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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

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The models are starting to indicate that the Christmas period could once again be stormy or very stormy for many in the UK with gusty wind and rain that we seem to becoming accustom to recently.

 

This thread gives an opportunity to discuss your thoughts and forecasts for the two days of Christmas (and just beyond) as many people will be making arrangements to travel at this time.

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So what's the thinking here?  A lot of people I've spoken to on here seem to think it's going to pass right over the Midlands meaning anything on it's southern flank over the south of England is going to take a battering but then again most of the weather websites reports predict it to pass closer to Scotland keeping the strongest winds up north, whatever the outcome I'm sure the next few days are going to be interesting to see how it develops as we watch for it's track and intensity!

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I can see the headlines in the tabloids.. Christ'MASS' destruction..!!

And Britain knocked out on boxing day..

Lol there'll be a 3 page spread in The Daily Express no doubt!  Posted Image

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latest gfs  keeps the theme going for wild weather christmas and boxing day  showing a 945  low 

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I can see the headlines in the tabloids.. Christ'MASS' destruction..!!

And Britain knocked out on boxing day..

You heard it here first folks.....

Any newspapers stealing these quotes will be struck by lightning!!Posted Image

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A perfect fit, covering the whole of Europe and Iceland and even part of Greenland.

 

now THAT is what you call a low pressure system..all be it there there are 2 distinct systems wrapped up in here

 

Posted Image

Edited by EML Network
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A perfect fit, covering the whole of Europe and Iceland and even part of Greenland.

 

now THAT is what you call a low pressure system..all be it there there are 2 distinct systems wrapped up in here

 

Posted Image

WOW looks huge, still looks as if northern parts will be hit hardest though as is usually the case!

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Have to say on current output, things look pretty gusty. GFS animated up to Boxing day morning for sustained wind and gusts:

 

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Posted Image

 

There's a tonne of rain there just as you want to walk off that Christmas dinner (or miss the Queens speech)

 

Posted Image

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Have to say on current output, things look pretty gusty. GFS animated up to Boxing day morning for sustained wind and gusts:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

There's a tonne of rain there just as you want to walk off that Christmas dinner (or miss the Queens speech)

 

Posted Image

Looks like it takes a swipe at the south on those model runs.

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Have to say on current output, things look pretty gusty. GFS animated up to Boxing day morning for sustained wind and gusts:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

There's a tonne of rain there just as you want to walk off that Christmas dinner (or miss the Queens speech)

 

Posted Image

Boxing day last year I was fitting a new TV ariel, looks like I may be doing the same this year!

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This is how GEM currently has things for Christmas day

 

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And boxing day

 

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ECM Christmas day

 

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Boxing day

 

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GFS Christmas day

 

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Boxing day

 

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I think considering this potential stormy spell is still a week away that maybe it was a little bit early to open a new thread about it, especially with the main focus still being on the weather we've got to get through between now and the weekend.

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I think considering this potential stormy spell is still a week away that maybe it was a little bit early to open a new thread about it, especially with the main focus still being on the weather we've got to get through between now and the weekend.

 

Why? they are either going to downgrade this or upgrade. Nothing wrong with advanced discussions and model watching which is essentially what this is. Think when u look at the potential above, not surprised coast opened a new thread for it.

 

I must admit a stormy xmas has been on the cards for more than a few days. so we are not far out of FI being the 23rd 2 more days and is in reliable time frame!!!!!!

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I think considering this potential stormy spell is still a week away that maybe it was a little bit early to open a new thread about it, especially with the main focus still being on the weather we've got to get through between now and the weekend.

 

People will be looking at this 'special time' for information and guidance to help plan journeys etc. Models are a little early admittedly, but currently indicative of some quite stormy events and it's certainly worthwhile perusing the trends and possibilities from this far out - even 7 days away :good: 

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People will be looking at this 'special time' for information and guidance to help plan journeys etc. Models are a little early admittedly, but currently indicative of some quite stormy events and it's certainly worthwhile perusing the trends and possibilities from this far out - even 7 days away Posted Image

I agree there's nothing wrong with discussing possibilities well in advance I just think that maybe it could have waited until Sunday when we've got through the first couple of storm systems first! 

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I agree there's nothing wrong with discussing possibilities well in advance I just think that maybe it could have waited until Sunday when we've got through the first couple of storm systems first! 

Given that we are talking about Christmas and Boxing Day and there will be lots of people making important family journeys the more we know the better prepared we can be. There are multiple threads talking about lots of different things on this forum I don't see what the problem is. You don't have to look at the thread if you don't want to.

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I agree there's nothing wrong with discussing possibilities well in advance I just think that maybe it could have waited until Sunday when we've got through the first couple of storm systems first!

I disagree, when output across the models shows such activity, it can only help plan.I for one am moving a boat from manchester to London starting tommorow( probably 11 x 10 hour days) and any indication of extreme weather helps me plan stops and estimated delivery time. .....and how many waterproof layerd to wear!!!!
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Yes, it's a good idea to open the thread early IMHO. It's clearly labeled as Xmas / Boxing Day, so shouldn't cause any confusion. :)

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I think Christmas Eve should have been included in this topic! Over those 3 days there looks likely to be Low Pressures spinning around eachother.. like a Multivortex Tornado!How often do we see such "Deep" Low Pressure systems on our shores?  

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GFS 12Z downgrades the storm potential somewhat. Will undoubtedly chop and change to a degree.

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I think Christmas Eve should have been included in this topic! Over those 3 days there looks likely to be Low Pressures spinning around eachother.. like a Multivortex Tornado!How often do we see such "Deep" Low Pressure systems on our shores?  

Not too often so close together I should imagine!

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GFS 12Z downgrades the storm potential somewhat. Will undoubtedly chop and change to a degree.

 

The low seems to have taken a route up the Channel on the overnight run:

 

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BoB coming in for the worst of it:

 

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Maybe something for Channel coasts first thing on Boxing day?

 

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I would have no problem with that at all, May be wet but at least safe for people to travel, unless there's enough cold to the east for snow, which I wouldn't mind either.

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