Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well I think the world has gone mad here.

ECM sends everything north east whilst the GFS separates the energy and allows the Arctic high to gain some influence on the European weather pattern.

GFS

It's time for the GFS to try an earn some credibility back. It rescued itself in March by being the first to spot that cold spell. Can it do the same as we head into 2014.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[TSNWK]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122212/ECH1-168.GIF?22-0Lows turning to face SW over NW Russia-Also for the first time this Winter we have a fully split vortex!Expecting possible Svalbard height rises at 192-SPS wheres ian brown?

Not sure about the height rises at 192 this time.. Edited December 22, 2013 by TSNWK

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122212/ECH1-216.GIF?22-0

 

Pretty good chart- Heights increasing over Greenland & remaining high over the pole...

 

S

[legritter]

The suspence is nerve grating ,Will ecm throw a cracker in the works . v good day model wise so far best position so far .another way of looking at things could be Fridays low getting modeled further south .but i expect GFS to show many synoptic situations in its later frames especially if an Arctic high does set up shop .Certainly not boring .

[nick sussex]

Just to clarify my earlier post, below the ECM and GFS at T144hrs, you can see how the GFS clears that low east and separates out the energy, the ECM has shortwave energy stretched across which stops those more positive heights from moving nw:

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

 

Part of the problem is the ECM is a little less amplified, also the shape of the low over the UK is less favourable, if you get more amplification upstream this will help sharpen the low over the UK.

 

The ECM may still eventually get to some interest, its not a catastrophe as long as the Arctic high remains well placed.

 

Even allowing for the ECM trying its best to annoy my its trend is still okay, I think we can see a solid trend emerging with the Arctic high, there will be a window of opportunity as the PV edges a little further to the nw, this is more than we envisaged a few days back, I think we have to say a thankyou to at least the reverse zonal winds near the pole which has helped this Arctic high along its way.

 

IF we are lucky and we get good trough disruption and a clearance se of that with no residual energy left behind then I think we have a good chance of seeing something more wintry for the start of January, the GFS at T144hrs really starts the ball rolling, so certainly keep an eye on the now named Norway Gap, that might be a small synoptic disagreement in global terms between the models but could have a big impact going forward.

Edited December 22, 2013 by nick sussex

[The PIT]

First sign of a split in the vortex???  Possible pattern change for the new year???

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122212/ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

 

ECM ends with a low pressure in the atlantic that is peaking well west & South of the north- coming under attack from pressure over Greenland & trying to get into the pole.

 

 

pretty good run & gearing things up nicely for the New year -

S

[UV-RAY]

Looks like those of us were positive about a change to a colder setup over the last couple of weeks  with the jet digging south are now seeing much to be positive about, split vortexes, negative NAO and AO on the cards and the early signs of HLB, and today I've already encountered blizzards whilst out hillwalking . Lots of eye candy to view over the coming days no doubt but we are not out of the woods yet, as we all know too well that it only takes a SW to appear to scupper any cold for this tiny speck in the ocean.

[Troubleatmill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122212/ECM1-240.GIF?22-0 ECM ends with a low pressure in the atlantic that is peaking well west & South of the north- coming under attack from pressure over Greenland & trying to get into the pole.  pretty good run & gearing things up nicely for the New year -S

Could really do with seeing that LP off the NW of Norway tracking over to finland rather than sitting there slowly decaying,it would open the door for a link up as Nick S said before, Looks like we have window forming for the arctic high to come into play, most promising charts of the winter thus far for some real cold to reach our shore!

[Downpour]

Much better charts today. What price a version of last year's pattern - wet December followed by the freezer for Winter Proper? (Remember it's only the second day of winter by the cosmos - *runs for cover*) When did the pattern change last year? Early Jan?

[Purga]

BA liked GEM at 240hrs last night & tonights is not without merit

 

[Jason T]

This will put smiles on some faces, I couldn't resist, It is model related mods.

 

https://twitter.com/ECMWF_Winning

 

[SMU]

BA liked GEM at 240hrs last night & tonights is not without merit

 

 

 

Indeed the GEM shows what I posted above- the small height rises over Greenland allow the flow pattern to change & push the jet south-

 

S

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Much better charts today. What price a version of last year's pattern - wet December followed by the freezer for Winter Proper? (Remember it's only the second day of winter by the cosmos - *runs for cover*) When did the pattern change last year? Early Jan?

I believe the pattern changed to blocked and snowy around second week of Jan

[ANYWEATHER]

No any significant cold even in the far outstretched and unreliable phases of T+240 from Ecm and Gfs and straw clutching is the only option   Both Ecm and Gfs in that time period show Default January weather.....

[Iceni]

He's left his new job prevents him from posting here

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76241-this-is-the-end/#entry2669590

 

A great pity. I wonder which 'multinational'?

 

The cynic in me wonders whether GP was upsetting their apple cart so they gave him a job.

[pjpauly2k]

Hi, been a long time reader of this forum. Thanks for all the insight and opinions. If this pattern change is coming in New year how soon do you think any snow will follow based on the models? Flying on 2nd Jan and had three flights cancelled over past 3 years due to snow, seriously im the most unlucky flyer ever! 

I know this is very difficult to say this far out but any opinions would be appreciated 

[Troubleatmill]

No any significant cold even in the far outstretched and unreliable phases of T+240 from Ecm and Gfs and straw clutching is the only option   Both Ecm and Gfs in that time period show Default January weather.....

No straw clutching Anyweather if you look at all models, no one saying cold is coming its a definate, straw clutching is one ensemble showing cold, what we are seeing are signs of a pattern change

[HighPressure]

I am not a models man but the general pattern over the last few years is for a change to colder conditions a week or so after the xmas period. From what is being written here we appear to be heading for just that scenario?

[The Northern Ramper]

A great pity. I wonder which 'multinational'? The cynic in me wonders whether GP was upsetting their apple cart so they gave him a job.

Daily Express I heard

[Weather Boy]

No straw clutching Anyweather if you look at all models, no one saying cold is coming its a definate, straw clutching is one ensemble showing cold, what we are seeing are signs of a pattern change

 

Yes. good post.  Comment purely for newbies, as it will obvious to anyone with any experience:

 

1. We need to see more runs firming up on damage or splitting of the vortex

2. Even if that does happen, it doesn't guarantee cold for the UK, it just promotes blocking which in turn makes non-Atlantic weather and therefore easterly or northerly flows more likely to give snow etc. 

 

In short, far too early to get excited.  However, it's something we have not seen for weeks, hence some excitement is inevitable.  Could be gone over the next runs, but my personal feeling is that there have been hints at a pattern change at some point in the coming 2/3 weeks for a while.  Way too early to say though.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122212/ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

 

ECM ends with a low pressure in the atlantic that is peaking well west & South of the north- coming under attack from pressure over Greenland & trying to get into the pole.

 

 

pretty good run & gearing things up nicely for the New year -

S

That's the post I'm looking for!!!!

 

BFTP

[ITSY]

the strat gets interesting in our side of the pole towards the latter stages of low res on the 12Z runs. Would be nice to keep it developing for a while in the run up to the New Year

[bluearmy]

BA liked GEM at 240hrs last night & tonights is not without merit

 

 

 

as long as we can be patient, some of these more interesting 'coldie' charts will get closer to verifying.  i think gem is overdoing those height rises but it wouldnt be the first time that the model has spotted the way forward. 

 

checking out the extended ens shows that there is a distinct lack of direction apart from the general mobile flow to our west and increased signal for blocking to our east.  that puts just about anything on the table as we head through the first week of jan and beyond. (eg. the ecm control has a huge mlb stretched across nw europe and send winter back down to se europe).

Edited December 22, 2013 by bluearmy

[Ice Day]

Evening all.  Not a pretty sight for Friday!

 

 

940mb?!?!?!

Edited December 22, 2013 by Ice Day