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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Actually Shed that chart does not show an easterly, it shows a northerly across some parts of the UK, Ireland a more SW tilt to the wind. But the following days the wind becomes more a NE, still it wasn't a lengthy cold spell until late January

 

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Hi Gaz...I was actually referring to this chart that I posted for the 15th Dec 46....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Yes and then GEM building heights to the north & N/NE at end of the run too?

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Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I like the way the jet is aligning later on the Gfs 12z op run, a nice nw / se slant meaning we get reloads of colder polar maritime air from the northwest which has potential to turn arctic, max temps of 3 or 4 celsius with wintry showers and frosty nights. This would be a solid base to build from with a more significant wintry spell later in January, surely we will have some snow events during the next month...the jet alignment is the most important thing during the next few weeks, tilt it northwest / southeast and we will be in business..oh I keep saying we, I mean the vast majority on here who like cold and snow instead of endless mild mush.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Like it or not this looks like another sig blow for next Monday on GFS

 

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With UKMO not looking a million miles away from it for the same time. Sub 960mb lows so far this winter have been literally 10 a penny...Posted Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Like it or not this looks like another sig blow for next Monday on GFS

 

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With UKMO not looking a million miles away from it for the same time. Sub 960mb lows so far this winter have been literally 10 a penny...Posted Image

 

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Yup, Atlantic isn't going to settle down in a hurry in the New Year that's for sure, plenty more wind and rain than I had hoped for over the next 7 days or so - hopefully beyond that we will see some relaxing of the pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Yup, Atlantic isn't going to settle down in a hurry in the New Year that's for sure, plenty more wind and rain than I had hoped for over the next 7 days or so - hopefully beyond that we will see some relaxing of the pattern.

 

Hi,

 

You seem to know your stuff ;-) Does the NAO going negative impact the frequency and intensity of these things?

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Things have to change over Canada and North America. Way too much deeply cold air flooding into the North Atlantic and mixing with warmer waters, if this continues, then so does the storm onslaught. I......guessPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There is overwhelming support for a potential colder blast later next week from the GEFS 12z perturbations once the low pushes to the northeast, supported by mid-atlantic ridging which may become more robust and hold up the atlantic juggernaut for a while, the pattern looks more amplified than it has looked previously in the T+168 hours timeframe so perhaps we have a chance of wintry showers and frosts towards the end of next week, maybe even some snowPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Hi,

 

You seem to know your stuff ;-) Does the NAO going negative impact the frequency and intensity of these things?

 

Hi, In short, yes.

The NAO is positive when we have low pressure to the North (Iceland area) and high pressure to the South (Azores area) which ramps up the Westerly flow and generally brings milder, stormier conditions in Winter. Conversely with a negative NAO the Westerlies are suppressed allowing for colder incursions to push down from the Arctic. There are obviously other drivers of the weather we get but essentially we will be wetter and stormier with a positive NAO in Winter.

 

The NAO shouldn't be seen as a driver but rather a measure of expected MLB and HLB around our vicinity predicted by the models.

 

I should add there are plenty here who know their stuff better than I, especially the technical aspects and maybe they want to add to that but thanks for the vote of confidence. Posted Image

 

Edit.

 

Also you might like to check out the excellent Netweather help and guides found here.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

 

He he just noticed I had a brain fart and wrote Easterly flow instead of Westerly - corrected now.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Things have to change over Canada and North America. Way too much deeply cold air flooding into the North Atlantic and mixing with warmer waters, if this continues, then so does the storm onslaught. I......guessPosted Image

Indeed and really no credible sign of this happening. We have exceptional even record breaking cold air mass meeting anomolously warm waters, hey presto a rock solid pattern that also has the strength of being a default pattern for this time of the year. Maybe we need a nuke or a re-run of the Krakatoa eruption to help us? Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Indeed and really no credible sign of this happening. We have exceptional even record breaking cold air mass meeting anomolously warm waters, hey presto a rock solid pattern that also has the strength of being a default pattern for this time of the year. Maybe we need a nuke or a re-run of the Krakatoa eruption to help us? Posted ImagePosted Image

That might just shift it! Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Indeed and really no credible sign of this happening. We have exceptional even record breaking cold air mass meeting anomolously warm waters, hey presto a rock solid pattern that also has the strength of being a defaut pattern for this time of the year. Maybe we need a nuke or a re-run of the Krakatoa eruption to help us? Posted ImagePosted Image

Tbh i dont think a nuke would touch the current pv!!Posted Image Anyway more of the same to come in the reliable and more wind and rain.Looking at the nh profile and altho things look not to bad we in the uk cant get a break regarding details across the pond!Id give my grandmothers wooden leg for that ens mr Murr posted but thats just mePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

There is overwhelming support for a potential colder blast later next week from the GEFS 12z perturbations once the low pushes to the northeast, supported by mid-atlantic ridging which may become more robust and hold up the atlantic juggernaut for a while, the pattern looks more amplified than it has looked previously in the T+168 hours timeframe so perhaps we have a chance of wintry showers and frosts towards the end of next week, maybe even some snowPosted Image

fROSTY YOUR A STAR ,Crack open a stella ,sit down and relax and watch those STella runs come later this week ,Happy new year to all on Netweather .Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

It really does seem clear that this pattern is going to take some shifting. More concerns over flooding as rainfall totals progressively mount up; it does seem likely that January will end up with a large total of rainfall, would not surprise me if many areas were at their average for the month inside the first ten days or so

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Posted
  • Location: The Debatable Lands
  • Location: The Debatable Lands

As long as the azores high pressure is around there will be little change

it is king and has been for awhile, its as simple as that

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Interesting...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Well at 144 the ECM has that us low at least a couple of hundred miles inland where as the GFS had it straddling the coast, Atlantic looks more amplified. Be interesting where this goes after all the talk on how important that us low is and that we need it further inland. Fingers crossed...

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

As long as the azores high pressure is around there will be little change

it is king and has been for awhile, its as simple as that

Been around since the summer, feels comfortable and cannot be bothered to move, although it will probably bugger off during the summer, making last summer a one off.  I don't think i am going to get to use this little guyPosted Image this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123112/ECH1-144.GIF?31-0

 

ECM sticking to its guns with the inland runner- looks better than the 00z actually-

 

lets see where it goes..

S

 

Is this the real deal from the ECM or playing with amplification again..?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Been around since the summer, feels comfortable and cannot be bothered to move, although it will probably bugger off during the summer, making last summer a one off.  I don't think i am going to get to use this little guyPosted Image this winter.

 

Actually the Azores high has been displaced  west by the Southerly jet only briefly threatening to ridge back across the UK.

 

ECM game on?

 

Posted Image

 

I would love to see a slider modelled but probably it will just topple with the energy riding NE over the top. Still it would be nice to see this Atlantic ridge signal get stronger.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

ECM 168 must have potential, as mentioned by Steve and Nick that US low got absorbed by the Canadian vortex and should I hope start pumping up some WAA towards Greenland helping the Azores high to ridge.

Edited by TSNWK
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