Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[bluearmy]

Not much to say tis morning apart from 'as you were' from last night. I notice posters continue to pay too much attention to fi ops detail with no ens support.

Looking at the ECM mean out to day 10 and the gfs trend to raise a well defined Atlantic ridge at day 8 may be progressive. Us under a renewed trough at that point looks a good call. Shallow upper ridge into eastern Greenland area being replenished from nw scandi will keep the jet suppressed but how far south is the question. The Canadian vortex looks to send another burst of low heights into the Atlantic early in the new year. How that interacts with the AH and the shallow greeny ridge will dictate the run up to mid month. no reason to think that the view from last night is under question.

Edited December 24, 2013 by bluearmy

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Not much to say tis morning apart from 'as you were' from last night. I notice posters continue to pay too much attention to fi ops detail with no ens support.Looking at the ECM mean out to day 10 and the gfs trend to raise a well defined Atlantic ridge at day 8 may be progressive. Us under a renewed trough at that point looks a good call. Shallow upper ridge into eastern Greenland area being replenished from nw scandi will keep the jet suppressed but how far south is the question. The Canadian vortex looks to send another burst of low heights into the Atlantic early in the new year. How that interacts with the AH and the shallow greeny ridge will dictate the run up to mid month. no reason to think that the view from last night is under question.

Hmmm,not much interest in high res if its cold your after so the natural thing to do would be to look into FI?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html

Thats the ecm mean at 144,its not FI,and it ain't pretty.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

ECM mean at 240,again,strong PV to the north west and Hp cells across southern Europe.

Im not suggesting things wont change but if its cold your after its bleak,no dressing it up any other way.

And the EC32 paints a  zonal picture until mid Jan.

The only postive i can see this morning is in the strat thread.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

[snowking]

Hmmm,not much interest in high res if its cold your after so the natural thing to do would be to look into FI?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html

Thats the ecm mean at 144,its not FI,and it ain't pretty.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

ECM mean at 240,again,strong PV to the north west and Hp cells across southern Europe.

Im not suggesting things wont change but if its cold your after its bleak,no dressing it up any other way.

And the EC32 paints a  very very zonal picture until mid Jan.

The only postive i can see this morning is in the strat thread.

Might be best to take a hemispheric view of things at +144

 

 

The pattern across the Arctic is fairly encouraging. Nothing spectacular but for the mean of 51 separate runs to create such ridging in to Greenland at day 6 provides more interest than of late.

 

It is fairly fruitless taking mean charts at face value out to 10 days away, especially when the 'lack of detail' on our side of the hemisphere due to the noise from conflicting signals is pretty apparent:

 

 

If I were to look at that from an optimists point of view I would say there is a tendency shown there for low pressure to be reluctant to move too far past the Western top of Greenland, evident by the comma shape of the progged mean low with some weak ridging in to Greenland once again. Though I would agree you could also look from a pessimists point of view of a mean trough stuck to the North-West of the UK. But as the spreads by that stage show:

 

 

There is a lot of uncertainty still for our locale and just to the North-West of us. Overall as BA initially stated the renewed mean trough solution over us by day 10 looks a good call, but it is the wider pattern that still holds more promise. Of course we need to reel that in to the nearer timeframe still but plenty of be optimistic about in towards the middle of January.

 

Nothing especially wintry within the 10 day timeframe but I think that has been a given for some time now. It's now a case of trying to set up a better profile to our North and North-West to give us something of more interest next month.

 

SK

[Timmytour]

GFS 6z....Friday's storm heading a touch further south east but not as potent?

[IDO]

The CFS monthly for January has been trending away from zonal on the latest runs. It agrees with BA and SK, with respect to a UK mean trough, strong heights over the Arctic/Siberia and a mean GH:

 

 

So certainly potential in that setup for more wintry outbreaks, more so than the current zonal pattern.

Edited December 24, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

Actually, there are signs of cold..when you look through the GEFS 00z perturbations there are some stonking charts for coldies and i'm sure there will be hints of wintry weather from other models too.. so I would say don't despair coldies, cold weather with snow could pop up into the early part of next year, nobody knows what's around the corner once the current stormy pattern ends, we could have high pressure building to the northeast or the northwest by mid Jan, check out these charts, P6 & P9 are EPIC..the cold and snow will come next month.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The CFS monthly for January has been trending away from zonal on the latest runs. It agrees with BA and SK, with respect to a UK mean trough, strong heights over the Arctic/Siberia and a mean GH:

 

cfsnh-2-1-2014.png cfsnh-0-1-2014.png

 

So certainly potential in that setup for more wintry outbreaks, more so than the current zonal pattern.

No GH there that i can see?

[IDO]

No GH there that i can see?

 

 

Sorry, more like mean Greenland Heights: 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Sorry, more like mean Greenland Heights: cfsnh-2-1-2014.png

Hmmm thats not high pressure to be honest.

You need to see oranges or reds or light greens up there for it to be 'genuine' high pressure.

Basically its Low pressure.

[tinybill]

after last  night storm  a  little Xmas  present for the coldies!!!  i  know its  f1 

 

 

happy Xmas  and new year

[IDO]

Hmmm thats not high pressure to be honest.You need to see oranges or reds or light greens up there for it to be 'genuine' high pressure.Basically its Low pressure.

That's a thirty day mean chart, you will be lucky to see oranges or reds on one of those unless you are looking at the Sahara Desert.

 

Mean Anomaly chart for Jan:   Higher than normal heights over Greenland.

Edited December 24, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[MPG]

Sorry, more like mean Greenland Heights: cfsnh-2-1-2014.png

 

 

Hmmm thats not high pressure to be honest.

You need to see oranges or reds or light greens up there for it to be 'genuine' high pressure.

Basically its Low pressure.

Just a surface high, its there all the time except when true HP moves in with the greens oranges etc

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just a surface high, its there all the time except when true HP moves in with the greens oranges etc

 

Yeah surface HIGH , lol @ 1025 low pressure

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yeah surface HIGH , lol @ 1025 low pressure

It is LOW pressure.

That's a thirty day mean chart, you will be lucky to see oranges or reds on one of those unless you are looking at the Sahara Desert.

 

Mean Anomaly chart for Jan:  cfsnh-3-1-2014.png

I can see plenty of yellow and oranges around the azores i'll give you that...

[bluearmy]

i am wondering if we may need a model discussion thread for those who cannot and , more importantly, dont want to read the output.  some are spoiling it for those who wish to learn.  i'm dreaming - dont despair maybe  referencing upper ridge might satisfy the pedants. it is not a true greeny high but then we did fairly well post mid jan last year with no strong blocking up there.)!

 

here are the day 15 ecm ens charts to illustrate possible direction of travel. they are consistent over the past 48 hours

 

       

Edited December 24, 2013 by bluearmy

[snowmadchrisuk]

It is LOW pressure.

I can see plenty of yellow and oranges around the azores i'll give you that...

How can a surface high be low pressure, besides mean chart's just show at day 10 mean distribution , as another poster said your unlikely to see oranges on them a day 10 . 

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4267/gfsnh-0-174_mjh5.png

Now this would be a nice trend.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

How can a surface high be low pressure, besides mean chart's just show at day 10 mean distribution , as another poster said your unlikely to see oranges on them a day 10 . 

A surface high is not genuine high pressure chris.

BA,lets agree to disagree.

Im punting for zonal for the forseeable looking at the data to hand.

[bluearmy]

A surface high is not genuine high pressure chris.

BA,lets agree to disagree.

Im punting for zonal for the forseeable looking at the data to hand.

 

did i say blocked HD ? i'm not averse to zonal in the broadest terms, but as the jet looks to take a nw/se axis towards the back end of week 2, that allows for plenty of options.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GFS wants to throw a load of WAA into Greenland and ridging looks possible. Interesting run this is.

Edited December 24, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Tim Bland]

GFS wants to throw a load of WAA into Greenland and ridging looks possible. Interesting run this is.

 

Im not that impressed byt the 06z GFS to be honest. yes there are some weak surface highs and shallow atlantic ridges but not enough for any widespread wintry weather. I think the best we can hope for is some brief PM incursions following as each Low pressure passes. Could be a good new year for the scottish ski resorts but elswhere the slow start to winter continues! Hopefully things will change as we move into the new year

 

Merry christmas everyone!

Edited December 24, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Frank Trough]

i am wondering if we may need a model discussion thread for those who cannot and , more importantly, dont want to read the output.  some are spoiling it for those who wish to learn.  i'm dreaming - dont despair maybe  referencing upper ridge might satisfy the pedants. it is not a true greeny high but then we did fairly well post mid jan last year with no strong blocking up there.)!

 

here are the day 15 ecm ens charts to illustrate possible direction of travel. they are consistent over the past 48 hours

 

eps_z500a_eur_61.png   eps_mslpa_eur_61.png       eps_uv200_eur_61.png

 

likewise the same can be said about those only looking at cold in FI. The country has/is being battered by storms and yet there has been precious little discussion about anything inside the reliable timeframe of late. I'm not feeling very charitable this morning after last night and discovering the water that leaked down our chimney!

 

So, in the reliable there is nothing but more wind and rain which are going to cause more problems. Fridays low looks a little less intense further south but still looking bad further north.

 

 

There are some very serious issues to still to come with flooding and damage to trees/property at what is not the ideal time of the year. Let's not overlook that. 

 

In the meantime while we wait for it to snow in FI December and one third of winter has gone. Certain posters got lambasted for suggesting a trend to zonal was likely (although not necessarily showing in the output) in early December while constant cold searching is applauded. The only difference so far is that the zonal has verified. 

Edited December 24, 2013 by New Forest Gump

[IDO]

A surface high is not genuine high pressure chris.

BA,lets agree to disagree.

Im punting for zonal for the forseeable looking at the data to hand.

 

Semantics aside, if it quacks like a duck, and that was my reasoning; more as blocking heights, diverting the vortex lows more in a SE direction to build the UK/Euro trough. Of course mean Greenland Heights does not mean we will see daily Greenland High synoptics!!!

[Paul]

Stop bickering people, it's frustrating enough at other times of year, but to bicker and point score about weather charts on xmas eve is even more ridiculous!

[Ali1977]

I think it's best to look at the ens with all these storms around, things can change lots in a small timeframe on one run, so maybe trends are better to follow. And the ens trend is steadily getting colder, on the 00z anyway.