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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

A bit of semantics going on here, I don't think Gavin has to extrapolate on the direction of the low waiting in the wings(although the chart would suggest said low would run south east)Posted Image

 

still bored - the point is not the damn low, but the general lifting of heights to our north. there are lows everywhere on the charts at the moment. the words 'wood' and 'trees' spring to mind.  

 

and as vorticity points out above, the dutch charts trending colder after the extended ecm ens. i fancy london could be chillier later.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Stop rutting boys and be nice to each otherPosted Image Its a stormy enough Christmas as suggested by the computer modelsPosted Image .

 

Happy holidays everyonePosted Image

Tis the season of goodwill to all men, allegedly. :-)
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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

The Arctic high sweeps in like the Caped Crusader to say no way to mild mush! With this feature it does help to force the jet further south and as long as its hanging around I think wintry potential remains.

 

It's a battle between the Joker the PV over Canada and the Batman Arctic high because if the PV relents or even if it edges further nw then you would expect some trough disruption near the UK, indeed the ECM T240hrs is probably the best chart for what seems an age.

 

We'll see over the coming days which way the pendulum starts to swing, overall I think the output has taken a small step forward in terms of prospects for something a little more wintry.

hello nick. long time since i posted here. you in a comic mood tonight? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

hello nick. long time since i posted here. you in a comic mood tonight? Posted Image

Yes in good spirits having done all my Xmas shopping and watched the absolute joy that is Strictly! In terms of the GFS its model bias clearly shown here as it piles all the energy ne against the Arctic high, zip goes eastwards, very unlikely outcome that.

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: snow!!!!
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands

It's quiet in here this evening, someone please tell me things are looking hopeful for coldies???

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

It's quiet in here this evening, someone please tell me things are looking hopeful for coldies???

I thought that it was quiet too. As we head into January there are the signs of the PV weakening over the Arctic, getting replaced by a positive AO. This does not guarantee us cold and snow but could help. The trends at this range are key and need monitoring. This must be the 3rd time today though that show this.http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/18/372/npsh500.png Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Would feel raw here.

 

Posted Image

 

At least its settled.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

It's quiet in here this evening, someone please tell me things are looking hopeful for coldies???

Hopeful is a good word - nothing concrete but there is hope out threre. (Although the 18z shows how the probable trop vortex split will likely be pressured by the strength of the jet )Neg AO GSL ?? Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Hopeful is a good word - nothing concrete but there is hope out threre. (Although the 18z shows how the probable trop vortex split will likely be pressured by the strength of the jet )Neg AO GSL ??

Sorry lol, I meant to say Neg AO. Must be because its been positive for so long.
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Got all these massive lows to get through first. However, GFS has been hinting signs of changes in the last runs. The jet looks to change in position and we even see signs of height rises over Scandinavia. Interesting times ahead

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: snow!!!!
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands

Good news, snow chasing/watching/loving has got to be one of the most frustrating hobbies known to man. The charts tempt you with it and then snatch it away and this year has been the worst for it.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

What we ARE seeing is models picking up on a potentially very wintry first half of January.....expect more of this 'upgrading'

 

This would get interesting to start

 

Posted Image

 

 

BFTP

 

Yes looking similar to the end of 1946 and we all know what happened in 1947

post-7914-0-55414500-1387667015_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Ensembles are better tonight...

 

I'd like one of these, reckon odds are 10-1 against presently as GEFS can be a bit naughty with churning these charts out....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0

 

 

Whilst I'd be hacked off, anyone with a sense of humour would appreciate this.. Surely the 20-1 outsider though.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=7&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0

 

The 2-1 favourite based on past experience and background signals though, is probably going to be this......

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

 

At least we are back in the game though and regardless of where we end up the forum might liven up a bit.

 

Jason

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

ECM control run out in the mid-range, also mean for comparison.

post-7292-0-33268200-1387670302_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-61553900-1387670304_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-31428600-1387670503_thumb.pn

 

 

.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Poor runs this morning all round. Firstly and most importantly the Xmas eve storm has if anything intensified on the overnight runs, followed by another severe storm at the end of week.

Secondly for coldies there is a big step backwards this morning, the tentative signs of trough disruption have disappeared. Yes there are some heights over the pole, but they are not helping to advect any deep cold towards us and if anything during the back end of gfs the vortex is intensifying over Greenland and we have hgh pressure building to our south.

ECM ends with a little bit of interest, but it's verification at day 9 and 10 has been average at best this winter so far in my view, and only yesterday it was suggesting trough disruption at 168, which soon went on the next runs.

Sorry for the rather downbeat post, please don't shoot the messenger

Cheers

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Poor runs this morning all round. Firstly and most importantly the Xmas eve storm has if anything intensified on the overnight runs, followed by another severe storm at the end of week.Secondly for coldies there is a big step backwards this morning, the tentative signs of trough disruption have disappeared. Yes there are some heights over the pole, but they are not helping to advect any deep cold towards us and if anything during the back end of gfs the vortex is intensifying over Greenland and we have hgh pressure building to our south.ECM ends with a little bit of interest, but it's verification at day 9 and 10 has been average at best this winter so far in my view, and only yesterday it was suggesting trough disruption at 168, which soon went on the next runs.Sorry for the rather downbeat post, please don't shoot the messengerCheers

 

 

 

The vortex is not over Greenland for the large part of the output and is certainly not intensifying toward the end of it.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122200/gfsnh-0-372.png?0

 

GFS a slight outlier at the end of the run.Nice to see a cluster of colder runs in view also

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

All the main models are in agreement regarding a deep low forecast to arrive next Saturday - how often do the charts have this much similarity at +144? Does this mean it is a certainty?

We have been regularly battered by the Atlantic this December and we are definitely overdue for some easterlies from the continent - January remains the favourite for this IMHO.

Anyway, must get outside and tie the shed down before our Christmas storm arrives....

Have a great Christmas everyone!

post-20103-0-26354500-1387695997_thumb.j

post-20103-0-63626200-1387696022_thumb.j

post-20103-0-00335600-1387696046_thumb.j

post-20103-0-27673000-1387696065_thumb.j

post-20103-0-16605000-1387696312_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Despite a boring looking GFS op, the GEFS have not changed a lot from the 12z. There are about 10 members showing a High in the Arctic region. The mean at T384: post-14819-0-12668600-1387696373_thumb.p

 

It shows the split vortex with ridging from Russia into the Arctic. The trend to push the Euro heights north is still showing.

 

Plenty of cold flows in the upper's charts with pretty much everything in the mix. Zonal is still in there, but it is just noise at T384 rather than the trend:

 

post-14819-0-97577900-1387696797_thumb.p  post-14819-0-43918300-1387696817_thumb.p  post-14819-0-31188700-1387696841_thumb.p

 

post-14819-0-16957400-1387696857_thumb.p

 

Still have two severe storms incoming and by then we should know whether these cold charts are a false dawn. Both are severe:

 

post-14819-0-97182600-1387697245_thumb.p  post-14819-0-86225200-1387697263_thumb.p

 

Christmas Day gusts could be 70mph+. Christmas Eve best chance for snow; usual suspects: post-14819-0-99630800-1387697511_thumb.p

 

Christmas Day: Cool/cold the further E/N you live: post-14819-0-40341300-1387697639_thumb.p post-14819-0-23415400-1387697652_thumb.p

 

 

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