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Scotland - Regional Discussion 16/12/2013 >

LomondSnowstorm

By LomondSnowstorm
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snow1975 Explorer

snow1975

Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
Posted

the snow line might go up soon with the winds going to start mixing with stuff further south

it is colder further north. Leuchars is 1C while its 3C in Edinburgh.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/EGPH.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/EGQL.html

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

Nooooo...Don't look Ethel! 18z looks horrific!......It's dropped the double centre  on this run, the low is closer in towards the northwest and it looks like sub 930mbs. Hope I'm wrong!

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windsock Newbie

windsock

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
Posted

18z is indeed horrific. It seems to be becoming slightly more 'U' shaped than 'V' shaped, so I guess that means a belt of stronger winds around the 'nucleus'. Looks like it won't clear Shetland until Thursday. Then the next system moves in on Friday....

Please, does anyone know or want to hazard a guess when we're going to get some settled weather ?

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

18z is indeed horrific. It seems to be becoming slightly more 'U' shaped than 'V' shaped, so I guess that means a belt of stronger winds around the 'nucleus'. Looks like it won't clear Shetland until Thursday. Then the next system moves in on Friday....

Please, does anyone know or want to hazard a guess when we're going to get some settled weather ?

 

we're in Scotland so NEVER! Posted Image

more again on the 28th

 

post-18233-0-63632600-1387750459_thumb.p

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windsock Newbie

windsock

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
Posted

BuriedUnderSnow, I feared you'd say that.

Now, you obviously know your weather, and I'm a weather numpty : Would I be right in thinking that we've been getting these non-stop lows for weeks on end because they're not blowing away east over Norway, but instead seem to be stalling over the Faroes for some reason then circling around each other in the north Atlantic drawing in yet more lows ? If so, what's causing this. Has something changed or "gone wrong" ?

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Swave Snow Aficionado

Swave Snow

Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
Posted

BuriedUnderSnow, I feared you'd say that.

Now, you obviously know your weather, and I'm a weather numpty : Would I be right in thinking that we've been getting these non-stop lows for weeks on end because they're not blowing away east over Norway, but instead seem to be stalling over the Faroes for some reason then circling around each other in the north Atlantic drawing in yet more lows ? If so, what's causing this. Has something changed or "gone wrong" ?

 

 

I would venture that it is related to the deep artic air sweeping out of north america into the atlantic

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

BuriedUnderSnow, I feared you'd say that.

Now, you obviously know your weather, and I'm a weather numpty : Would I be right in thinking that we've been getting these non-stop lows for weeks on end because they're not blowing away east over Norway, but instead seem to be stalling over the Faroes for some reason then circling around each other in the north Atlantic drawing in yet more lows ? If so, what's causing this. Has something changed or "gone wrong" ?

 

I think it might be due to where the PV is situated over eastern Canada just spitting a strong jet and low pressures at us and we are also sat underneath an upper trough the reason I think they are stalling over the faroes is due to pressure rising in the arctic which is blocking them from moving through freely. 

 

that's what I can see maybe someone else could tell me if I am right don't know if I am or not on this one.

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

GFS 18z is getting there with the pattern I have been looking towards although I would like it a little cleaner.

 

in the last chart the black arrow is something developing in that area that could help aid WAA and push heights into Greenland

 

post-18233-0-83084200-1387752635_thumb.ppost-18233-0-36370700-1387752637_thumb.ppost-18233-0-15989200-1387752638_thumb.ppost-18233-0-10195900-1387752653_thumb.ppost-18233-0-61302600-1387752653_thumb.ppost-18233-0-69396100-1387752654_thumb.p

 

hopefully this is the GFS sorting out the pattern we will see as this has cropped up quite a few times now hinting towards this.

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

I suppose the overnights will be a good guide. That and following events  throughout the country tomorrow would give us a better idea of what to expect? I am never quite sure re GFS outputs involving depth of lows but it does seem to be consistent enough with Meto's thoughts. Bet I'm up, as this lot is worrying me.

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

the NASA 12z has us under sustained damaging winds

 

post-18233-0-35824800-1387755714_thumb.ppost-18233-0-80563800-1387755714_thumb.ppost-18233-0-35106600-1387755715_thumb.ppost-18233-0-29108200-1387755716_thumb.ppost-18233-0-46590000-1387755717_thumb.ppost-18233-0-94661500-1387755717_thumb.ppost-18233-0-40923600-1387755718_thumb.ppost-18233-0-46009900-1387755731_thumb.ppost-18233-0-14303100-1387755732_thumb.ppost-18233-0-62996900-1387755732_thumb.ppost-18233-0-09352400-1387755733_thumb.ppost-18233-0-57478400-1387755733_thumb.ppost-18233-0-77390500-1387755742_thumb.p

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

I hate wind BUS. My least favourite weather. It can be dangerous and damaging. Oh well, nowt we can do about it other than  pick up the pieces and then pick up some more on Friday!Posted Image

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted (edited)

I hate wind BUS. My least favourite weather. It can be dangerous and damaging. Oh well, nowt we can do about it other than  pick up the pieces and then pick up some more on Friday!Posted Image

 

wind doesn't bother me as long as it doesn't do anything to my house and I don't mind storms like this I'd like to go see a hurricane but don't see that happening anytime in the near future so this will probably be the one of the very few storms in the Scotland we will get that will be anywhere close to that.

 

EDIT: although the last few years seem to have given us a few belters and we might see these continue in future years

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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EastLothianSnow Explorer

EastLothianSnow

Posted
  • Location: Wallyford, East Lothian
  • Location: Wallyford, East Lothian
Posted

Seems the media are forgetting the battering Scotland will take from this up coming storm! 

 

Should we expect a belt of the strongest winds to funnel through the central belt as is often the case or is the worst of this storm likely to be limited to the NW? 

 

Sleet showers here earlier, no snow! Posted Image

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

Seems the media are forgetting the battering Scotland will take from this up coming storm! 

 

Should we expect a belt of the strongest winds to funnel through the central belt as is often the case or is the worst of this storm likely to be limited to the NW? 

 

Sleet showers here earlier, no snow! Posted Image

 

at the moment it looks like the whole country could take a battering tomorrow will tell us more though as the storm has only just started to develop in the atlantic

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

EURO4 has it down to 928 then at end some pretty strong looking winds coming in

 

post-18233-0-75470800-1387760489_thumb.gpost-18233-0-38251000-1387760490_thumb.g

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

Our Xmas Eve Bomb is currently at 1012... 0100hrs.

post-7292-0-62006500-1387761095_thumb.gi

 

Meto have this plotted 8 hours from now at 970hPa - ABSOLUTE BOMB - or, UKMO are off track.... either way the jet sucks the living daylights out of this system at a rate 6hpa per hour. Bomb system definition is 24 hPa per hour, this happens in a Quarter of that time, drop between now and 0700 on UKMO is 42 hPa. Rapid ingestion of stratopsheric air. 

post-7292-0-68560200-1387761370_thumb.gi

 

Phenomenal synoptics - regardless of anything else incoming later. This gradient vs. this jet is simply off the grid, overnight yrno run will look spectacular.

 

 

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colrobs Apprentice

colrobs

Posted
  • Location: Kirkhill, Inverness
  • Location: Kirkhill, Inverness
Posted

Time to abandon ship ?, Leave the country ?.Europe or maybe the States ?.

 

Maybe not the States.

 

post-9399-0-10520500-1387762995_thumb.jp

 

"Quote" - The "particularly strong storm" threatened to frustrate travellers from Texas to Nova Scotia as it affected a 2,000-mile area.

 

From Sky News, pic Nasa

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1186097/deadly-us-storm-cuts-power-and-hits-flights

 

 

 

 

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LincolnSnowstorm Enthusiast

LincolnSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln
Posted (edited)

Our Xmas Eve Bomb is currently at 1012... 0100hrs.

Posted Image2013122300_eur_full_large.gif

 

Meto have this plotted 8 hours from now at 970hPa - ABSOLUTE BOMB - or, UKMO are off track.... either way the jet sucks the living daylights out of this system at a rate 6hpa per hour. Bomb system definition is 24 hPa per hour, this happens in a Quarter of that time, drop between now and 0700 on UKMO is 42 hPa. Rapid ingestion of stratopsheric air. 

Posted ImageUW18-21.gif

 

Phenomenal synoptics - regardless of anything else incoming later. This gradient vs. this jet is simply off the grid, overnight yrno run will look spectacular.

24 hPa per 24 hours = bomb, 42 in a lot less = like you say  Absolute bomb!  

 

anyone can take any  cat 2 hurricane and play top trumps to see if this is serious for example 960 hpa and 100mph 3 dead  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gustav_(2002)

Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Morning. Well, do you want the good news or the bad news? Actually there isn't any good news it's all bad! As far as I can tell, it's still on course, it's every bit as strong and it actually looks as if it is going to last longer. It's also coming in with snow at times!   GFS is showing a build up for here during the early hours tomorrow and has it raging by 9am right through the day and starting to ease slightly by 9pm-midnight. I really can't tell how deep the pressure is but looks to be around 930mbs and probably lower. I am not going to cherry pick charts, I don't have to as they are pretty much all the same.  Here are the 500s,850s and precipitation charts for midday tomorrow:

post-1989-0-74758500-1387775633_thumb.pn

post-1989-0-40965900-1387775666_thumb.pn

post-1989-0-89802500-1387775696_thumb.pn

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GraemeB Aficionado

GraemeB

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
Posted (edited)

Our Xmas Eve Bomb is currently at 1012... 0100hrs.

per hour, this happens in a Quarter of that time, drop between now and 0700 on UKMO is 42 hPa. Rapid ingestion of stratopsheric air. 

Posted ImageUW18-21.gif

 

Permission to call the incoming meto chart "Hurricane Willy" please sir.

 

Ah'll get  ma coat

Edited by GraemeB
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