scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion 16/12/2013 >

[LomondSnowstorm]

I slept through it. Xmas party goers in Dunfermline were hit by thunder, lightning and hailstones around 12am today. Kirkcaldy had a storm around 12.30am, it lasted 10-15 minutes. My sister heard loud thunder here at 1.10pm.

 

The last time I can remember a thunderstorm in December in Fife was in 1990. Either 27th or 28th, it rattled through the Clyde-Forth valley around 6pm. A big flash overhead knocked the power out and there was heavy hailstones. A couple of hours later it was snowing and lying.

 

Could've been the 27th - rather similar to the charts for this Thursday:

I've got a slight break between exams at the moment, with astrobiology Tuesday afternoon and maths on Thursday, so I'll not be posting much in the next week, and after that I'm off to Prague (which will depressingly will be as mild or even moreso than Scotland next weekend).

Some quite impressive convection likely to build up out in the Atlantic - this is the Skew-t for Tiree - so with even warmer Atlantic SSTs than the surface temperature progged here there could be some hefty squalls moving inland from the west. Cloud bases are progged at around 900hpa and capped at 400hpa, so the profile is ripe for Cb development:

Uppers aren't that impressive, mostly just -5Cs according to the latest GFS, but with such low air pressure it won't matter that much because 850hpa isn't particularly 'high' compared to normal. Wet Bulb Freezing levels are probably a better indicator, and at 300m maximum that's absolutely fine for snow:

925hpa temperatures are borderline but again pretty impressive given such low heights and the fact that we're talking about midday in a convective type setup:

 

Surface temperatures are progged at 3-4C initially across Central Scotland although more like 0C with even fairly modest height further north, and freezing levels will lower rapidly in any showers. Looking at January 1993 as a rough guide to temperatures in this kind of regime shows surprisingly high maxima given fallen snow was recorded almost every day from the 7th to the 20th:

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Glasgow_Airport/01-1993/31400.htm

For the main event the maximum temperature for the 11th was 3C and 4.2C the next day. Further east, Edinburgh Airport was, as expected, slightly lower, with maxima of 2.2C and 3.2 respectively:

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Edinburgh_Airport/01-1993/31600.htm

For the December 1990 thunderstorm maxima were similar at 3C for Edinburgh this time:

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Edinburgh_Airport/12-1990/31600.htm

Anyway, my point is that decent one off low ground snowfalls can occur with temperature not all that much below average, and while Thursday doesn't look quite like a repeat of January 1993 I wouldn't be at all surprised to see accumulations pretty much anywhere in Scotland. This is one of those setups which favours central Scotland in particular and I think we could be in for a treat if we don't see too many downgrades on the strength of the cold pool in the next 96 hours.

[lorenzo]

With the Atlantic super charged and delivering low upon low, a really active end to 2013 ahead, thought it best to kick off a new thread as we approach 2014.

 

Amazing number of hits on the last thread, and great to see this remain a really popular place for real-time discussion of Scottish Weather, thanks to all the regular contributors and would also like to extend a warm welcome to those of you who look in, and are yet to join in, the more the merrier.

 

 

45 pages , 25 K views. Great work folks !!!

 

On to a new thread for the countdown to 2014 here..

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78776-scotland-regional-discussion-16122013/

[over_the_rainbow]

ooh first to dirty Lorenzo's lovely new thread 

 

Just to add my folks had snow today - came to nothing but certainly must have been a few degrees colder up the road than here in Perth today.

Edited December 16, 2013 by over_the_rainbow

[West Highland Storm]

Just had really bright flash of Lightning and a loud peel of Thunder within 5 seconds a couple of miles north of Fort William.

[asjmcguire]

I setup a (complicated) weather marker in my digiguide to show me a list of upcoming TV programmes related to the weather. Here is a list for those interested:

 

18th - 01:05 - 4seven: Britain's Killer Storms

18th - 21:00 - more4: The Year Britain Froze

19th - 21:00 - more4: Is Our Weather Getting Worse

20th - 21:00 - more4: Snowstorm - Britain's Big Freeze

21st - 21:00 - more4: Snowstorm - Britain's Big Freeze

22nd - 21:00 - Quest: Raging Planet

24th - 21:00 - Quest: Raging Planet

26th - 21:00 - more4: The Year Britain Froze

26th - 22:00 - more4: Is Our Weather Getting Worse

28th - 17:00 - Yesterday: Weather That Changed The World

28th - 19:55 - more4: Snowstorm - Britain's Big Freeze

28th - 21:00 - more4: Britain's Killer Storms

29th - 09:00 - Yesterday: Weather That Changed The World

30th - 13:25 - Channel 5: Winter Road Rescue

 

We watched "Britain's Killer Storms" on Channel 4 the other night and it is well worth a watch if you haven't seen it yet.

Happy Festive Weather Watching

 

EDIT:

And if you are a digiguide user (and at this time of the year - you really should be), here is the search I am using for my weather marker (it's not perfect, but it drops most of the unrelated stuff)

("storm" or "storms" or "flood" or "flooding" or "snow" or "snowfall" or "freeze" or "freezing" or "thunderstorm" or "thunderstorms") AND ("wind" or "winds" or "worst" or "bizarre" or "unusual" or "deadly" or "extreme" or "winter")

Edited December 16, 2013 by Andrew Simon Jones

[chemikal]

With all the stormy weather forecast this week I thought I'd post an alternative music track that while not strictly a Xmas one it is seasonal. Something for those hankering for snow.

 

Ten Benson 'Snowman, Snowgirl'. I can't take the credit for video featuring quite a few snowmen. Some of them are pretty spectacular.

 

 

[aggy]

To be fair I'm awfy confused so much weather lows incoming canny keep track no much going on in the other discussion forum I take it it's no far enough south ah well

[Norrance]

ooh first to dirty Lorenzo's lovely new thread 

 

Just to add my folks had snow today - came to nothing but certainly must have been a few degrees colder up the road than here in Perth today.

Where's the folks OTR?

 

 A much cooler and showery day here. 3.5C with a fresh Westerly breeze currentLY.

 

Traffic Scotland showing snow falling at Glenogle just now.

Edited December 16, 2013 by Norrance

[snowy owl]

Where is everyone tonight? Awfy quiet.

 

More horrible windy weather to come wed/fri Not looking forward to this at all.

[Cheggers]

Pretty sure I saw a flash to my North West earlier, around 21:30. 

Anyhoo, a quieter day ended with an intense downpour.

 

Found another piccy from Saturday. Think Grangemouth residents had a squeaky bottom moment!!!

[BurntFishTrousers]

Big, incomin', dirty lookin', affy' super duperty Low 

[lorenzo]

LS - added your excellent summary from the last thread to this one, great starting point. 

 

18z deepens sees the low exit the main pulse of the upper jet and stall at 51 hrs.

 

So, a lively night Weds. night and an evening satellite run vs. overnight with initiation around 7am of Weds. morning.

 

Wonder what the UKMO will do with #emily in the next 24 hrs..

 

Pub run , throws in the works for Xmas Eve & Xmas Day..

 

Other than chasing Greenland High, Easterly or within 24/48 hrs of SSWs model watching doesn't get as dynamic as this..

 

 

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

Geminids now!

[Colsuth]

Geminids now!

Where about in the sky?  Clear sky in the north sea but canna see anything .

[Polar Gael]

Another morning of runs and we've edged 24 hours closer to a potential Ermintude (there won't be many leaves left on that tree behind her). 

 

 

 

 

If it verifies, Santa's trip to deliver prezzies to Kiltland is going to be a lively one...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! A wee breeze here, canny see much else 'cos it's still dark! Temp is 6c. Watching those charts with great interest and starting to tie everything down in the garden. Next few days look interesting and as for Christmas day.....well!!!! That could be quite scary, defo not for the fainthearted! ( Not that I'm suggesting that anyone in Kiltland is fainthearted.....far from it! ) I know it's probably too early yet to say how powerful that particular storm will get, but at least on here there is plenty of info available.....unlike some other weather related sites. Many thanks to all our very knowledgeable Kilties who keep us updated and give us a swift slap on the wrist if there is the merest suggestion of an over enthusiastic or unnecessary ramp! Thank you for all the time and trouble you all take to keep us informed and to explain to the amateur weather watchers like myself who can sometimes find it all a bit confusing! Let's hear it  furra Kilties!    

[Harve]

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Nevis-Range/6day/top

I reckon it'll be too windy for any pleasant skiing in the next few days, but at least the west looks to get some pretty heavy snowfall.

[blitzen]

Morning. 2.1/1,5c/SW. Quite a nice day really. Calm before tomorrow's storm I believe. We do appear to be stuck in a rut  with all this unsettled, relatively mild weather.

Joe B wonders if we could be in for changes come January? I hope so, as I need a snow fix now!

 

Joe B:

360 hour showing blocking trying to develop over the top.. a real forecast challenge for Jan GLOBALLY pic.twitter.com/8Vpt5I0h6x

 

Edited December 17, 2013 by Blitzen

[BurntFishTrousers]

06z run suggests many will have avoided severe gales except far north west. See what next couple of runs bring, but so far it's possibly not as bad as being made out.

Edited December 17, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

 

Sunny, breezy morning, 4c but ice was an issue earlier - a colleague went off the road near Milnathort (not hurt thankfully).

[DR(S)NO]

Dear Santa,Can you please let it be....................................

..................

[Stormeh]

Dear Santa,Can you please let it be....................................

image.jpg

image.jpg..................image.jpg

 

Yes that looks good, the higher up you are the better.

[Northernlights]

Nice bright day and currently 4.9c. Geese have been in our neighbours fields for months now .In the last few days some have been roosting in the fields all night.Sign of winds at the coast or are they feeding up as much as they can before snow arrives. I think the the geese models say real winter is on the way!

[edo]

Nice bright day and currently 4.9c. Geese have been in our neighbours fields for months now .In the last few days some have been roosting in the fields all night.Sign of winds at the coast or are they feeding up as much as they can before snow arrives. I think the the geese models say real winter is on the way!

 

there has been a distinct lack of animal modelling on this thread this year........i think we need to up our instances of this full proof forecasting procedure....... I have now not seen my grey squirrel in the garden for 5 months......... this tells me he is hibernating away because of impending snowmageddon or most likely the poor wee guy is broon bread!!

[milkmaid]

my goats aren't really forecasting snow they are normally eating machines ,a day or so before it arrives ,think they are just feeling soggy