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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Worrying times ahead folks especially over the Xmas period with many people travelling to stay with family, my brother will be making his way up here from Leeds on Xmas Eve. Potentially something of similar magnitude after Boxing Day! 

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

    I am unable to post it from my mobile but the Met Office fax chart has the central pressure of the low down to around 936mb on Christmas Eve and very close to Scotland. Exactly what track it takes remains to be seen, but that is quite extraordinary.

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    915mb... Posted Image

    From memory, the lowest ever central pressure for a cold water North Atlantic depression is 913mb. We're into that territory now!

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    From memory, the lowest ever central pressure for a cold water North Atlantic depression is 913mb. We're into that territory now!

    could we get red  warning reg  Tuesday  its looking  horrible can see huge trouble brewing

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    What I also think will cause problems come Monday into Tuesday storm espically for the South is how long the winds hang around...

     

    Currently on the met 60-70MPH gusts from about 6PM Monday through to Tuesday Morning...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

    could we get red  warning reg  Tuesday  its looking  horrible can see huge trouble brewing

    It's looking more and more likely that some parts of the country are going to be hit quite badly by this storm but as usual, the devil is in the detail so I would expect the Met O are frantically scratching heads to get it right before issuing warnings.One difference here though is not just the extreme central pressure but the vast size of the system and this could be one that genuinely covers the entire British Isles.
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Normally we see these Atlantic lows out at 120-144 and they dilute upon timeline to verification. Nearly ever ensemble goes beyond meteociel limit of 930mb today.

     

    ECM 500hPa and Jet, just look at that bottle neck..

    post-7292-0-14538200-1387611764_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-89194900-1387611766_thumb.pn

     

    Met Office Fax Monday / Tuesday

    post-7292-0-85357900-1387611460_thumb.gipost-7292-0-84058800-1387611463_thumb.gi

     

    ECM / GEM / GFS / GME /UKMO solutions - 

    post-7292-0-52591300-1387611454_thumb.gipost-7292-0-49709700-1387611455_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-49226700-1387611456_thumb.pn

    post-7292-0-56165700-1387611458_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-63405200-1387611466_thumb.gi

     

    ECM SLP has this at 926mb - mean

    post-7292-0-70549500-1387611774_thumb.pn

     

    This one is just going to fly across the Atlantic on that yr.no animation. Already Yellow warnings in place for many parts for Monday and Tuesday, certainly going to keep everyone on their toes up until Xmas.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

     

     

    just looked  at now  and deep into f1 main worry for me  is  Monday/Tuesday looks  like big  trouble  for  us  in  the u.k. plus  there looks  like there on let up  to the storms  next  worry  will be  how  much flooding and  storm damage  going  to hit  us at  the moment  its looking  very nasty  to say the  least!!

    Edited by tinybill
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Posted Image Posted Image

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    Look away now if you don't like stormy weather...

    This is for Monday afternoon, 60KTS-65KTS heading into S-UK this is 75mph gusts during the daytime quite a concern, these charts are a guide and some gusts could be a little higher than this:

    Posted Image

    Tuesday and over 70KTS that's 80mph hitting west side of Scotland:

    Posted Image

    Even the deep oranges are at least 60mph

    Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    The Met mention the potential for gusts up to 90mph, highest risk over Scotland. Rough times ahead...

     

    post-9615-0-84045200-1387612623_thumb.jp

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    I think mentioning the sustained winds across southern areas would be something of interest too, 30-40mph continuous wind? imagine this with gusts up to 70mph or more Mon and into Tue, not to mention the prolonged nature of the severe storm. worrying that the fuel that fueled the previous storms is still playing up, theres one big bash coming up and possibly the worst so far (hope not but this is real and is possible)

    Don't remember so many storms in such a space of time like this, there just following each other, but this is what the jet stream can do, but not really usual as far as I see it, not normal for any month? really amazing. 

     

    Same for north but just highlighting south as not get many big storms down here!

    Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Some incredibly low central pressures showing for this low on Xmas Eve, 00z ECM coming in at 924mb at 06z:

     

    post-1052-0-60934100-1387611615_thumb.pn

     

    Looking at GFS wind gust charts, the gusts in the wind field close to this low don't look to be anything more than what Nern Britain has experienced over recent days though, gusts widely of 60-70mph Tuesday evening across Scotland, N Ireland and N England, perhaps 70-80mph for a time, perhaps 80mph+ offshore/exposed western coasts. However, the notable thing about this low is how long it stays close to the NW of Britain, which means a prolonged period of gales Monday through Xmas Eve and into Xmas Day.

     

    Very potent cold front sweeping east ahead of this low Monday Pm, and GFS is indicating widespread gales or severe gales with passage of this front

     

    post-1052-0-36871700-1387612422_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-73207400-1387612430_thumb.pn

     

    Models not making much of today's wave crossing Nern England, but it may bring a small window of enhanced gusts across central areas. Perhaps 50-60mph gusts. Then early next week's deep low deepens rapidly Monday morning onwards in the left exit of a 200mph+ jet racing across the Atlantic, the most rapid deepening phase on GFS occurs noon Monday onwards into early Tuesday - helped a sharpening upper trough pushing E out of NE Canada - which contains some very cold mid-level air.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

    I expect that Met O warnings will be updated substantially later today as they are completely at odds with their own forecasts for Monday and Tuesday at present.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire, West Midlands, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Sun
  • Location: Warwickshire, West Midlands, United Kingdom

    A model is now suggesting that the Boxing Day storm could be the storm with the LOWEST recorded pressure in the North Atlantic. The UK is under attack by upcoming storms, I must actually be lucky to be going on holiday during this week, although the return might not be so safe just by looking at the models.

    post-17472-0-04528100-1387613464_thumb.j

    SMASHING! 910mb Storm heading directly towards the UK! Possibly the Worst Ever Storm in the UK.

    I cant say I am looking forwards to returning to the UK possibly with a tree on top of my house!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    C123 that's a big picture of a big storm!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

    I have a long drive to do on Monday. Timing is up to me. Would I be right in thinking that earlier would be better than later?

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: snow, blizzards, thunder snow, thunder and lightning, heat waves, tornadoes
  • Location: Chelmsford

    I have a long drive to do on Monday. Timing is up to me. Would I be right in thinking that earlier would be better than later?

     

    Yes, the earlier you start your drive on Monday the better I would say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

    Thanks! Will get away before five AM!

    Yes, the earlier you start your drive on Monday the better I would say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Just about all the model suite is in consensus for this upcoming stormy or very stormy spell next week, just look at the 930mb ensemble mean! Still time for downgrades... Or upgrades!? 

     

    If you have friends or family travelling next week then it might be worth letting them know of the potential disruptive weather which is likely to happen. 

     

    post-9615-0-62285800-1387618216_thumb.gi 6z NAE, all eyes to the S&W Monday morning. 

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I wonder why upgrades are rarer than downgrades. Well our black bin will be blowing away Christmas eve. No choice to put it out since we're on fortnightly collections. Anyway registered for alerts in case they cancel the collection.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    NMM wind gust & PPN charts for Monday afternoon.

     

    post-9615-0-15391500-1387619020_thumb.jp Very active cold front crossing the UK. 

     

    Thunder and lightning here atm and very gusty!! 

     

    post-9615-0-90864900-1387619200_thumb.jp

    Edited by Liam J
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