25592000-1387668062_thumb.pn

 

Monday 6pm - The low has moved up to the North West of Scotland and continues to deepen although not rapidly,

 

post-6686-0-45623200-1387668162_thumb.pn

 

During the evening and up to midnight 60 to 70mph gusts will be widespread across much of the UK and the South East of England along with the Southern English coasts could see around 80 to 85mph gusts,

 

post-6686-0-49924000-1387668210_thumb.pn

 

Tuesday 9am - Over the next few hours the low pressure system continues to slowly deepen and moves North as well,

 

post-6686-0-90261000-1387668472_thumb.pn

 

The wind will ease off across Southern parts but the Northern side of the UK can still expect gusts of 60 to 75mph,

 

post-6686-0-06869200-1387668552_thumb.pn

 

The winds slowly ease down but stay strong in the North for the rest of Tuesday.

 

Now the ECM,

 

60 hours Tuesday 12am it also shows strong winds for the South East of England I've put it on the image below,

 

post-6686-0-11174100-1387668848_thumb.pn

 

72 hours on Tuesday early afternoon it agrees with the GFS and shows strong winds for the North of the UK,

 

post-6686-0-03908200-1387669020_thumb.pn

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Good to see NAVGEM back it hasn't updated on some sites since yesterdays 12z run.

 

Current 18z shows pretty much the same as the GFS in terms on deepness and tracking of the low.

 

Also has anyone noticed that before this deep low came along meteociel didn't show anything below 950mb for GEM and NAVGEM but now because of this low they do Posted Image

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For those having a go at people who are very interested in severe weather.

I'm pretty sure people like James Reynolds don't want to see death & destruction, but these very powerful storms do happen, and i think it's good that

people wish to document them (putting their own arses on the firing line, in the process)

 

The weather helps to keep people on their toes, as we have no control over it. If it was quiet & boring all the time, with clear blue skies every day, i would

personally find that extremely tedious

 

Back to the current situation. For the St Jude storm, the amber warnings went up very early, with some very strongly worded warnings

I'm thinking, time of year, many many people travelling, i'm not sure the message is strong enough yet.

 

I mean the central pressures being modelled here for Monday & later next week. Low pressure of 965 or 955 would be serious, but 934, or maybe

even lower. Geez.. the sort of central pressures you get in Major Hurricanes !!!

 

I don't think it would be overhype to step up the warnings, and get the word out, this is looking dangerous

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We may be part of the continent if some of those came off! Posted Image

 

Talking a week away so lots could change before we get there. Gusts would likely exceed 100mph with force 11 to force 12 mean speeds...

 

Posted Imagegfsx3.png Especially something like this, insane pressure gradient. 

 

That it is quite scary tbh. I dread to think what chaos a low with isobars as tight as this could cause.

 

The 23rd/24th storm looks to hit my area during the day whilst I will be at work, should be an interesting drive home.

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For those who are annoyed at people for liking a good storm... why is there never annoyance shown at those who "hunt for cold"? Extreme cold weather can be just as (if not more) dangerous than a storm that lasts a few hours. People who enjoy extreme weather of any sort are not wishing harm on anyone... most are enthralled by mother nature and keen on learning the science behind such events.

 

As for the upcoming Christmas storm... I hope everyone stays safe and it's not as bad as predicted at present.

Edited by AugustSky
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Some of the stronger model depictions would place this storm in a category with fierce windstorms of the distant past such as 6-7 Jan 1839 and 8 Dec 1886, for which maps exist and gradients can be compared. If the strongest third of the 20 GFS solutions provide our real storm, then expect some local gusts as high as 150 km/hr at sea level and 220 km/hr on hilltops. If the weakest third apply, the windstorm will be reduced to constant nuisance wind gusts of 90-110 km/hr. The compromise middle third would be somewhat hit or miss on damaging gusts in Ireland and Scotland, parts of northern England and Wales. I would go with that middle third as most likely but we need to keep very alert for that strongest band of solutions (generally speaking, the ones with sub-930 mb centres but also the further south the centre, the tighter the gradient over populated land areas).

 

It will also be interesting to watch whether or not the tight counter-clockwise loop scenario on some GFS variants comes to pass because generally speaking the other models just keep the centre moving slowly northeast. This is another feature of concern, a slow-moving low of this intensity can produce wind damage lasting many hours which can add to the overall impacts.

 

 

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Some of the stronger model depictions would place this storm in a category with fierce windstorms of the distant past such as 6-7 Jan 1839 and 8 Dec 1886, for which maps exist and gradients can be compared. If the strongest third of the 20 GFS solutions provide our real storm, then expect some local gusts as high as 150 km/hr at sea level and 220 km/hr on hilltops. If the weakest third apply, the windstorm will be reduced to constant nuisance wind gusts of 90-110 km/hr. The compromise middle third would be somewhat hit or miss on damaging gusts in Ireland and Scotland, parts of northern England and Wales. I would go with that middle third as most likely but we need to keep very alert for that strongest band of solutions (generally speaking, the ones with sub-930 mb centres but also the further south the centre, the tighter the gradient over populated land areas).

 

It will also be interesting to watch whether or not the tight counter-clockwise loop scenario on some GFS variants comes to pass because generally speaking the other models just keep the centre moving slowly northeast. This is another feature of concern, a slow-moving low of this intensity can produce wind damage lasting many hours which can add to the overall impacts.

hello Roger. long time since we chatted. nice to see a concise and informative post. been in the SE of the country  i am hoping for the middle third. but its a close call as to how north the low sits. which ever way it looks, its still going to give a blast which may not be welcome :)

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Worrying times... never or lets say do not remember such severely active prolonged stormy weather, starting to wonder what is going on in the atmosphere and that, don't rename the DAT movie as the DATODAY.. sure you can work out what this is! but can we imagine if suddenly there's a top meeting about something has been set off and this is the start.... OK back to reality cup of coffee!

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Got a question for peeps... no doubt tomorrow there will be power cuts.. And I hope to God if there is they are fixed before Christmas dinner cooking time.. But all the houses down my lane are above ground power, mine is under ground.. Does that mean of the pylon goes down will it cut my power too?

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I fear my post last night has been misconstrued, so let me put the matter straight.

 

I don't think for one second that anyone on here WANTS people to die or buildings to be destroyed. All I was saying is that weather extremes such as the potential one tomorrow, DO put lives and property in danger and, with the number of people travelling home for Christmas, this is a very worrying event. There is a high chance that there will be fatalities in this major storm system, and I am sure that the thrill of extreme weather events will be lost on the families of those people.

 

Yes, we can't control the weather; yes, it will do what it likes, yes, it would be boring if it was the same all the time. But that doesn't mean I have to like it.

 

However, each to their own and for those that do find these things exhilarating, then enjoy and stay safe.

 

Cheers

Posted Image

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We may be part of the continent if some of those came off! Posted Image

 

Talking a week away so lots could change before we get there. Gusts would likely exceed 100mph with force 11 to force 12 mean speeds...

 

Posted Imagegfsx3.png Especially something like this, insane pressure gradient. 

my only  problem  people might be  out   and they could easily get  hit by flying things  i.e.  monday/tuesday  a  lot of people  will be  out celebrating   end of  work 

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Got a question for peeps... no doubt tomorrow there will be power cuts.. And I hope to God if there is they are fixed before Christmas dinner cooking time.. But all the houses down my lane are above ground power, mine is under ground.. Does that mean of the pylon goes down will it cut my power too?

Your risk of disruption depends on where your supply is fed from, what else is on the same circuit, and what redundancy is available upstream. Pole mounted LV runs are somewhat vulnerable to wind damage, the greater risk generally comes from the local distribution network where there are longer high voltage runs often through wooded areas. I think you'd be unlucky to still be on when everyone around you was off.-I think the length of time of strong winds could catch some people out.
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