Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

[Mesosphere]

As mentioned earlier by a poster should be some fairly swift eastbound transatlantic flights in the next 1-2 days! 

 

Tonights chart and they are taking advantage of the quick jetstream

 

Edited December 22, 2013 by Mesosphere

[Dancerwithwings]

Lorenzo... Can you get a link to what Lynxus was showing, It was clearly showing the low to the north of Ireland at 3:00 Tuesday ..Cheers

[knightrider]

Yes, a good point. The gusts are not likely to be as high as St Jude but that was just a few hours in most places as the system whizzed through the country. This is a good 12 hours of sustained wind and rain so not to be taken lightly. I will be glad when it's all over and am keeping fingers crossed that it won't be too damaging.

A few hours, where abouts where you?... St Jude came out went in barely half an hour here lol   And the top gust in my area was 53mph, MetO are forecasting mean winds of 40mph with 65-75mph gusts in my neck of the woods for the 9pm to midnight period tomorrow so higher gusts and lasting several hours!

[Buckster]

just watched the latests bbc news forecast - didn't look as severe as some people making out on here

 

yes rainfall totals could be an issue -but away from coasts the winds didn't seem particularly out of the ordinary - for a winter storm that is anyway

[knightrider]

St Jude did not bring any strong winds here at all for me and much of the East Midlands wondered what all the fuss was about too!! This looks to be a countrywide threat for the equivalence of what St Jude brought, and lasting much longer too. 

St Jude was so overhyped especially when they tried to compare it to 1987 that was just embarrassing media sensationalism, a 50mph squall lasting not even an hour hardly constituted all the major storm headlines and I have a feeling this storm could turn out significantly worse (more powerful) as well as longer lasting.

[ANYWEATHER]

With such an unusually  deep area of low pressure its hard for the models to define exactly how severe the weather will be, afterall this is one of the deepest areas of low pressure near to the uk for nearly 130 years. Computer models have not gone down this road before!  

Edited December 22, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[knightrider]

just watched the latests bbc news forecast - didn't look as severe as some people making out on here

 

yes rainfall totals could be an issue -but away from coasts the winds didn't seem particularly out of the ordinary - for a winter storm that is anyway

Peter Gibbs did say 70mph gusts could get further inland for the South-East tomorrow evening if you where listening?

[Long haul to mild]

A few hours, where abouts where you?... St Jude came out went in barely half an hour here lol   And the top gust in my area was 53mph, MetO are forecasting mean winds of 40mph with 65-75mph gusts in my neck of the woods for the 9pm to midnight period tomorrow so higher gusts and lasting several hours!

Here in Ipswich, St Jude lasted for three hours (6am to 9am) and we had gusts up to 76mph. Forecast gusts for here tomorrow are about 65mph, so about 10mph less than back in October.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Ok kids bedtime :-)

[Long haul to mild]

St Jude was so overhyped especially when they tried to compare it to 1987 that was just embarrassing media sensationalism, a 50mph squall lasting not even an hour hardly constituted all the major storm headlines and I have a feeling this storm could turn out significantly worse (more powerful) as well as longer lasting.

St Jude was quite selective in where it hit; we were right in the path of the strengthening winds as it exited the country, so it was notable for us; just ask my fence and the local woodland, not to mention the power cables!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

St Jude was so overhyped especially when they tried to compare it to 1987 that was just embarrassing media sensationalism, a 50mph squall lasting not even an hour hardly constituted all the major storm headlines and I have a feeling this storm could turn out significantly worse (more powerful) as well as longer lasting.

The only feeling I got from St Jude was a light headed one! Presumably as the centre of the mistress passed directly above me literally. RAF Wittering recording 975mb. Was eerily calm, and clouds were visible rushing W-E towards the South and NNE-SW towards the North! WInds did not get much above 20mph throughout though.

Edited December 22, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[katemart]

St Jude was so overhyped especially when they tried to compare it to 1987 that was just embarrassing media sensationalism, a 50mph squall lasting not even an hour hardly constituted all the major storm headlines and I have a feeling this storm could turn out significantly worse (more powerful) as well as longer lasting.

 

Well, it may have been a squall lasting an hour in Essex, but it was considerably more than that on the South coast. There were lots of trees down and cars and houses smashed by falling trees. Fortunately the worst of it happened overnight and we all had plenty of warning. My fear today is that lots of people are not paying attention to anything but shopping and there will be a lot of inexperienced/tired/micturated drivers out on the roads than there ordinarily would. Add to that changes in the track of the low and we could be in for a rough time.

[knightrider]

Here in Ipswich, St Jude lasted for three hours (6am to 9am) and we had gusts up to 76mph. Forecast gusts for here tomorrow are about 65mph, so about 10mph less than back in October.

Yeah but your near the coast so I can understand why St Jude would have been worse for you perhaps, but here it wasn't anything that exceptional quite a sudden and intense squall but nowhere near the 80mph widespread storm they anticipated. That prediction of 65mph is all based on approximate estimates and the computer runs are probably still trying to catch up, I suspect it'll end up more powerful then that on the coast seeing as inland gusts around my area are predicted at 55-65mph.

[Summer Sun]

Ahead of the storm parts of Scotland have had snow today

 

A9 at Drumochter this morning

 

A9 southbound in Scotland

Edited December 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[karlos1983]

Tomorrow is going to bring a sustained period of very strong winds,with st.judes it was a couple of hours for the strongest winds, and the rain, especially in the south is going to deliver some very high totals.

[Buckster]

Peter Gibbs did say 70mph gusts could get further inland for the South-East tomorrow evening if you where listening?

 

70mph inland gusts - thats probably an event that happens every couple of years ? if not once a year ? so nothing particularly special

 

if we were talking 80-90mph gusts - then that would be of more concern - but thats not predicted is it ?

[ancientsolar]

Shortly after St Jude hit there was another storm which hit Wales hard! All trains were stopped in the Valleys, trees over the roads.. Caravan blown over on the M4, powercuts. I personally find it quite hard to estimate how strong the winds will be once they have funelled  through the valleys.Wind and rain both will cause a big impact here.

[knightrider]

Ahead of the storm parts of Scotland have had snow today

 

A9 at Drumochter this morning

 

A9 southbound in Scotland

Well at least it's going to be a white Christmas for some!

[Buckster]

wind warnings seem to be yellow on the metoffice website at the moment - Jude even though hit at night was amber even 3-4 days out wasn't it ?

[sunnijim]

Yes, a good point. The gusts are not likely to be as high as St Jude but that was just a few hours in most places as the system whizzed through the country. This is a good 12 hours of sustained wind and rain so not to be taken lightly. I will be glad when it's all over and am keeping fingers crossed that it won't be too damaging.

I think the maximum land gust for ST Jude was 81mph? I would be amazed if that figure was not equaled given the data we are seeing or even slightly exceeded around sussex and kent coastlines

[knightrider]

70mph inland gusts - thats probably an event that happens every couple of years ? if not once a year ? so nothing particularly special

 

if we were talking 80-90mph gusts - then that would be of more concern - but thats not predicted is it ?

No it isn't but then again 70mph inland gusts aren't a yearly event like you say they are quite rare, a once in 5 to 10 year return perhaps especially here in the SE which is the most sheltered corner of the country, it's probably quite common in the SW or up north but not here!

[Beaufort12]

I'm sorry I didn't realise this thread had been renamed St.Jude

[Snowyowl9]

With such an unusually  deep area of low pressure its hard for the models to define exactly how severe the weather will be, afterall this is one of the deepest areas of low pressure near to the uk for nearly 130 years. Computer models have not gone down this road before!  

Yes quite 930mbs is nothing to be casual about...this looks serious...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm481.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.html

Edited December 22, 2013 by Snowyowl9

[NickR]

Remember that the trees were in pretty much full leaf for the St Jude's storm. That makes a big difference in terms of how damaging a storm is, even if the winds are stronger.

[Essex Boy]

I don't know why the wind warning is yellow only and not amber.  Based on what peeps are saying and general agreement on models, surely it should be an amber wind warning for the South?