Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

[Long haul to mild]

Yeah but your near the coast so I can understand why St Jude would have been worse for you perhaps, but here it wasn't anything that exceptional quite a sudden and intense squall but nowhere near the 80mph widespread storm they anticipated. That prediction of 65mph is all based on approximate estimates and the computer runs are probably still trying to catch up, I suspect it'll end up more powerful then that on the coast seeing as inland gusts around my area are predicted at 55-65mph.

Coastal proximity wasn't the issue with Jude; it was the squall line that came through. However, as you say, coastal areas look set to be hit badly tomorrow.

I think the maximum land gust for ST Jude was 81mph? I would be amazed if that figure was not equaled given the data we are seeing or even slightly exceeded around sussex and kent coastlines

Sorry, mine was a bit of a IMBY post; we had gusts very close to 80mph here in October and I haven't see a prediction of 70mph yet away from the coasts that you correctly mention for tomorrow.

[karlos1983]

Quite over Denmark and other east European areas winds of 100mph+ where reported but St'Jude didn't get her act together soon enough to have maximum effect on the UK mainland.

It's pressure dropped very quickly in a short period of time as well I recall, the sting jet is what caused the major damaging winds, no sting jet here, just a very deep low and good old tight isobars, which will pack a punch, very prolonged, whereas St.Judes was not. Also a hell of a lot of rain, more especially for southern England

[knightrider]

930mb and winds only for a yellow? I'd have thought at such low pressure 100+mph would surely not be out of the question for exposed parts. Perhaps its me or it may be a little underestimated?

No it's not just you, I think the Met Office have their work cut out and at the moment they are struggling to cope with the rapidness that this beast is growing!

[JennyJane1]

That was December 5th 2013 around 3 weeks ago? Correct me if I'm wrong?

http://www.greatyarmouthmercury.co.uk/news/floods_great_yarmouth_two_weeks_on_1_3139564

 

yes, this is a local newspaper articel about it, showing some of the houses on the slide into the sea.

[knightrider]

Coastal proximity wasn't the issue with Jude; it was the squall line that came through. However, as you say, coastal areas look set to be hit badly tomorrow.Sorry, mine was a bit of a IMBY post; we had gusts very close to 80mph here in October and I haven't see a prediction of 70mph yet away from the coasts that you correctly mention for tomorrow.

The squall from St Jude was caused by the sting jet, it'll be interesting to see if something as sudden and intense develops in this system!

[Matty M]

The bottom pressure is not the main point, the gradient is the most important thing, and a large % of models don't show this to be too great for Ireland and Scotland, of course gales, storm winds at sea but not to the extent you may first expect when you think of a 930hPa storm approaching.

The winds for southern England are mostly associated with the cold front and that tightening of the gradient will occasionally bring down some very strong winds at the 925hPa level to the surface with some damaging gusts from 60-70mph inland and perhaps 80mph along the southern/southeast coastal fringe.

[Bluebreezer54]

MetO need to issue an amber warning if there is a realistic chance of 80mph+ winds in low lying populated areas which has been forecast for the North West of Scotland and Ireland where 90mph has even been hinted. If winds where predicted to be any stronger then that then a Red warning would need to be issued.

 

Have you e-mailed the Met Office to express your concerns and offer your advice ? If so what was their reply ?  If you haven't why not ?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

http://www.greatyarmouthmercury.co.uk/news/floods_great_yarmouth_two_weeks_on_1_3139564

 

yes, this is a local newspaper articel about it, showing some of the houses on the slide into the sea.

Yeah. Devastating scenes. This was however a separate storm that affected Northern and Eastern England and was not St Jude, just for your information 

[sunnijim]

930mb and winds only for a yellow? I'd have thought at such low pressure 100+mph would surely not be out of the question for exposed parts. Perhaps its me or it may be a little underestimated?

Despite its depth there is not a squeeze in the isobars to promote such wind speed,its not all about the depth of low pressure.Infact a 977mb system could produce much stronger winds with a tighter gradiant.

[ocean]

I think because its a rapidly developing system thats still to form any warnings given will be overnight for the morning. Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Met Office tonight. Pandemonium no doubt.

[Long haul to mild]

The squall from St Jude was caused by the sting jet, it'll be interesting to see if something as sudden and intense develops in this system!

I flipping well hope not; can't afford to replace another fence and can do without power cuts for Christmas!

[sunnijim]

It's pressure dropped very quickly in a short period of time as well I recall, the sting jet is what caused the major damaging winds, no sting jet here, just a very deep low and good old tight isobars, which will pack a punch, very prolonged, whereas St.Judes was not. Also a hell of a lot of rain, more especially for southern England

correct me if i'm wrong but i dont think Jude produced a sting jet over the uk? It had potential to,but that was only realised over scandanavia.

[Eskimo]

70mph inland gusts - thats probably an event that happens every couple of years ? if not once a year ? so nothing particularly special

 

if we were talking 80-90mph gusts - then that would be of more concern - but thats not predicted is it ?

I haven't seen 70mph gusts here in North Herts since the early 90's. 

[karlos1983]

correct me if i'm wrong but i dont think Jude produced a sting jet over the uk? It had potential to,but that was only realised over scandanavia.

As far as I'm aware it did, hence some very strong inland gusts.

[ancientsolar]

It's things like this we must be aware of. It only takes a gust or 2 and all hell can break loose.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-25479920

[Buckster]

are 70mph gusts predicted for North Herts ?? I thought too far inland/west ?

[knightrider]

Well the Countryfile forecast for the week ahead certainly made for interesting and rather ominous viewing  Friday's low looks pretty big and menacing also!  Peter Gibbs definitely going for potential 70mph gusts across over SE tomorrow evening and overnight into Tuesday.

[Mapantz]

I always dig my vids out in this situation. :lol:

This is where i'll be heading to tomorrow.

[Eskimo]

If there ever was a warning issued for armchair critics....

 <<<<<<<<  Hey! That's me!!

[knightrider]

I haven't seen 70mph gusts here in North Herts since the early 90's. 

I'm sure you would have seen them in the October 2000 and 2002 storms.

[Sainsbo]

I don't understand why people are comparing St Jude with a storm that hasn't even happened yet? Like with most deep lows that are prone to change within very short timeframes nowcasting is the most reliable thing to do to see how bad it is. Regardless of which ends up being worse, it will likely be a notable storm for a lot of people, we will probably have a more accurate representation of the events this time tomorrow.

 

All that being said, stay safe all on your travels. Better to be safe than sorry in cases like this.

[Eskimo]

It was friendly in here, now it's turning into Christmas Day 

[knightrider]

If there ever was a warning issued for armchair critics....

Some earlier pointers, odd hint, just go ignored...obviously we have more experts in our midst! Not picking anyone out in particular no no no..

I wasn't criticising them, but let's face it their damned if they do and damned if they don't. I think more Amber warnings might be added in the overnight period so hopefully people will acknowledge them in the morning tomorrow before they set off on any ventures!

[JennyJane1]

Yeah. Devastating scenes. This was however a separate storm that affected Northern and Eastern England and was not St Jude, just for your information 

oh have i confused my storm systems? lol, and I haven't even had any mulled wine.

[rossco89]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNo6SD4rCAM