Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Methuselah]

To be honest we have the major effects coming into place...

What 'major effects' are those, liam? 

[UV-RAY]

I certainly would not put much faith in the GFS 12z op run.

Nothing really changed this evening from what I can see apart from

tentative signs of something more promising as we go into 2014

although as I said the GFS run this afternoon is way, way over the

top with regards to northern blocking.

I'm not so sure it is really and maybe it's picking up on the right signals as it's done for the last month or so, the ECM has been absolutely shocking but that's not to say it's not right now though.

[Cloud 10]

Not sure the ECM bashing is justified as it is well ahead at the moment.

 

 

NCEP EMC Global Model Verification

 

 

Notice how all the models have improved since the pattern flattened out.

[Joe Levy]

Not sure the ECM bashing is justified as it is well ahead at the moment.

 

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

NCEP EMC Global Model Verification

 

 

Notice how all the models have improved since the pattern flattened out.

What about post 144 hours? Just curious to see how the models perform beyond the fairly short term

[ANYWEATHER]

The ecm and gfs are predicting a lull in the stormy weather for Christmas day albeit rather cold and perhaps wet, Long way off as its T+144 , but the overall pattern remains the same, right into the new year and for those who are wishing for something colder and much more wintry , hold youre  horses it will come but nothing this side of any serious cold this side of the new year!!!    

 

 

 

 

[Cloud 10]

What about post 144 hours? Just curious to see how the models perform beyond the fairly short term

 

192 hrs..240 hrs..

The ECM ensemble mean is your best bet at 240 hrs..

 

Edited December 19, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Joe Levy]

192 hrs..cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

240 hrs..cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Very interesting indeed! Thank you! At those distances in time, there is quite a bit of variation, so it will be really fascinating to see how the models perform in the coming weeks, especially when we now have a bit of conflict between them

[georgiedre]

Regarding verification stats I have realised that when there is a pattern change the gfs is better than the ecm the last 3 times intact the gfs has got it right. On mob so not able to provide pics soz

[draztik]

Fair to say the ecm has the higher verification, even beyond t144. So its recent criticism is not justified.

looking at the 12z ensembles, its as you were from my eyes. There are some faint signals of a change as we head into the new year - but nothing nailed as yet!

[bluearmy]

ecm ens and spreads keep the potential for a snow event next weekend somewhere midlands northwards.  the growing high anomolys way to our ne mean that the troughing has nowhere to go except into europe (no convincing signal for it to be sustained there), over us (more likely), or to withdraw back into the atlantic (jet seems too strong for that).

[Snowman.]

Regarding verification stats I have realised that when there is a pattern change the gfs is better than the ecm the last 3 times intact the gfs has got it right. On mob so not able to provide pics soz

GFS hasn't got it right it over did the Atlantic several times and broke through the blocking high much faster and tried to flattening the pattern.

 

ECM on the other hand over did the amplification and showed heights being much stronger than what happened.

 

 

 

Last couple of chances we've had have all followed the same path. Over-amplification.

 

 

This is on the other hand is sending energy south-wards underneath a blocking high, and creating a small amount of trough disruption sending lower heights into Europe, at the moment there is no blocking high forming for our side of the world and there is no point judging models at there current range which is well into FI.

 

 

GFS was awful last winter hasn't been spectacular this winter either but that's to do with more of the technical side of things and the fact its hit a couple of tough spot as well as the ECM things like this is bound to happen.

 

 

ECM and GFS could well be right or wrong the GFS has a strong bias of overdoing the Atlantic so if its doing this then its going to be the ECM nearest to the mark.

Edited December 19, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[SMU]

ECM has been & probably always be number 1 across the piste- which is why the Met office put much faith in it-

 

Sadly its 2 fails this year so far have both been around blocking across Greenland- so we need to be wary of the ECM in this area-

 

 

Anyway-  a reasonable day model watching- more runs & upgrades needed.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM looking better deep FI screaming southerly tracking LP...... as for Xmas Day, calm, my punt is storm arrives eve and late Boxing Day

 

BFTP

Edited December 19, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

extended naefs consistent on slowly lifting the jet back across us through week 2. weak positive high anomolys return to europe.  coldies need to hope that the extended ens arent picking the right option and just reverting to average.

[UV-RAY]

ECM screaming southerly tracking LP end of run.........eyes down.  Xmas Day, calm, my punt is storm arrives eve and late Boxing Day

 

BFTP

I'm glad there a few others who see the many positives Fred, I was beginning to think I was viewing model output for another planet over the last few days.

[Matty M]

That secondary has returned on the 18z and could give a surprise blast of winds as it develops and pushes east.

 

[Matty M]

Trouble

 

[Rocheydub]

As they used to say in the 70's… Jeekers!

 

We'll be in trouble in our neck of the woods Matty. Not liking the look of that at all. I know GFS tends to overdo these systems, but there is fair consistency across all models now for this baby. Paying the price for our benign Autumn!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM looking better deep FI screaming southerly tracking LP...... as for Xmas Day, calm, my punt is storm arrives eve and late Boxing Day

 

BFTP

Huh?

Looks flat as a pancake in deep FI BFTP?

[Matty M]

As they used to say in the 70's… Jeekers!

 

We'll be in trouble in our neck of the woods Matty. Not liking the look of that at all. I know GFS tends to overdo these systems, but there is fair consistency across all models now for this baby. Paying the price for our benign Autumn!

Not for that baby on Saturday, very little support for that one.

 

Monday's system is separate and also a major threat! But more likely for the west and northwest.

This one has the east in focus if it were to develop as progged.

[Cloud 10]

Trouble

 

 

More trouble...

 

[Matty M]

More trouble...

 

gfs-0-81-3h.png

Yep but that is beginning to look like it will take the typical swing north just off the Irish west coast route.

 

Although obviously could change but odds stacked for that track.

This Saturday feature is a new addition and has cropped up on us.

[Rocheydub]

Not for that baby on Saturday, very little support for that one.

 

Monday's system is separate and also a major threat! But more likely for the west and northwest.

This one has the east in focus if it were to develop as progged.

Well, to be completely factual, you are correct… But the ensembles and the ECM showed the shortwave developing, so that is in itself, somewhat of a support. It is still a worry, looks dangerous…. 

[stewfox]

Similar set up to a 'untrained eye'

[Cloud 10]

Yep but that is beginning to look like it will take the typical swing north just off the Irish west coast route.

 

Although obviously could change but odds stacked for that track.

This Saturday feature is a new addition and has cropped up on us.

 

Yes,a nasty little feature if it comes off with severe gales for Northern England.

 

Edited December 19, 2013 by Cloud 10