South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 15/12/13 18z ------>

[AWD]

The NAE is still available and running alongside the EURO4 model as of now.

Until it gets withdrawn then we have 2 high res models to assess short term forecasting conundrums with. Although I agree, the NAE isn't the best, it will be interesting to see whether the EURO4 model is better.

[Nights King]

EURO4 model shows small accumulative snowfall projections for Exmoor, Dartmoor & The Mendips by Fri AM;

image.jpg

 

That sure would put a smile on ones face  

 

Lets see if it is still there by this evenings runs.. I think it would be better if it could be delayed slightly so it could fall after nightfall though.

[festivalking]

Just hope the suppose mini snow event includes the 200 m/asl not just 400 and upwards.

[AWD]

Just hope the suppose mini snow event includes the 200 m/asl not just 400 and upwards.

We can't see the freezing level associated with the EURO4 and NAE models but if we look at the GFS, the WBFL never falls below circa 400m, so anything to lower ground looks rather unlikely at this stage, perhaps rather reliant on evaporative cooling etc;

[shaky]

EURO4 model shows small accumulative snowfall projections for Exmoor, Dartmoor & The Mendips by Fri AM;

image.jpg

and also the midlands unbelievably!!

[MisterBeergut]

Yes it looks as though the MO model wants to turn the ppn to snow on the back edge at low levels, which seems reasonable.

[ARTDEMOLE]

9.3c. Humidity 94%  Breeze gusting to 14.8 km/h.

[Beast of Plympton]

So far today we have had 33.6mm of rain and highest gust has been 44mph. Currently 8.6c out there...

[Mapantz]

So far today we have had 33.6mm of rain and highest gust has been 44mph. Currently 8.6c out there...

That seems rather high? Is he wind affecting the rain gauge? Here's the 12hr accumulative map, nothing much over 12 to 15mm in a few local spots.

 

24hr map isn't close either must be an error on the gauge.

 

Edited December 18, 2013 by Mapantz

[Beast of Plympton]

That seems rather high? Is he wind affecting the rain gauge? Here's the 12hr accumulative map, nothing much over 12 to 15mm in a few local spots.

viewimage (6).png

 

24hr map isn't close either must be an error on the gauge.

 

hiradarzoomv42.png

I go by the weather station at Postbridge which is a mile down the road as mine does not have a rain gauge. They use a Davis Vantage Pro 2 apparently... Not sure if that good??!! Here is the link http://www.dartcom.co.uk/weather/

 

Its up to 36.6mm now.

Edited December 18, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Mapantz]

I go by the weather station at Postbridge which is a mile down the road as mine does not have a rain gauge. They use a Davis Vantage Pro 2 apparently... Not sure if that good??!! Here is the link http://www.dartcom.co.uk/weather/

 

Its up to 36.6mm now.

 

It's a good station but the gauges are notorious for poor rainfall results, mainly under reading by as much as 20% - that would put the total beyond 43mm lol

I'm wondering if the owner has adjusted the screws to compensate for the under reading but done it too much? The wind can cause one or two problems too.

[Nights King]

If anyone is close to a computer  take a look at latest bbc national video forecast!

 

Swathe of white snow on graphics across west country and he says falling to very low levels indeed.  

 

Cornwall and Devon actually looks best on that forecast..

Edited December 18, 2013 by mullender83

[Beast of Plympton]

It's a good station but the gauges are notorious for poor rainfall results, mainly under reading by as much as 20% - that would put the total beyond 43mm lol

I'm wondering if the owner has adjusted the screws to compensate for the under reading but done it too much? The wind can cause one or two problems too.

 

Thanks for the explanation.... I am not sure how it all works!! Perhaps it is wrong then!! I have to say though, been hammering down all day so whatever the totals, its definitely wet!!

[Beast of Plympton]

If anyone is close to a computer  take a look at latest bbc national video forecast!

 

Swathe of white snow on graphics across west country and he says falling to very low levels indeed.  

 

Cornwall and Devon actually looks best on that forecast..

 

Have just had a look.... that's pretty good!!

[legritter]

Just had a fairly strong gust here .truckers reporting strong gusts and hvy rain in some parts of Cornwall .This front when it comes through could be extremely powerfull looking at SAt ,,later tomorrow with just a bit of height looking increasingly wintry ,but we need to be nearer T12 to be more sure .wouldnt be surprised to see something wintry tomorrow evening going across the mendip Highway to me mother in laws  cheers gang .

[Skullzrulerz]

So close to getting snow

[Mapantz]

10.2C It's spitting with rain now, the wind has got up, 27mph is my top gust so far.

[gottolovethisweather]

With all this talk about transient snowfall let us not forget a posting from a certain someone three days ago.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78770-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-151213-18z/?p=2862661

 

Wet snow and a temporary covering is certainly possible tomorrow for those favoured localities at elevation and for the rest of us, potential for violent gusts of winds later today, still windy tomorrow and rash of Thundery and wintry type showers, so all in all exciting stuff.

Edited December 18, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Andy Bown]

Regarding the Princetown rainfall, it may well be correct if it's on an upslope as orographic enhancement means more rain on windward hillsides on days like this and less rain on the wind-sheltered downslopes.

 

Certainly a wet and blustery afternoon in Wiltshire with the wind gusts increasing in the last hour.

So close to getting snow

Why the sad face, it's 24 hours away so who says you won't get snow?

[AWD]

Also worth noting the intensity of the rainfall forecast later this afternoon, some right old heavy rain possible, with no doubt, an embedded squall somewhere amongst the mix;

And 24 hours later we have this;

Bring it on, some active weather at last, even if not all IMBY!

[gottolovethisweather]

Guys n gals, don't forget you can also get updates on the main event on the dedicated thread which is copied below.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78765-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-wednesday-18th-december-2013-onwards/?p=2864766]

[A.J]

just had a look at that BBC forecast, certainly ties in with some of the modelling and indeed with Ian's thoughts in the MOD last night.....certainly a half decent chance of seeing some snowfall here tomorrow afternoon/early evening.....BRING IT ON! 

[Beast of Plympton]

Regarding the Princetown rainfall, it may well be correct if it's on an upslope as orographic enhancement means more rain on windward hillsides on days like this and less rain on the wind-sheltered downslopes.

 

Certainly a wet and blustery afternoon in Wiltshire with the wind gusts increasing in the last hour.

Why the sad face, it's 24 hours away so who says you won't get snow?

 I see.... well its reading 46.8mm total so far today so definitely very wet!!

[littlemissy]

It is pretty violent out there now ..............I haven't heard the wind howling like this in a very longtime ..............................I don't have a weather station so can't give any figures -but any ideas ?

[Mapantz]

Having looked at the models regarding rainfall, it looks like one of those situations where some areas might not see a great deal whilst others may see quite a bit, the radar returns look very sporadic.