Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[UV-RAY]

Gosh I am so sick of having to read posts about the perpetual storms when there are hints of colder weather for January in the output, oh wait. 

 

What is the obsession with people wanting to dictate what part of the MO should or should not be discussed?

Don't you have your car park attendant and traffic warden jobs to got to?

 

Read what you're interested in and skip the rest or better still post about the part of the output that interests you.

I wouldn't mind but there are dedicated threads for such things if that is all you are interested in, try here for a start;

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78846-severe-atlantic-storms-over-the-christmas-period-2/

 

Then there are the regional threads and others.

 

Nothing annoys me more than people trying to dictate what others should post about, what gives you the right?

Let the mods moderate and exercise your right of choice as to what you read and don't read, it's that simple.

 

Mods I expect this to be deleted but I had to get that off my chest before my head exploded!

+1

[Dibdabbers]

It is certainly not mild today! I have just driven through rain turning to hail turning to sleet and then wet snow. Some people have a strange definition of the word mild on here.

[simshady]

Yes, the word mild is largely subjective but the weather at the moment is not mild. Some people use the word mild to further their weather agenda.

[winterof79]

The scariest thing is that we are one of the coldest places in Europe, but we are only just below average ourselves. Shocking for our neighbours on the continent 

Let's hope we get a pattern change soon, or they will have to invent new winter sports 

Ski resorts seem ok

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/24/basis06/euro/weas/13122606_2406.gif

[Nick L]

"Model Output Discussion" - stay on topic please folks

[lorenzo]

Nice looking MJO Plot from the UKMA - control run and UKME - Ensemble run (shaded).

 

 

ECM still not keen on the 6-7-8 orbit, perhaps reflected in the latest weekly? GEFS however is.

 

 

Phase 6 analogs

 

Phase 7 analogs

 

And if UKMO delivers on it's projection with a sustained period of time in Phase 8, analog has a significant ridge which may be the straw that breaks the camels back as far as the vortex is concerned..

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2013 by lorenzo

[J10]

In terms of the Ski Resorts, it hadn't been the best of Decembers, but snow retention has been pretty good and there was moderate to heavy snow at the start of last weekend, more especially over western resorts, giving much more of a snowy feel.

 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full is the latest update and of course you can always look at the dedicated Alps snow thread for regular updates.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78125-the-alps-snow-thread-season-2013-14/page-5

 

Going forward moderate snowfalls are expected over the next few days for medium higher slopes.

[nick sussex]

Ham done, mince pies made, trying to explain to my French neighbours the joy of mince pies, fail!!! 40 Euros for a  3 kilo Turkey! did it come with an armed escort! apparently it's organic and was happily enjoying life in the Landes before the axe fell!

 

My final gripe, why oh why do some people insist  that Winter starts on the 21st December, this Americanism needs to be ended!

 

Back to the models, lets hope for  a festive dose of trough disruption around day 8 to the west, if that happens then that will certainly put coldies in a very happy mood myself included, I should just be thankful that the dreaded Pyrenees funnel effect didn't come to fruition here although there were some very severe winds further into the Pyrenees.

 

 

For newbies just to elaborate on this trough disruption, the PV in Canada is expected to edge nw before then spawning another low which will head east, the green area is the crucial part, we need to see a stronger ridge there and the removal of those very low heights shown in the purple.

 

If this happens then the ridge can put some pressure on the low to disrupt, basically lose some energy this then will force a shortwave to run se, this then drains away some of the oomph behind the low, the quickest way to something cold within T240hrs is for this to happen, as that energy shears away it supports the ridge to the north, you must not get the low over the UK phasing with the upstream one, if that happens then you'll need longer to get to something colder.

Edited December 24, 2013 by nick sussex

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

well now i see  f1  now  going  chuck  at us rain,floods  in Jan by the constant  rain now  its  snow from  the 4th  to  the 8  jan  !!!!!

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks Lorenzo, I wonder why you show low amplitude, phase 6 and 7. UKMO and GFS show high amplitude (>1). Does it make a big difference?

 

Thanks!

[MR EXTREMES]

_{gfs looks like a nightmare already with the low joining and the bloody azores heights to our south.}

[pip22]

 

The 12z GFS is showing the Friday's storm tracking over Scotland and bringing severe gales/storm force winds for Northern England and NI.

Edited December 24, 2013 by pip22

[Mucka]

 

The 12z GFS is showing the Friday's storm tracking over Scotland and bringing severe gales/storm force winds for Northern England and NI.

 

Looks awful but my feeling is that it has slowly been moderated and moved North over the last couple of days or so - still looks nasty though.

 

GFS 12z 144h

Looks okay as regards the stalling low but not sure whether things look so good upstream for a decent ridge with that low forming to the SW of Greenland

 

 

168h looking pretty good, we could do with ECM showing something similar this evening.

 

Edited December 24, 2013 by Mucka

[karyo]

The weak ridge east of Greenland at 168 hours is a bit of an improvement compared to the 6z!

 

After that it gets rather messy with some trough disruption and some weak high pressure to the north/northeast. Not perfect but an interesting trend!

 

Karyo

Edited December 24, 2013 by karyo

[shaky]

Much better gfd 12z and ukmo 12z!!will the ecm finally come on board though!!seems to be taking forever.

[bluearmy]

i do like a cold scandi ridge. (as opposed to the warm ones we've seen so far). before anyone links to the late '62 chart, yes i know its similar in that regard. wonder what happens now in low res. 

[Mucka]

i do like a cold scandi ridge. (as opposed to the warm ones we've seen so far). before anyone links to the late '62 chart, yes i know its similar in that regard. wonder what happens now in low res. 

 

It highlights the potential for some heavy snowfall in messy, cold zonal, marginal conditions and for more prominent blocking later.

 

Best low res Op run of the Winter?

Edited December 24, 2013 by Mucka

[That ECM]

I like the GFS showing cold in FI all be it in different ways. It usually means a change is a foot. It's just the detail that's unknown. Let it continue and move closer please.

[bluearmy]

gfs 12z op embraces many of the fi themes we've been banging on about for the past couple of days but i suspect goes a bit nuts once it drops the troughing into europe.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

FI = Magic !

[Methuselah]

I think I'll just keep an open mind...On matters FI, ignorance is bliss!

[That ECM]

gfs 12z op embraces many of the fi themes we've been banging on about for the past couple of days but i suspect goes a bit nuts once it drops the troughing into europe.

You may well be right but we like nuts, it's christmas.

[Mucka]

You may well be right but we like nuts, it's christmas.

 

Yes, and crackers!

 

GEM certainly not so good. UKMO is middling.

GFS is probably over progressive with sinking the trough and developing a ridge but let's hope it is leading the way.

We are due a good ECM aren't we?

[karyo]

Much better gfd 12z and ukmo 12z!!will the ecm finally come on board though!!seems to be taking forever.

I don't agree about the UKMO - I think it is underwhelming.

 

Karyo

[That ECM]

I don't agree about the UKMO - I think it is underwhelming. Karyo

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/50/gfsnh-0-144_sjb5.pnghttp://images.meteociel.fr/im/2613/UN144-21_lqp6.GIFIt maybe that it is a bit slower than the GFS and not as progressive rather than underwhelming?