Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

indeed t240 chart is a reset pattern back to sw flow its a long wayout although its sticking to its guns and not looking likely to back down so which one will be right out of the big three.

might dredge back see if I can find nick sussex report from noaa last night see what there ideas are.

[That ECM]

indeed t240 chart is a reset pattern back to sw flow its a long wayout although its sticking to its guns and not looking likely to back down so which one will be right out of the big three.might dredge back see if I can find nick sussex report from noaa last night see what there ideas are.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1480/gfsnh-0-240_jcf7.pnghttp://images.meteociel.fr/im/2779/ECH1-240_ggx5.GIFProb neither!! Not sure it would matter that much which was right in terms of cold for us tho. IMO it is a variation on a theme of high pressure south, lows to the north. It's hard to see cold from either chart but things change.

[MR EXTREMES]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1041 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2013VALID 12Z WED DEC 18 2013 - 12Z SUN DEC 22 2013...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXTTHURSDAY-SUNDAY......HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEXTWEEKEND......OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...UPPER PATTERN FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGEORIENTATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE EASTERNPACIFIC/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN ATLANTIC... RESPECTIVELY.SPLIT-FLOW REGIME CAN WREAK HAVOC WITH TIMING/INTERACTION BUT THEMODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE HANDLED THE FORECAST EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELLOVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. RECENT GFS RUNS SEEM TO HAVE DRIFTEDJUST OUTSIDE THE GOOD CLUSTERING OF THE 06Z GEFS AND 00ZECMWF/ECENS MEAN RIGHT FROM WED/D3 ESPECIALLY OVER SW CANADA INTOTHE HIGH PLAINS AS IT BECOMES QUICKER THAN CONSENSUS. BYFRI-SAT/D5-6... THE GFS LIES ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLESPREAD TO TAKE THE SOUTHWESTERN CLOSED LOW EASTWARD WHICH HASMINIMAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...MUCH DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON HOW QUICKLY TO PUSHENERGY EASTWARD AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE JET INTOSOUTHEASTERN CANADA /FARTHER SOUTH IN THE THE GFS VS THE OTHERMODELS/. THIS COUPLED WITH QUESTIONS OVER HOW STRONG TO MAINTAINTHE RIDGE IN THE BAHAMAS /STRONGER SEEMS TO BE A RECENT TREND THEPAST FEW WEEKS/ WILL AFFECT WHERE THE RESULTANT SFC WAVE ALONG THECOLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. WPC PREFERENCELEANS TOWARD A STRONGER SE RIDGE AND THUS A MUCH MORE INLAND TRACKOF ANY SFC WAVE... BUT WITH GUARDED CONFIDENCE. ALL THINGSCONSIDERED... THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A GOODSTARTING POINT WED-FRI/D3-5 BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A 70/30ECENS/GEFS BLEND SAT-SUN/D6-7....SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THEPLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF 15F TO25F BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE 10F TO 20F ABOVE NORMALTEMPERATURES PUSHED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRALPLAINS WED/D3 INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE SOUTHERNSTREAM UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD... STRENGTHENING JET COUPLED WITHSOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR-RECORD MONTHLY HIGH PW VALUESSHOULD SET UP A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THESOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND... DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION. SIGNALIN THE ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THREE DAYS NOW WITHGEFS/ECENS/CMCE ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF FAIRLY HIGH FOR A 7-DAY LEADTIME. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY /JUSTRAIN ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY/ WITH WINTER P-TYPEOVER-RUNNING MOISTURE NEAR THE MIDWEST/EASTERN LAKES AS VERYSHALLOW CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTCANADA... AGAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THENORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY. WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES NORTH OFTHE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK.

 

so over all the ecm and gefs is the main models that are favoured.

normally nicks area of expertise but I thought id take a look.

 

only a shallow Canadian surface heights which may help a little to slow down the current pattern beyond day 4 and 5.

 

although this to shows there confidence in the ecm model.

I think this is an old update but it maybe useful in going back to take a look to see how much has changed.

 

Edited December 20, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[johnholmes]

indeed t240 chart is a reset pattern back to sw flow its a long wayout although its sticking to its guns and not looking likely to back down so which one will be right out of the big three.

might dredge back see if I can find nick sussex report from noaa last night see what there ideas are.

the 6-10 and 8-14 show the westerly upper flow, with minor kinks as deep lows develop at the surface will continue for the next 10-14 days really.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

nor does the ECMWF-GFS suggest anything different in its time frame, not that this was likely to occur. Difficult to see what might change this pattern but maybe those with a deeper knowledge of longer term drivers or the Stratosphere MIGHT be able to give hope to those who want long term deep cold?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited December 20, 2013 by johnholmes

[MR EXTREMES]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1038 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013VALID 12Z SUN DEC 15 2013 - 12Z THU DEC 19 2013THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM A RIDGE/TROUGHTO TROUGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS... AMID A PROGRESSIVE FLOW. POLARVORTEX SHOULD REORGANIZE/REFORM OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA /NUNAVUT/WITH RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THEGULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUTTHEIR RELIABILITY DROPS OFF AROUND TUE/D5 AS THE SWIFT FLOWINVITES MANY TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES TO APPEAR.RELATIVE/NORMALIZED ENSEMBLE SPREAD STARTS OUT NEAR TO BELOWAVERAGE/RECENT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BUT THEN INCREASES TO ABOVEAVERAGE/RECENT OVER THE WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BYWED-THU/D6-7 PER THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES... RESPECTIVELY. ANINCREASED RELIANCE ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ESPECIALLY BYWED-THU/D6-7 PROVED TO BE A BEST MIDDLE GROUND CONSIDERING THEMUCH LARGER SENSIBLE WEATHER SPREAD AS COMPARED TO THE 500MB ORPMSL SPREAD.SLOWLY MODERATING TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SWING THROUGH TWORELATIVELY MINOR SYSTEMS WITH PRECIP CONFINED TO THE GREATLAKES/NORTHEAST REGION AND A MODEST FALL/RISE BEHIND/AHEAD OF EACHCOLD FRONT... RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TOWARD CLIMOBY MIDWEEK AFTER SEVERAL CHILLY DAYS.OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE HOW THE WESTERN TROUGH EVOLVES LATERIN THE PERIOD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN THE NE PAC...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE GFS/ECMWF IN RECENT RUNSWEST OF ABOUT 95W. IN-HOUSE MODEL/ENSEMBLE FLIP-FLOP TOOL SHOWSLARGE TIMING/AMPLITUDE/ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST FEWCYCLES ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF... AND THEN THE GFS. THE GEFSACTUALLY SHOWS LESS NOISE THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES... BUT THEECMWF ENSEMBLES OFTEN HANDLE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN BETTER. WITHMANY CONFLICTING SIGNALS... A 50/50 GEFS/ECENS BLEND WAS USED BYTHU/D7 WHICH ALLOWS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO SNEAK ACROSSTHE US/CANADIAN BORDER. ONLY REAL PRECIP OF INTEREST SHOULD IN THEPAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH THEREGION. 

[mikeocarroll]

How deep is Monday night's low on the ECM here? I'v often seen the GFS with dartboard lows in deep FI, but the ECM with a such a low in the reliable (ish) timeframe is another matter. About 928 at the centre?

 

[MR EXTREMES]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1038 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013VALID 12Z SUN DEC 15 2013 - 12Z THU DEC 19 2013THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM A RIDGE/TROUGHTO TROUGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS... AMID A PROGRESSIVE FLOW. POLARVORTEX SHOULD REORGANIZE/REFORM OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA /NUNAVUT/WITH RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THEGULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUTTHEIR RELIABILITY DROPS OFF AROUND TUE/D5 AS THE SWIFT FLOWINVITES MANY TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES TO APPEAR.RELATIVE/NORMALIZED ENSEMBLE SPREAD STARTS OUT NEAR TO BELOWAVERAGE/RECENT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BUT THEN INCREASES TO ABOVEAVERAGE/RECENT OVER THE WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BYWED-THU/D6-7 PER THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES... RESPECTIVELY. ANINCREASED RELIANCE ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ESPECIALLY BYWED-THU/D6-7 PROVED TO BE A BEST MIDDLE GROUND CONSIDERING THEMUCH LARGER SENSIBLE WEATHER SPREAD AS COMPARED TO THE 500MB ORPMSL SPREAD.SLOWLY MODERATING TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SWING THROUGH TWORELATIVELY MINOR SYSTEMS WITH PRECIP CONFINED TO THE GREATLAKES/NORTHEAST REGION AND A MODEST FALL/RISE BEHIND/AHEAD OF EACHCOLD FRONT... RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TOWARD CLIMOBY MIDWEEK AFTER SEVERAL CHILLY DAYS.OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE HOW THE WESTERN TROUGH EVOLVES LATERIN THE PERIOD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN THE NE PAC...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE GFS/ECMWF IN RECENT RUNSWEST OF ABOUT 95W. IN-HOUSE MODEL/ENSEMBLE FLIP-FLOP TOOL SHOWSLARGE TIMING/AMPLITUDE/ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST FEWCYCLES ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF... AND THEN THE GFS. THE GEFSACTUALLY SHOWS LESS NOISE THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES... BUT THEECMWF ENSEMBLES OFTEN HANDLE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN BETTER. WITHMANY CONFLICTING SIGNALS... A 50/50 GEFS/ECENS BLEND WAS USED BYTHU/D7 WHICH ALLOWS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO SNEAK ACROSSTHE US/CANADIAN BORDER. ONLY REAL PRECIP OF INTEREST SHOULD IN THEPAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH THEREGION. 

so there is the signal for the vortex to relocate which clearly has been modelled its what effect this effect could have in the longterm.

whats a little worrying is that the ecm handles height rises better so looking at the azores height rebuild and higher heights into Europe it really is going to take the rest of the jigsaw to really have the desired effect.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM is wet and windy,

And the 240h chart is pretty underwhelming with that limpet profile to the North west proving almost imovable.

I know its a 240h chart but if thats anywhere near the mark the start of Jan looks pretty hopeless for cold prsopects too.

Im trying to look for postives this morning but im really not sure i can find any.

[Frosty.]

Well, even with all the very disturbed weather with heavy rain / severe gales & squally showers, the Gfs 00z shows a cold christmas day and boxing day with widespread frosts and even some snow in places, so it's still game on for a white christmas even within such a turbulent undulating pattern..the stormy conditions then return with a vengeance but with continued cold incursions and occasional milder days.

[fergieweather]

Not what the vast majority on here wanted to see Fergie but tyvm all the same.I think most of us have our hopes pinned on events over Asia,if the EC 32 is on or near the ball that's half of winter written off for the majority of us.

I'll ask folks at Ops Centre how the Asian warming is handled through GloSea 4. Meanwhile, their take on the 10-15d period (compiled prior to EC32 update but MOGREPS-15 & DECIDER evidently show similar) suggests eventual NW-SE split in ENS: ie colder/more unsettled to NW; drier/more settled to SE, where temperatures average or sometimes a tad above. So, no real change to earlier expectations as the more unsettled conditions get pushed back up north again with time; more ridging to S eventually (as per the broader EC32 signal). Anyway, that's about the sum of current thinking for those who like to ponder reliability or not of stuff so far ahead... I'm more interested (as are UKMO colleagues I've asked) in what's happening within T+144! Cheers.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'll ask folks at Ops Centre how the Asian warming is handled through GloSea 4. Meanwhile, their take on the 10-15d period (compiled prior to EC32 update but MOGREPS-15 & DECIDER evidently show similar) suggests eventual NW-SE split in ENS: ie colder/more unsettled to NW; drier/more settled to SE, where temperatures average or sometimes a tad above. So, no real change to earlier expectations as the more unsettled conditions get pushed back up north again with time; more ridging to S eventually (as per the broader EC32 signal). Anyway, that's about the sum of current thinking for those who like to ponder reliability or not of stuff so far ahead... I'm more interested (as are UKMO colleagues I've asked) in what's happening within T+144! Cheers.

Thankyou for taking time to reply Ian thats appreciated.

As a cold weather enthusiast its becoming pretty clear that a whole load of patience is going to be required,the Asian Mountain Torgue is a lonely straw many of us are grapsing with bother hands at this juncture,whether that alone will be enough to dislodge the PV of death remains to be seen.

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on the NWP output taken using the 12 midnight data on Friday December 20th 2013.

 

All models show very unsettled conditions up to Christmas with a new Low and fronts crossing NW Britain today with severe gales and heavy rain developing and sinking it subsequently SE over Southern areas tonight where it becomes slow moving and mild again later. Tomorrow sees colder and showery conditions finally reach the SE late in the day with Sunday being a very windy and showery day for all with the heaviest ones in the West and with wintry ones on Northern hills.

 

CHRISTMAS EVE looks likely to become very wet and potentially stormy as yet another storm system approaches NW Britain. Heavy rain and severe gales look likely for all before colder and clearer weather with squally showers in Westerly gales reach all but the SE by Christmas Eve night. CHRISTMAS DAY looks like very deep Low pressure will lie close to the North with a strong rather cold and showery Westerly flow delivering a lot of showers to Western and Northern coasts and hills with rather drier and brighter weather possible in the East with a little sunshine. BOXING DAY currently shows rather lighter Westerly winds but rather cold conditions across the UK. With pressure shown to be very low from all models troughs would bring showery outbreaks of rain and hill snow with the most likely places to receive these impossible to predict at this range but nowhere would likely be immune.

 

GFS then leads us out of Christmas and into the New Year with further storm systems repeatedly rushing across the Atlantic and passing the NW of Scotland maintaining the pattern of strong winds and rain in relatively mild conditions with spells of showery weather when it will be rather colder with some wintry showers over the hills of the north at least.

 

UKMO closes it's output with Boxing Day being an unsettled day with a trough crossing East giving enhanced showers, perhaps wintry on hills before drier and less showery weather moves in from the West late in the day.

 

GEM shows a cocktail of Low pressure systems encompassing the UK in the period up towards the New Year with plenty of scope for gales and heavy rain on each day with some brighter and colder moments in between.

 

NAVGEM ends the Christmas holiday period with an intense storm near SW England with severe gales and torrential rainfall possible in the South should it evolve with some snow possible on it's Northern flank while Northern areas remain rather chilly and showery.

 

ECM closes Christmas with another storm system up to the NW pushing SW'ly gales and heavy rain across all areas when it will become briefly milder again with the sunshine and shower mix returning again for a time as we approach New Years Eve. However, the embryonic signs of a new storm system to arrive over the New Year period is high on it's 10 day chart.

 

The GFS Ensembles show no shift whatsoever in maintaining the current pattern of Atlantic driven weather through the entire period with the mean temperatures for the run hugging the long term average throughout. Rainfall is again shown to be copious and troublesome at times with flooding issue a very likely proposition if this verifies.

 

The Jet Stream powering this pattern remains locked in situ with a short fluctuation South of the UK over Christmas before powering back NE across the British Isles again towards the New Year.

 

In Summary the pattern remains locked with a powerful Jet stream continuing to feed active storm systems close to NW Britain each giving their own bouts of gales and heavy rain in repeated doses. There will be some polar maritime incursions of air when showers could be heavy and wintry almost anywhere before milder weather returns on the next approaching storm. There looks unlikely to be any major pattern shift now this side of the New Year with the Jet Stream in 10 days time showing little significant signs of weakening or changing it's orientation. the net result of this sustained period will be the flooding that is likely to develop with time and this takes the headline away somewhat from the earlier risks of storm force winds over Christmas which thankfully looks to have receded somewhat on most recent model runs.

[IDO]

The mean at T384 for GFS: 

Maintaining part of the vortex over Canada with another daughter mean vortex over Siberia. The latter will muddy any pattern for a N Pacific ridge as the lows spilling off there will mute that development.

 

The packet of heights over Greenland look to be the main problem as they are omnipresent, and channel the lows coming from the Canadian vortex into our region.

 

Looking through the GEFS at the end of FI, and apart from a few interesting but outlier solutions, it is mainly as per recent output but with a slight shift of the pattern north, possibly giving respite to the south early January: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

I'll ask folks at Ops Centre how the Asian warming is handled through GloSea 4. Meanwhile, their take on the 10-15d period (compiled prior to EC32 update but MOGREPS-15 & DECIDER evidently show similar) suggests eventual NW-SE split in ENS: ie colder/more unsettled to NW; drier/more settled to SE, where temperatures average or sometimes a tad above. So, no real change to earlier expectations as the more unsettled conditions get pushed back up north again with time; more ridging to S eventually (as per the broader EC32 signal). Anyway, that's about the sum of current thinking for those who like to ponder reliability or not of stuff so far ahead... I'm more interested (as are UKMO colleagues I've asked) in what's happening within T+144! Cheers.

It's fantastic to have the input from an expert, cheers for all your superb contributions fergieweather. As for the models, there is cold weather ahead with wintry incursions alternating with milder days but it's the stormy nature of the weather which will continue to grab our attention with severe gales and storm force gusts at times during the next 7-10 days plus with more flooding.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Frosty.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Well, even with all the very disturbed weather with heavy rain / severe gales & squally showers, the Gfs 00z shows a cold christmas day and boxing day with widespread frosts and even some snow in places, so it's still game on for a white christmas even within such a turbulent undulating pattern..the stormy conditions then return with a vengeance but with continued cold incursions and occasional milder days.

 

Dont you just love that Pennine Pink Frosty - location location location!  - although coastal rain on the Fylde for us as per usual.

 

Might be interesting up at the Kirkstone next week (1500 asl) as I will do a detour up the "Struggle" from Ambleside after visiting relatives - might even take the sledge 

 

In the meantime keeping a close eye on the next bombardment.......

 

 

Ian

[nick sussex]

Looks like a good call from the ECM re the upstream low which phases with the one over the UK, annoyingly so because that just helps to throw the pattern ne. For the GFS a big fail within T120hrs, the UKMO was a halfway house so avoids a slating.

Thereafter if you're an umbrella salesman you'll be jumping for joy, also perhaps if you're a roof tiler, if you're hoping to run outside and play in the snow then the output is akin to who shot Bambi!

Although the models agree on a pressure rise near the Arctic the PV is in no mood to relent and is determined to blast anything in its wake, overall wet, windy, milder, cooler interludes sums the output up.

Give it a week and I expect those bemoaning the Euro limpet high will be welcoming it back with open arms!

[nick sussex]

I know things might look bleak for coldies but I've seen worse zonal set ups. Maybe anything after the tragic 88/89 winter doesn't seem so bad! A few straws to clutch, looking back through the historic AO, a combo of positive AO for Nov and Dec is normally followed by at least one winter month with a negative AO.

The GFS still forecasts a warming in the strat and these normally do verify even if they're showing in the lower resolution output.

[Paul]

Just moved a load of posts into the model banter thread - talking about what weather constitutes boring or not doesn't really constitute model discussion, even at Christmas 

If you're wondering where your post is, it's over in here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

[Summer Sun]

Looking at this mornings 00z ensembles it does look like rain will ease during the first few days of Jan which will be welcomed by many the 850's are never far away from average either

 

 

A quick look at the precipitation forecast shows a very wet week coming up especially in some western parts with the potential for snow at times if its cold enough in NW Scotland

[Great Plum]

So, Christmas Day - a touch of frost to look festive for many:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png

Pretty cool daytime temps as well for most:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.png

Blowtorch Christmas it ain't!

[Frosty.]

There seems to be a bit of respite from the stormy atlantic lows during xmas eve /  day and boxing day morning with rather colder conditions across the uk with frosty nights and a mix of sunshine and wintry showers, most of the showers across the northwest. However, later on boxing day, the gloves come off again and it's back into stormy overdrive with further bouts of heavy rain and severe gales and slightly milder temperatures interspersed by colder, showery days and the Gfs 06z op run shows no sign of the weather settling down as we head through late dec into the new year with the snowiest weather across northern hills and mountains but occasionally to lower levels and further south.

[Troubleatmill]

Tomorrow night shows a real scorpion tail stormy episode coming through on the parent low, one to watch as that would produce quite extensive damage i would of thought, only short lived but severe!

Edited December 20, 2013 by Arron B

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2858/gfs-2-120_wna2.png

The queue at the bookies will be long based on such a model output from the ever reliable 06z!! Great, that's christmas paid for!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm glad there a few others who see the many positives Fred, I was beginning to think I was viewing model output for another planet over the last few days.

Indeed lots to have positivity aligned to.  Yep we may not have or get GHP or Russian HP advancing but we have a Jetstream shifting south and I indeed think that we're in for a very wintry treat as we enter 2014.  Before that though trouble with wind and rain....and lots of it. 

 

BFTP

Edited December 20, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

 

Just moved a load of posts into the model banter thread - talking about what weather constitutes boring or not doesn't really constitute model discussion, even at Christmas 

If you're wondering where your post is, it's over in here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

your call paul, but i think you moved some useful model dicussion points to a place where they may not be seen. i, for one, never delve into that thread.