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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Chris Faulkes on BBC weather just indicating 90mph gusts for Scotland Monday night, up to 80 mph here on the south coast. I've yet to check any charts, but that backs up most of yesterdays output

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Perhaps later today or early tomorrow the Met Office will begin advising against all but essential travel on Monday & Tuesday. I do not mean to hype but I think the danger is clear and present at this stage.

What are the data on western coasts and the Isle of Man regarding a storm surge?

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Latest GFS has the low further south - bad news for NI and Scotland with severe gales at a very bad time on Christmas Eve. Hopefully most people will travel earlier to avoid possible disruption. Obviously future runs may alter the low further north/south so it's still a run-to-run situation regarding where the biggest impacts will be felt.

 

Posted Image

 

Also very wet for the southwest with some very heavy rain:

 

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Edited by Cold Winter
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Tuesday looking okay for us plus southerly winds so we will miss the action. Same really for Monday wrong direction so we'll be sheltered again. Plenty of time for it too change though.

Edited by The PIT
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NMM wind gust & PPN charts for Monday afternoon.

 

Posted Image52b562aaec8d83bc26000086.jpeg Very active cold front crossing the UK. 

 

Thunder and lightning here atm and very gusty!! 

 

Posted Image 52b56372ec8d83369c000026.

Is that extreme band of winds moving from west to east? If so even SE can expect 70mph gusts Posted Image It's going to be a BOMB!  lol

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The storm track for Monday seems to have headed further South, and has deepened slightly on some models. Anything can happen to the Storm in the coming weekend, although it looks highly likely the storm will hit the UK with some serious strength, now the main question is, how far South will the storm go?

 

Posted Image gens-16-1-8

North West would still feel the brunt based on that chart 90-100mph+ quite feasible in exposure there, here in the south still 50-70mph inland 80-90mph on coasts so still very bad.

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Is that extreme band of winds moving from west to east? If so even SE can expect 70mph gusts Posted Image It's going to be a BOMB!  lol

BBC calling for 80mph gusts on SE coasts Monday night,inland between 60mph and 70mph i would imagine,certainly comparable with The Jude storm in October and potentialy worse due to longevity of the winds this time,October only saw an hour or so of wild gusts,we could be looking at 8 hours or more of damaging winds this time.
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Next severe low incoming for the 27th/28th:

 

Posted Image

Looks bad as it's significantly further south, Southern England would take the brunt if that chart is anything to go by.

BBC calling for 80mph gusts on SE coasts Monday night,inland between 60mph and 70mph i would imagine,certainly comparable with The Jude storm in October and potentialy worse due to longevity of the winds this time,October only saw an hour or so of wild gusts,we could be looking at 8 hours or more of damaging winds this time.

BLOODY HECK Posted Image

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I think this will definitely be more severe then St'Jude the highest gust we recorded then was 53mph and the stormy spell only lasted about 45 minutes if that lol. This is going to be several hours or more of 60mph+ inland gusts with 80mph+ on coasts, all I can say to Santa Clause is good luck.

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No mean to cause panic or alarm.. But shouldn't we start to be seeing downgrades? All we are getting is upgrades!! Tbh you would need some serious downgrades over all the models to reduce the impact of this storm imo... Not good times.. Nevertheless we will learn from these storms and be able to predict them better than we already do :)

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No mean to cause panic or alarm.. But shouldn't we start to be seeing downgrades? All we are getting is upgrades!! Tbh you would need some serious downgrades over all the models to reduce the impact of this storm imo... Not good times.. Nevertheless we will learn from these storms and be able to predict them better than we already do Posted Image

Wait and see.

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I would wait for tomorrow's 12 oz before panicking too much. Changes in direction of the wind due shifts position on the low pressure can all make a big difference. If the winds swing to the south west I'm back in firing line. 

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No mean to cause panic or alarm.. But shouldn't we start to be seeing downgrades? All we are getting is upgrades!! Tbh you would need some serious downgrades over all the models to reduce the impact of this storm imo... Not good times.. Nevertheless we will learn from these storms and be able to predict them better than we already do Posted Image

Well the MetO gust prediction chart has downgraded for my location ever so slightly so maybe that's the start of a downgrading or just a fluctuation in the model runs, yesterday it was saying 65mph now it's predicting between 55-60mph still going to be no picnic whatever way you look at it!

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better off checking your property and garden and securing anything loose !...

Of course. But that's not causing panic and isn't what posters have been saying. "we're going to get totalled" isn't the same as "don't leave your patio set loose outside". Edited by NickR
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