Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

[Eero Hermann]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-16.82,50.88,1024

[Matty M]

GFS 12z had dropped the feature for tomorrow on first inspection.

[Matty M]

Monday's storm looking dangerous on the latest GME output @ 72hrs

 

[The PIT]

GFS 12z had dropped the feature for tomorrow on first inspection.

Still there but lost the intensity.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Going to be a tough one to call tomorrow. Going to be one of those days which could catch forecasts out if it develops more than shown.

[Matty M]

Yes tomorrow's feature will need constant monitoring, as could decide to develop or not. One to pay close attention to.

[Skullzrulerz]

Yes tomorrow's feature will need constant monitoring, as could decide to develop or not. One to pay close attention to.

You're right on that thats for sure.

[Richie V]

Bbc weather guy at 13:30 said there could be a period of severe gales tomorrow eve over west wales and northern england.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I remember an example a few years back now when the Metoffice expected it to be just a normal windy day with strong to gale force W'ly winds in exposure. What actually transpired was a wind which was strong enough to blow part of the roof of my grandparent's stables off and bring trees down. These features need constant monitoring.

[Summer Sun]

Weather warnings for Christmas run-up

 

Wet and windy weather is set to continue across the UK in the run-up to Christmas.

 

As BBC Weather's John Hammond reports, there are indications of likely travel disruption and early weather warnings are in force for Monday and Christmas Eve.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25467546

[Richie V]

Yes crewe, like surprise snow events, the wind ones tend to pop up even more. Hey, I enjoyed that epic battle of words you had with JH in the model output thread the other day

[Mapantz]

The GFS still shows a wave but not as potent, it may weaken even more by tomorrow. Judging by the lack of warnings, I would have thought that it will be very windy on coasts but not enough to warrant concern.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Mapantz

[mountain shadow]

Crikey.. Getting into the reliable timeframe, and 928mb low just of the NW of Scotland.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131220/12/93/airpressure.png

[Mokidugway]

Crikey.. Getting into the reliable timeframe, and 928mb low just of the NW of Scotland.http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131220/12/93/airpressure.png

surely that would be the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the uk ! .....

[cheese]

Crikey.. Getting into the reliable timeframe, and 928mb low just of the NW of Scotland.http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131220/12/93/airpressure.png

What an insane area of low pressure. I can't imagine how much damage would occur from that!

[Eskimo]

925.6mb at Ochertyre, near Crieff, Perthshire on the 26th January 1884.

Was the lowest ever recorded

[Richie V]

Not sure if I should 'like' the above ^ that's a brute ok!

i say bring it, it is about time the atlantic proved it is a real man.

[Mapantz]

i say bring it, it is about time the atlantic proved it is a real man.

Haha - I wish no loss of life or damage property but I do relish these storms, especially living near the south coast, if they're going to happen, then I will embrace it.

[Mokidugway]

925.6mb at Ochertyre, near Crieff, Perthshire on the 26th January 1884.

Was the lowest ever recorded

yes did some looking, some interesting historical depressions got down to 913 , 916 mb mid atlantic , amazing !!....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-23.09,50.40,1024

 

Lord have mercy... 

[Eskimo]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-23.09,50.40,1024

 

Lord have mercy... 

That doesn't look right, we are certainly not seeing 50mph winds here in Hull, and I'm sure Western Ireland is not experiencing 90mph winds. 

This is what people need to look at.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.14,53.88,1024

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That doesn't look right, we are certainly not seeing 50mph winds here in Hull, and I'm sure Western Ireland is not experiencing 90mph winds. 

This is what people need to look at.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.14,53.88,1024

 

My bad sorry I was on the wrong hPa 

[Eskimo]

Go on 10hpa, that has wigged me out big time!

[Coast]

I know people think weather is centred on London and the SE, but run the current Met O 5 day for somewhere down here and you'll see some worrying potential next week - it's much in line with other sources at the moment.

 

I've picked the following to show the highest point of the current run and it's damn gusty.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/hastings-east-sussex#?tab=map&fcTime=1387810800&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=0.45&lat=51.52

 

I have to say I've not seen gusts projected by the Met O like this all year and this is currently running higher than St Jude's in these parts:

 

 

Luckily this is in the middle of the night, lets hope it backs down from the current projections.

[Sainsbo]

 

Very scary looking chart - I'm guessing the GFS HR doesn't go below 935mb, but look how big the area with a lower pressure than that is!