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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

At least the stratospheric temperature forecast is looking better from 250 hours onwards with a significant warming over Asia. This was also shown on previous runs around 300+ hours so it is nice to see it come closer.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Certainly not a 'mighty' PV on the UKMO 144

 

Posted Image

Yes better polar profile on the UKMO-GM at day 6 compared to GFS. It has Nick Sussex's reindeer shape ;)

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

to be honest I think its good that john is help the less experienced in bringing a realistic look at what the models are showing.

its going to be a long winter.

by god kayro I hope your spot on the asia strat warming happens or were all going to end up in the loony bin lol.

 

but there are signs of snow its not blow torch although was better yesterday but tomorrow is another day plus we got the other models to take a look at yet.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Certainly not a 'mighty' PV on the UKMO 144

 

Posted Image

Still looks pretty "mighty" to me! Maybe over the last few years i have got used to a more blocked NH in winter. I think appart from some snow on the highest ground in the north we are going to have to be patient and wait until well into Jan for a pattern change. As Karyo says the warming over Asia is a good start but this will take a while to effect the PV / our part of the world

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

hi CC

I am not sniping at you or others. I genuinely would like to help you and others to learn more to help you understand more. Yes I apologise at times when the professional in me gets irked by comments that really have no meteorological backing to them- but that is all. If anyone shows an interest then I will happily start a pdf this evening as I have spare time that folk can dip into to prevent this thread being cluttered, show the current position, what the models are suggesting and have a discussion within that pdf on what anyone thinks will happen.

 

John, the notion of heights lifting to our N was a reslistic one.....it must be because the 12z run goes on to show this in FI (albeit maintaining a rather unsettled pattern for the UK). I don't see anything wrong with pre-empting an FI possibility as that is part of what this thread is about. I'm sorry if you may think I was misleading newer members but that wasn't the aim of any of my posts.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I will in future post my views in a pdf at times when I think it suitable to try and explain in my rather cack handed manner what is a probability and what seems not to be. That way folk will not be offended unless they look in my pdf and the main thread will be clear of niggles.

The first one this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I haven't got the willingness to go to great lengths to annotate what I was seeing towards the end of hi-res but you could clearly see that the ridging further N of the high to our east was promoting spats of higher heights round the top of our troughing.......something I believe even Bluearmy has pointed out over the past few days. I wasn't summarising the NWP as a whole or hopecasting in the slightest...merely commenting on one run. Don't understand why you have to constantly try and undermine or snipe at others when they have a differing view to your own?

 

 

Yes those heights were promising, Russian, N. Pacific and polar heights: post-14819-0-33504900-1387300102_thumb.p

 

But there was an inevitability about it. So much PV energy, you squeeze one part of the NH it will power up the lower heights elsewhere and flatten the pattern: 

 

post-14819-0-26899100-1387300174_thumb.p

 

In this instance the Pacific ridge is quelled by the energy in the form of lows, spinning off the bottled up NE quadrant of the NH. Thus the jet is re-invigorated and off we go again, repeat and rinse pattern. What IB warned us of.

 

Till the PV loses some of its bite, any transitional HLB is going to be of little help unless we lose the Greenland blob, seemingly the only part of the PV that is omnipresent, meaning any cold flown in on the jet from the Canadian vortex is washed out time it finishes its N. Atlantic crossing to the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

The models are looking really boring for cold and snow, usually we see some excitement in FI, I haven't see anything even that exciting in FI at all this month. Hopefully the ECM 12z has an FI with deep cold and heavy snow Posted Image

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Stop bloomin bickering the pair of you! Posted Image

 

We all have a right to post here regardless of our experience and it's written in the rules that we are able to so long as we are gracious and respectful.

 

I think we've missed our chance for low level snow in 'this' run, but it's just about holding on for around christmas, everything just needs a little nudge in the right direction (south).

 

Also, do not fear posting in this thread all you 'watchers' out there, they may come across as being intellectual tigers, but they are a nice bunch really and very rarely 'properly' kick off Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Relentlessly Zonal from start to finish

Posted Image

Posted Image

A lovely cold High over Siberia (luck sods!) with an awesome huge airmass circa -40 very extensive. Canada of course, not too shaby either. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

No good in the slightest to the UK as it's all blasted east courtesy of the limpet vortex which has got a life tenancy over Greenland etc and bathes us in mild wet stormy rubbish.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS ensembles still hinting at height rises through Scandi around Xmas though neither the Op nor control support this sort of prominent ridging.

 

Posted Image

 

Certainly nothing to get excited about as yet, particularly given Ian's update this morning but maybe something to watch, that is what we are here for after all. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

Yes those heights were promising, Russian, N. Pacific and polar heights: Posted Imagegfsnh-0-288.png

 

But there was an inevitability about it. So much PV energy, you squeeze one part of the NH it will power up the lower heights elsewhere and flatten the pattern: 

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-384.png

 

In this instance the Pacific ridge is quelled by the energy in the form of lows, spinning off the bottled up NE quadrant of the NH. Thus the jet is re-invigorated and off we go again, repeat and rinse pattern. What IB warned us of.

 

Till the PV loses some of its bite, any transitional HLB is going to be of little help unless we lose the Greenland blob, seemingly the only part of the PV that is omnipresent, meaning any cold flown in on the jet from the Canadian vortex is washed out time it finishes its N. Atlantic crossing to the UK.

Pertubation 2 is interesting and demonstrating the sort a thing we are looking for( or hopecasting for depending on your pov)

post-9179-0-04576400-1387302276_thumb.pn

 

I see Mucka beat me to it.

Edited by swilliam
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Pertubation 2 is interesting and demonstrating the sort a thing we are looking for( or hopecasting for depending on your pov)

Posted Imagegensnh-2-1-252.png

 

I see Mucka beat me to it.

Fair enough, William...But individual perturbations start from incorrect data?

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Pertubation 2 is interesting and demonstrating the sort a thing we are looking for( or hopecasting for depending on your pov)

Posted Imagegensnh-2-1-252.png

 

I see Mucka beat me to it.

 

P15 is even better...

 

I suspect frosty will be all over this later Posted Image

post-18296-0-62219200-1387302439_thumb.p

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Fair enough, William...But individual perturbations start from incorrect data?

 

Tweaked data Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

Fair enough, William...But individual perturbations start from incorrect data?

Modified data I think is the phrase but indicates possibilities only and of course the averages are used to give the most likely solution at this range rather than the ops (as JH keeps telling us)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

P15 is even better...

 

 

Quite, signs of transient HLB. On Christmas Day there are seven ensembles showing a profile of similar potential; due to the flux of the PV allowing heights to build north. By D10 there are three members and by D15 none.

 

My point was that tentative signs of height rises are showing, some to our NE and the cross flow of the op is another. One way or another, and at different rates these are quashed as the PV re-organises itself. Obviously this is all in FI so the normal caveats apply, and of course better these trends to watch, than us just measuring how deep the next low is going to be, as it passes close to the UK.Posted Image

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

But not correct...Posted Image

 

Depends I guess, my understanding is for the individual ensemble members to start with slightly tweaked starting conditions to allow for inaccuracies. Thus the ensemble suit gives guidance on the likely accuracy of the control and the control on the accuracy of the Op. It's all about  probability and confidence so in that sense you are right that individual members (esp in FI) should not be taken at face value even if they could potentially verify.

 

Personally I use the ensembles to look for possible pattern changes or signals such as the GFS 12z suit shows an increased possibility of blocking in the run up to the New Year - not a high probability but an increased probability and that was something I posted about earlier. In that sense the ensembles are worth watching to see if that signal strengthens or weakens but not worth taking too seriously unless we see it produced by the Op or at least control runs or even the ECMPosted Image

Edited by Mucka
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