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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


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Really do admire frostys enthusiasm. But at the moment all I can see is more storms with heavy rainfall. How many fi charts have we seen showing something more seasonal only for it to be gone. I would bet that what the 06z run showed will be totally different on this evening runs. I feel we will be seeing something akin to 2005 this winter. With us waiting till at least mid jan at the earliest. Until then more rain and gales I'm afraid but at least we're all saving on our heating lol.

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Meto long range not buying into the latest model changes unfortunately

Yet..and the way I see it, the very low heights to the northwest around greenland/iceland will moderate early part of next year with the pv transfering east which will enable height rises to the northwest, this is what some of the models have been hinting at and I expect this signal to strengthen as the stormy outlook slowly eases. :-)
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Really do admire frostys enthusiasm. But at the moment all I can see is more storms with heavy rainfall. How many fi charts have we seen showing something more seasonal only for it to be gone. I would bet that what the 06z run showed will be totally different on this evening runs. I feel we will be seeing something akin to 2005 this winter. With us waiting till at least mid jan at the earliest. Until then more rain and gales I'm afraid but at least we're all saving on our heating lol.

And for the most part he's been right. I think you maybe need to view the models again as they look nothing like those from 2005.
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Meto long range not buying into the latest model changes unfortunately

To be expected.

The METO wont change their outlook until they see strong evidence of  a pattern change.

NAO look to be going negative during the weekend and into early Jan

 

Posted Image

 

The AO update is very clear in which way its going, negative

 

Posted Image

You posted the AO twice Gav. :D

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And for the most part he's been right. I think you maybe need to view the models again as they look nothing like those from 2005.

Step 1 for us is to get rid of that god awful slug of high pressure across Southern Europe,once we get Low Pressure into France/Italy then the door opens for us.After that we need a bit of luck upstream,ive got my fingers toes and knees crossed! :D

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Step 1 for us is to get rid of that god awful slug of high pressure across Southern Europe,once we get Low Pressure into France/Italy then the door opens for us.After that we need a bit of luck upstream,ive got my fingers toes and knees crossed! :D

Who are you man in disguise???!!
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I know we've got some pretty potent stormy weather to contend with but there looks to be some serious snowfall due over the Alps on Boxing day!

 

Supposed to get over a meter of snow in the alps tomorrow and Wednesday too !? I will be there so looking forward to it ! Sorry for off topic

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Very complex but slack areas of low pressure milling around at 180+ on the 12z gfs.not sure where this will go as the whole thing wont move sse!Posted Imagehere we go at 204 hrs.looks better regarding blocking than the 6z btw

Edited by swfc
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The 12z gfs low res in broadly similar to the 06z but the AH ridges further north and takes the jet with it. note the behaviour of the deep low off the canadian coast. cant get past the s greenland tip. thats a good sign but can we trust fi ops on such detail ??

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Well well, 12z has the vortex weakening considerably once again with the AO going negative and tentative signs the NAO might want to follow. Increasing signs that the January pattern change cometh. Look where we were 2 weeks ago.......much better charts over the past couple of days- though not unexpected TBH.

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Well well, 12z has the vortex weakening considerably once again with the AO going negative and tentative signs the NAO might want to follow. Increasing signs that the January pattern change cometh. Look where we were 2 weeks ago.......much better charts over the past couple of days- though not unexpected TBH.

Yes GFS has continued with its idea of southerly tracking lows which is great to see.

I'd like to see ECM follow suit before getting carried away but thats two gfs op runs taking a similar route.

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Continued evidence that change may be afoot!

 

Current state of the northern hemisphere:

 

Posted Image

Some northern blocking evident, nothing major though, menacing looking PV nonetheless...

 

 

Then, the strato forecast looking good...Chance for a pattern change?

 

Posted Image

Allow for the lag time...

 

Posted Image

 

BOOM BABY!

 

Of course, it's unlikely to be as straightforward as this, but it does provide evidence once more that the state of the stratosphere is incredibly important; disruption in the strat can lead to a -NAO, smash apart the PV and give us our real chance of some prolonged cold Posted Image

Edited by weatherguy
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Yes GFS has continued with its idea of southerly tracking lows which is great to see.

I'd like to see ECM follow suit before getting carried away but thats two gfs op runs taking a similar route.

 

I suspect we'll start to see the ECM give us some nice hints within the next couple of days. Looks loaded for a cold January and has for some time.

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Continued evidence that change may be afoot!

 

The  strato forecast looking good... 

 

 

Allow for the lag time...

 

 

 

BOOM BABY!

 

Of course, it's unlikely to be as straightforward as this, but it does provide evidence once more that the state of the stratosphere is incredibly important; disruption in the strat can lead to a -NAO, smash apart the PV and give us our real chance of some prolonged cold Posted Image

 

As I said last week, timing was always going to be important. The vortex looks like it may be tested on two fronts simultaneously.....which is what we want to see. A repeat of the Pacific ridging we saw end of Nov + some decent warming, (two factors which aren't linked IMO), look to collude if the GFS is anything to put stock in.

 

As short a time as 2 days ago people were 'writing off' January. Now it looks like we have some potential showing

Edited by CreweCold
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the focus is still on cold prospects in FI (which is understandable) but before we get there the GFS is relentlessly stormy and very wet. Some really awful charts for the north of england/scotland on tuesday before we see another deep low hit us on friday. and the then on sunday the GFS picks up this nastly little fellow:

Posted Image

 

We the see another little depression push up into the southeast on monday:

 

Posted Image

 

 

some really nasty weather still to come before there's any chance of something quieter and hopefully more wintry....but at the moment my focus is very much on the possible wind and rain. It could be miserable for many before we see a snowflake.

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With this sort of pattern now being thrown up in just a week or so as a possibility things are beginning to get rather exciting

 

Posted Image

 

Let's hope for the upgrades to keep on coming through the rest of the week!

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