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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

PS: watch for potential bolstering of snow signal in S for some on Thursday based on v latest output.... more to follow. Coldies: keep the faith ;-)

Ian is it something in relation to this circled? I'm sure even a temporary covering would be welcome given the lack of anything so far for more southern areas.

 

post-1206-0-14874600-1387317411_thumb.gi

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

PS: watch for potential bolstering of snow signal in S for some on Thursday based on v latest output.... more to follow. Coldies: keep the faith ;-)

Very interesting Ian , are we looking at organised trough's or just shower activity ?!Thurs definitely has potential to deliver a few surprises !Edit: just read your last post , thanks . Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

regarding a possible feature running w-e on thursday. it could well throw up something unexpected over the hills but this is the point many have made re next week. with thicknesses and pressure even lower than thursday, the possibilities of disturbances running w-e in the flow and encountering cold air to their north will probably give two or perhaps three chances of decent upland snowfall in n england and especially scotland. it is december after all!

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

 Wholly agree. And lest us forget that the Burns Day Storm was demonstrable (and tragic) evidence enough of just what type of 'other' extreme weather can be categorised as genuine winter fare. This upcoming week is a fascinating one - every bit as unusual and infrequent, in a broad historical timeline, as the varied deep cold set-ups craved by some folk. Whilst the latter scenario has currently zero signal in *present* model output, it's surely worth indulging interest in the here-and-now, because it's not a common scenario we see unfolding for Christmas week and will, for some, prove surely newsworthy for all the wrong reasons.

 

I was wondering about that - it cannot be very often that the actual vortex is pushed as far south as to cover the British Isles. The  time in December 2010, it was a lobe from the NE which brought the cold side to us - I've been looking at a lot of the winter charts in the archives, I don't remember seeing too many situations like what is modelled.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

More: shortwave running E across from West Country through S'rn-central England later Thurs afternoon into evening. Both UKMO-GM and Euro4 paint it; WBFL down to 400m by then. Being watched with great interest in next runs. It would bring snow down to the deck over just moderately high ground given progged PPN rates (Cotswolds; Marlborough Downs; Chilterns etc)... will advise as we see more on this in next high-res output.

hi fergie!!is there any chance further north across the midlands for e.g.!!Thanks
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

@Fergieweather.

 

I note the NAE dangerous outlook for tomorrow evening over northwest Ireland with a swathe of sustained 70mph just off the coast of Mayo.

Any word on this in MetO HQ?

 

GFS is having completely none of it.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

I was wondering about that - it cannot be very often that the actual vortex is pushed as far south as to cover the British Isles. The  time in December 2010, it was a lobe from the NE which brought the cold side to us - I've been looking at a lot of the winter charts in the archives, I don't remember seeing too many situations like what is modelled.

I totally agree, I love my cold weather but this week shows some unusual potential for something different to start us off for the new year. The overall pattern is wanting to change in FI ever so slightly and still got faith in this winter Posted Image
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

 That's the critter...

 

This is why I still hold interest even if charts show unrelenting weather systems coming in from the Atlantic. There are always little surprises that can crop up to keep everyone on their toes! Now I don't expect any snow here where I live, but will be interesting to see if parts of higher ground in the Cotswold's end up with something from that potential shortwave, as it is not far from here! :)

 

Main story though looks to be wind and rain for now!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

hi fergie!!is there any chance further north across the midlands for e.g.!!Thanks

Hi Shaky, appreciate the somewhat unexpected spectre of snow for some on thursday, but this is the model thread after all. To save a plethora of 'will it snow in xxxxxxxx?" can you repost in the relevant regional thread or winter discussion thread please Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Hi Shaky, appreciate the somewhat unexpected spectre of snow for some on thursday, but this is the model thread after all. To save a plethora of 'will it snow in xxxxxxxx?" can you repost in the relevant regional thread or winter discussion thread please Posted Image

no problemo sir!!sorry I got a bit of a bad habit doing this especially if someone mentions snow that is forecasted in the near future!!excitement goes over the roof!!lol
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

no problemo sir!!sorry I got a bit of a bad habit doing this especially if someone mentions snow that is forecasted in the near future!!excitement goes over the roof!!lol

 

I mentioned the chance of snow ages ago :D

 

 

UKMO has -4 uppers for a lot of the UK throughout Thursday - snow possible over higher ground.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Popped up on the 18Z NAE, its definitely the thing to watch for Thursday! Very difficult to forecast and going to be headache!Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

Just for fun, but the 18z gives us this little feature on Christmas Day that pulls in cold air quickly behind it and with intense precipitation, has wintry potential. Not to be taken too seriously at this range though

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

This would be nice

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121718/gfs-0-168.png?18

 

A similar scenario xmas day to what Ian is highlighting for Thurs-

 

S

 

A festive christmas eve for some.Posted Image 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

This would be nice

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121718/gfs-0-168.png?18

 

A similar scenario xmas day to what Ian is highlighting for Thurs-

 

S

 

5th Jan 1998 style shortwave/low, gave me loads of snow

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Just to add, the 18z GFS has also picked up on this shortwave trough...less pronounced than the hi-res NAE output, but the signal is still there, T850's are marginal, 500-1000hpa thickness is just about ok, 850hpa thickness's are the just scraping marginality, dewpoints and WB temps wrong side of marginal, but remember this is but one output so the key message is that the potential is there....As Ian posted, some elevation will be the key..

 

A few charts at T45 to illustrate...

 

post-4149-0-32673100-1387319410_thumb.pn post-4149-0-28684600-1387319422_thumb.pn

 

post-4149-0-22947400-1387319438_thumb.pn post-4149-0-19129200-1387319450_thumb.pn

 

post-4149-0-90075900-1387319467_thumb.pn

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=1&PERIOD=&WMO 1300 DAM @ 850 MB on the NAE is slightly the wrong side of marinal, however some dynamic cooling could see some action!S

steve have we ever seen snow fall at 1300 dam before?
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